作物发育模式重构及基于甘蔗的模拟检验

Reconstruction of Crop Development Model with Its Simulation Test Based on Sugarcane

  • 摘要: 发育进程是作物的生理年龄,发育模式是作物生长模型的时间指针。但目前的发育模式只关注某时段(日)气象条件对作物发育的影响,其准确率也难以满足作物生长模拟的需求。根据作物发育速率不仅与气象条件有关、还与其所处发育期有关的理论假设,重构发育进程模式,并利用1980—2019年我国甘蔗发育实测数据进行模式适应性分析,比较传统模式与重构模式的模拟能力。结果表明:重构模式中,发育单位日序模式和温度日序模式对甘蔗发育进程的适应性均较好,尤其在后期温度不断降低的发育进程以及低温年型的模拟中,其适应能力明显优于传统模式。重构及传统模式模拟能力从强到弱依次为发育单位日序模式、温度日序模式、响应适应模式、发育单位模式、发育单位温度修正模式、热量单位模式,均方根误差计算的模拟能力值依次为4.3,3.9,3.7,3.3,3.0,2.8。

     

    Abstract: Crop growth model describes the development and growth process of crop. Development process is the physiological age of crops, which is related to the morphological changes of crops, and is a landmark stage of crop growth to achieve qualitative change. Development process is the time indicator of crop growth model. Reasonable description of the crop development process is the premise of high accuracy of crop growth model. At present, although different crop development models have been developed and widely used in crop growth models, their simulation ability can hardly meet the needs of crop growth simulation. These models only focus on the impact of meteorological conditions in a certain period (day), but do not particularly consider the period of crop development, which may be an important factor for the low accuracy of model simulation.It is assumed that the development rate of a crop on a certain day is not only related to the meteorological conditions of that day, but also related to its development stage. The development stage of crop is represented by the date, so that the temperature-day (TAd) and development unit-day (CHUd) models are constructed. In addition, according to the principle of heat unit corrected by temperature model (THUa), the development unit corrected by temperature model (CHUa) is constructed. Based on the principle of response-adaptation of temperature model (RAM), the response-adaptation of development unit model (CHUr) is established.The adaptability of the development model for sugarcane is analyzed by using the field data of 30 agrometeorological stations in China from 1980 to 2019, and the advantages and disadvantages between the traditional development model and the reconstructed model are compared. The results show that CHUd and TAd model have better adaptability to simulate the development process of sugarcane, especially in the later stage of the development process when the temperature is decreasing. Compared with the original model (CHU), the adaptive ability of CHUa model for sugarcane decreases from seedling emergence to stem elongation but increases from stem elongation to maturity. The theoretical description of CHUr model is not tenable. Sorted by simulation ability, the order of development models is as follows: CHUd, TAd, RAM, CHU, CHUa and the heat unit (THU) model, and their simulation ability values (SCV) calculated by root mean square difference are 4.3, 3.9, 3.7, 3.3, 3.0 and 2.8, respectively.The reconstruction of the development model will further improve the CAMM and promote the development of crop growth simulation theory.

     

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