基于VDRAS的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统

An Analysis System Using Rapid-updating 4-D Variational Radar Data Assimilation Based on VDRAS

  • 摘要: 基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化 (RR4DVar) 技术和三维数值云模式,初步研发了一个针对对流尺度数值模拟的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统。系统通过对京津冀6部多普勒天气雷达资料进行RR4DVar同化,并融合5 min自动气象站观测和中尺度数值模式结果,可快速分析得到12~18 min更新的低层大气三维动力、热力场的对流尺度结构特征。针对2009年7月22日发生在京津冀的一次强风暴个例,通过一系列敏感性试验,并利用局地加密资料进行检验对比,表明有效的雷达资料RR4DVar同化及自动气象站和中尺度模式资料融合方案、恰当的中尺度背景场设置和动力约束方法是获得合理结果的关键。研究也表明:恰当的系统配置能够模拟出与对流生消发展密切相关的近风暴环境特征,包括低层入流、垂直风切变、低层辐合上升和暖舌等,以及风暴自身形成的冷池、出流等与风暴演变密切相关的对流尺度结构。

     

    Abstract: On the basis of further improvement and development of Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS), a rapid-updating 4-D variational analysis system focusing on convective-scale numerical simulation and aiming at nowcasting convective storm has been preliminarily set up and tuned. The system is based on rapid-updating 4-D variational assimilation (RR4DVar) techniques of multi-Doppler-radar observations, a 3-D cloud-scale numerical model with simplified microphysics scheme which includes rainwater evaporation cooling and precipitation sedimentation processes, and an adjoint model. The system can rapidly get low-level 3-D analysis fields including convective-scale dynamical, thermo-dynamical and microphysical structures with 12-18-min updating cycles by assimilating both reflectivity and radial velocity observations from 6 CINRAD Doppler radars in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using the RR4DVar scheme. It also integrates 5-min observations from regional auto weather stations (AWS) and forecast results from a meso-scale numerical model. Allowing for a strong convective storm case occurred in the region on 22 July 2009, simulated results from a series of sensitivity experiments including control, full-troposphere and full-microphysics, meso-scale background, and radar data assimilation are analyzed. These results are also compared and evaluated using intensive local observations from four wind profiler radars, two microwave radiometers, and two boundary layer towers. Some key factors for the system to produce appropriate analysis fields are illuminated. The system using low-level settings with the simplified microphysics scheme has comparable skill with full-troposphere settings and full-microphysics scheme. In the system, most significant RR4DVar assimilation of radar observations can be obtained using two or three scanning volumes from each radar within an assimilation window. As an effective supplement to radar observations on the ground, the AWS data is also very important on the RR4DVar assimilation of radar observations and simulations of dynamical and thermo-dynamical structures at several lower model levels. The meso-scale background and dynamical constraint for the RR4DVar assimilation of radar observations are sensitive to convective-scale simulation in both cold and warm start updating cycles. Results also indicate the system can produce robust pre-storm environment features including low-level inflows, vertical wind shear, low-level small-scale convergence, updraft and warm tongues. On the other hand, storm-associated convective-scale structures including cold pools and outflows can also be reasonably analyzed by the system.

     

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