基于深度学习的京津冀地区短时降水预报订正

Short-term Precipitation Forecast Correction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Deep Learning

  • 摘要: 基于2022—2024年汛期综合分析与短时临近预报系统(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis System, INCA)降水预报以及京津冀降水观测数据, 采用U-Net深度学习模型, 结合TS评分和均方误差的加权函数作为损失函数, 对3~12 h短时降水预报进行订正, 开展包含降水季节特征、日变化特征、区域特征以及影响短时强降水的热力条件、动力条件在内的多种因子影响对比试验。结果表明:考虑多种因子影响的深度学习模型比单一因子深度学习模型对原始预报改进更明显, 可提高所有量级降水的TS评分;3~12 h预报中, 各量级降水的TS评分最大提升幅度分别为0.07、0.06、0.06、0.03;预报技巧改进明显的空间范围随降水强度(R)增大而减小, 对于R≥0.1 mm·h-1R≥5 mm·h-1量级降水, 京津冀大部分地区TS评分得到提升, 对于R≥10 mm·h-1R≥20 mm·h-1量级降水, 京津冀东部地区TS评分得到提升。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the quality of short-term precipitation forecast in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, a U-Net deep learning model is employed to correct short-term precipitation forecasts of 3-12 h based on the forecasting data of INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) System and observation data of automatic weather stations during the flood season from 2022 to 2024. The model employs a weighted combination of threat score (TS) and mean square error (MSE) as its loss function. The weight assigned to TS directly influences the model's performance. Through independent experiments, weighting coefficients assigned to TS within loss function are optimized for hourly correction models with lead times ranging from 3 to 12 h, with the following results: 1.2, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1, and 1.1, respectively. Comparative experiments are conducted to explore the impact of various influencing factors, including temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation, as well as the thermal and dynamic conditions that affect short-term heavy precipitation. Results indicate that incorporating temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation, as well as thermal and dynamic circulation conditions influencing precipitation, into the deep learning correction model significantly enhances its correction capability. A single-factor deep learning model only improves the forecast skill for precipitation rates of 5 mm·h-1 and above, while multi-factor deep learning model enhances the forecast skill for precipitation rates of 0.1, 5, 10, and 20 mm·h-1 and above. Multi-factor deep learning model significantly enhances the 3-12-h forecasting capabilities of INCA, with varying degrees of improvement based on precipitation intensity. TS can be increased by up to 0.07, 0.06, 0.06, and 0.03 compared to INCA forecast when the precipitation intensity is at least 0.1 mm·h-1, 5 mm·h-1, 10 mm·h-1, 20 mm·h-1. Multi-factor deep learning model enhances the forecasting accuracy of most stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region without increasing precipitation forecast errors. The spatial extent of improvement in TS varies with the intensity of precipitation. For precipitation intensities of at least 0.1 mm·h-1 and 5 mm·h-1, TS can be improved in most areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. For precipitation intensities of at least 10 mm·h-1 and 20 mm·h-1, TS can be improved in the eastern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.

     

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