中国XCO2无缝隙逐日数据集构建及时空分布

Construction and Spatiotemporal Distribution of a Seamless Daily XCO2 Dataset for China

  • 摘要: 二氧化碳(CO2)是关键温室气体,准确掌握其空间分布有助于实现碳达峰与碳中和目标。大气CO2柱平均干空气体积混合比(XCO2)是表征大气中CO2体积分数的重要指标。由于卫星观测的XCO2数据受限于狭窄的条带和云层等因素,常出现空间数据缺失,因此构建高精度时空无缝XCO2数据集尤为关键。基于轨道碳观测卫星2号(OCO-2)的XCO2观测值,结合多源环境因素,采用XGBoost模型构建了2015年1月—2024年3月中国地区0.05°×0.05°高精度无缝隙逐日XCO2数据集。模型的交叉验证和地面站点验证结果均显示优异的精度,且与瓦里关大气本底站的观测数据变化趋势一致,验证了数据集的高精度和可靠性。基于该数据集,发现中国XCO2的空间分布呈现东高西低特征,高值区主要集中在京津冀、长江三角洲、粤港澳等地区。全国年平均XCO2呈增长趋势,由2015年的401.00×10-6上升至2023年的419.91×10-6,年平均增长为2.36×10-6,但增长速率逐渐放缓。XCO2季节性波动呈冬春高、夏秋低趋势,可能与植被固碳活动相关。

     

    Abstract: With rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) volume fractions, global climate change brings about unprecedented challenges. In 2020, China sets “dual carbon” goals of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this context, the development of long-term, high-resolution datasets for atmospheric CO2 distribution is of significant practical importance for mitigating the greenhouse effect and promoting low-carbon circular development. The atmospheric carbon dioxide column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) is a critical indicator for characterizing the volume fraction of CO2 in atmosphere. Although satellite missions specifically designed for XCO2 observation provide extensive spatial coverage, the data collected often exhibit significant gaps due to interference from clouds, aerosols, and other environmental factors. To address this issue, the study uses XCO2 data from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite, combined with meteorological, vegetation, and other multi-source information, and employs machine learning techniques to construct a high-precision, seamless daily XCO2 dataset for China region at 0.05° resolution from January 2015 to March 2024. Among various modeling methods, the XGBoost algorithm exhibits the best performance in cross-validation (determination coefficient is 0.984, root mean square error is 0.894×10-6) and ground station validation (determination coefficient is 0.912, root mean square error is 1.720×10-6). Results indicate that XCO2 in China exhibits a distinct spatial gradient, with higher levels in the eastern regions and lower levels in the western regions. High XCO2 areas are primarily located in economically developed regions, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Region. In terms of temporal variation, the national annual average XCO2 has continuously increased, rising from 401.00×10-6 in 2015 to 419.91×10-6 in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2.36×10-6. This trend aligns closely with the average annual growth rate of 2.30×10-6 over the past decade reported in 2023 China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin by China Meteorological Administration. Although the concentration of XCO2 has continued to rise, the rate of growth has gradually slowed, decreasing from 3.17×10-6 between 2015 and 2016 to 2.20×10-6 between 2022 and 2023. Additionally, XCO2 exhibits distinct seasonal variation, with higher levels in spring and winter, and lower levels in summer and autumn. This seasonal variation may be linked to carbon sequestration effects of vegetation and is consistent with observations from Waliguan Atmospheric Baseline Station. These results may contribute to a deeper scientific understanding of the distribution characteristics of CO2 and its role in global climate change.

     

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