中国区域逐10 min近地面温湿风实况分析产品

Development of a Real-time Near-surface Air Temperature, Humidity, and Wind Product with 10-min Resolution in China

  • 摘要: 围绕天气监测业务和智能网格预报业务需求,国家气象信息中心在已业务准入的中国区域逐1 h近地面温湿风实况分析产品基础上,利用分钟级质量控制、地形偏差订正及多重网格融合分析技术,集成地面站点分钟级观测和近地面模式预报产品,研制了2020年以来中国区域逐10 min近地面温湿风实况分析产品,产品时效为5 min。采用2020年11月共4320个时次的产品进行独立检验,评估表明:新研制的中国区域逐10 min产品与逐1 h产品质量相当,其中气温独立检验均方根误差为1.5 ℃,湿度均方根误差约为7.0%,纬向风和经向风风速均方根误差约为1.3 m·s-1。同时,与逐1 h产品相比,新研制产品提升了时间分辨率,利用研制的产品分别针对2025年3月寒潮过程、2022年北京通州的短时大风天气过程和2023年辽宁开原龙卷进行个例分析,结果表明:与逐1 h产品相比,新研制的逐10 min产品能够更加精细地刻画极端天气事件的过程,将近地面温湿风实况分析产品的业务能力由小时级提升到分钟级,有助于提升实况业务的产品服务能力。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the frequent occurrence of catastrophic extreme weather events has led to an increasing demand for meteorological analysis products that offer high temporal and spatial resolution as well as quality. National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC), on the basis of operational analysis products of 1-h resolution near-surface temperature, relative humidity and wind in China, eliminates abnormal values of observations from ground stations through the minute-level quality control technology, and resamples 10-min resolution background data from the near-surface model forecast data using spatio-temporal downscale analysis techniques. After estimating changes in air temperature caused by different heights through topographic data, biases of the near-surface temperature background data can be removed, and a real-time analysis system is constructed when parameters of the fusion analysis for air temperature, relative humidity and wind in China are optimized, which produce 10-min products since 2020 with time limit of 5 min. In product assessment, 4320 times of products in November 2020 are selected and evaluated using the national ground observatory, showing that the quality of 10-min product is comparable to that of 1-h product with error metrics of correlation coefficient, the mean error and the root mean square error (RMSE) are basically close to each other, and RMSE values of 10-min product for air temperature, relative humidity and wind are 1.5 ℃, 7.0% and 1.3 m·s-1 respectively, which are significantly better than those of the background field from model forecasts. At the same time, 3 application cases of 10-min products are shown, including the cold wave event in March 2025, the strong convective gale process in Tongzhou, Beijing in 2022 and the cyclone in Kaiyuan, Liaoning in 2023. Results indicate that these near-surface air temperature, relative humidity and wind in 10-min product can more finely characterize the process of these extreme weather events when compared with 1-h products, which improve the capability of meteorological operations from hourly to minutely level. At present, 10-min product is being utilized by the national and provincial meteorological departments for real-time operations.

     

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