一次东北冷涡暴雨的中期预报不确定性

Medium-range Forecast Uncertainty for a Rainstorm Associated with Northeast Cold Vortex

  • 摘要: 针对 2022年6月27日东北冷涡暴雨过程,在暴雨成因分析的基础上,采用EOF分解及集合敏感性分析方法讨论数值模式中期预报的不确定性及其影响因子。结果表明:暴雨落区呈双雨带分布,西侧雨带与切变线及锋区低层的水汽辐合作用有关,东侧雨带与低空急流左侧的边界层水汽辐合作用有关。降水预报不确定性主要模态为东、西两条雨带的降水强度呈反位相特征,850 hPa低空急流东、西位置预报偏差以及低空急流出口区北侧的南风强度预报偏差对降水预报影响显著;500 hPa东北冷涡、850 hPa低空急流等敏感天气系统的强度、位置预报偏差导致水汽中心位置和水汽通量散度垂直结构出现差异,造成降水预报偏差。暴雨发生前,随着低空急流的建立和加强,预报误差在上游降水区快速发展,850 hPa经向风场预报的不确定性明显增大,造成此次暴雨预报的不确定性。

     

    Abstract: The case study examines the double-rainband torrential rainstorm that occurred in Northeast China on 27 June 2022, focusing on its formation mechanisms and forecasting errors. Large-scale circulation systems associated with this rainstorm are characterized by the northeast cold vortex, a low-level jet, a shear line, and a surface cyclone. The precipitation in the western rainband is associated with the shear line and the frontal zone located on the northwest flank of the cyclone. The convergence of water vapor at lower levels of the shear line is found to be conducive to the rainstorm in the western band. The low-level jet stream contributes to rainstorms in the eastern rainband by transporting warm, humid air. The convergence of water vapor in the boundary layer on the left flank of the low-level jet is found to be conducive to the rainstorm in the eastern band. The EOF decomposition of ensemble forecasts indicates that the dominant pattern of precipitation forecasts, which accounts for 28.4% of the variance, is linked to deviations in forecasts of two rainbands. Forecasts for eastern and western rainbands demonstrate an anti-phase relationship. There is a significant correlation between precipitation forecasts and sensitive systems, including the northeast cold vortex, low-level jet stream, and surface cyclones. For ensemble members that overestimate the intensity of these systems, the western rainband is marked by higher precipitation and exhibits a more westerly position, whereas the eastern rainband is characterized by lower precipitation and a more easterly position. EOF analysis indicates that the dominant pattern of the wind field ensemble forecast at 850 hPa is the east-west positional deviation of the low-level jet stream, which accounts for 34.0% of the variance. Ensemble members that predict a westward (or eastward) bias in the position of the low-level jet stream also tend to exhibit similar biases when forecasting positions of other sensitive systems and the water vapor center. As the water vapor convergence center is situated in the lower troposphere to the left of the low-level jet core, a westward (eastward) bias in the position of the low-level jet tends to enhance heavy precipitation in the western (eastern) rainband, thereby resulting in an anti-phase distribution of precipitation amounts in eastern and western rainbands. In 6-12 h preceding the onset of precipitation, as the low-level jet strengthens, the forecast error of the wind field at 850 hPa increases significantly. The forecast error originates in the upstream precipitation areas, resulting in substantial alterations to the dominant patterns of wind field forecast errors.

     

/

返回文章
返回