一种基于地面实况的降雹风暴体客观标识方法

An Objective Hailstorm Labeling Algorithm Based on Ground Observation

  • 摘要: 标识工作是建立深度学习数据集的关键基础,对观测数据匮乏的冰雹等灾害性天气智能预报尤为重要。选取2008—2019年重庆地区灾情报告中有准确时间的13次降雹过程(分为参照集和验证集),利用模糊逻辑算法,建立基于地面实况的降雹风暴体客观标识方法。为获取冰雹与风暴体的合理匹配,选取风暴质心与降雹地点间距离、风暴最大反射率因子、45 dBZ反射率因子最大高度、最大垂直积分液态水含量、最大回波顶高作为判别因子。对于参照集,客观标识方法正确标识7次,其中有5次标识时间与灾情报告记录时间相差在6 min以内。对于验证集,算法标识正确率为100%。为了扩大检验范围,将算法用于无准确时间的22次降雹过程,并将结果与预报员人工标识结果进行比较后发现,二者往往标识的是同一风暴体。上述结果表明:该方法在时间信息模糊的情况下可进行标识。同时发现该方法不依赖于冰雹尺寸、发生时间及风暴体生命史长度,但对初始猜测位置、风暴体识别算法较为敏感。

     

    Abstract: Data labeling makes the key foundation of building data sets for deep learning, especially in the intelligent forecasts of severe weather, such as hail, the observations of which are lacking. Disaster report is a kind of information that describes the details of meteorological disasters which is collected by meteorological information officer. Due to the high coverage rate of informants throughout villages and communities, disaster report is considered to have good consistency and high spatial resolution. However, the vague description of disaster occurrence time in disaster report limits its application. To solve this problem, 13 hail cases(divided into reference set and verification set) with accurate occurrence time in hail reports in Chongqing during 2008-2019 are selected, and an objective hailstorm labeling algorithm based on actual hail observations is developed using fuzzy logic algorithm. In order to obtain a reasonable match between hail occurrence location and convective storm, the distance between the centroid of the storm and initial guess location of hail occurrence, the maximum values of reflectivity, height of 45 dBZ reflectivity, vertical integral liquid water content and echo top are selected as discriminant factors, and the storm is identified by the storm cell identification and tracking (SCIT) algorithm. In reference set, 7 hail cases can be labeled correctly and only 1 case is failed to identify storms. The time bias between the labeling time and ground disaster report is less than 6 minutes during 5 cases. Inspected by verification set (5 cases in 2019), the algorithm labeling accuracy is 100% and the matching degree ranges from 0.887 to 1.000. Furthermore, the algorithm is applied to 22 hailstorm labeling cases lacking accurate time, and the results are compared with the manual labeling results by forecasters. Subjective and objective methods tend to identify the same storm cell and have little impact on data set construction. Forecasters tend to label the same storm cell 6-12 minutes ahead. Further analysis shows that the size of hail has no significant effects on the labeling result. The algorithm is not sensitive to the occurrence time of hail disaster, and it can give reliable labeling results for both long time living storm and local hail disaster. However, when the identification algorithm fails to figure out storms, or the initial guess location deviation is large, it will have a significant negative impact on the labeling results.

     

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