内蒙古通用航空气象预报技术架构与产品开发

Architecture Design and Product Development of Meteorological Forecast for General Aviation Technology in Inner Mongolia

  • 摘要: 通用航空飞行高度低,航空器重量轻,以日间目视飞行为主,对气象要素预报的准确率、时效性及对流性天气预报的精准性要求高。基于内蒙古通用航空气象预报服务需求,建立航空气象服务产品体系。采取多源资料融合、动力和智能降尺度、人工智能与模式集成等手段,围绕航空气象三大服务领域(机场、进近区和航路),开展机场强对流、沙尘能见度、精细化风场及航路危险天气等预报预警产品研发,可为内蒙古5个通用航空机场和19个支(干)线机场的气象服务提供技术支撑。产品检验结果表明:降水、能见度和风场要素预报准确率较高,并能预报出天气转折时段,可满足机场预报服务需求;沙尘、对流云等空间预报产品可较准确覆盖落区。但短时强降水预报量偏小,风场变化预报不理想,对能见度500 m以下的强沙尘暴预报能力偏弱,航路危险天气存在个别空报等不足,尚有进一步提升的空间。

     

    Abstract: General aviation flights operate at lower altitude with lighter aircraft weight, primarily relying on daytime visual flight. This operational mode imposes higher requirements on accuracy, refinement, and timeliness in meteorological elements forecasting compared to ordinary weather forecasts. Additionally, precise predictions of convective weather phenomena such as turbulence, convective clouds, thunderstorms are critical. Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau providing meteorological services for 5 general aviation airports, carries out service product research focusing on 3 key aviation meteorology domains: Airports, approach areas and flight routes. Based on the forecast service requirement, a system of aviation meteorological service products has been established, and the studies are applied to general aviation meteorological services. Forecast products and technical methods are systematically introduced, which mainly consist of airport refined elements forecasts including 1-h forecasts of wind, visibility, cloud cover, and temperature over a 72-h period, as well as estimations of visual obstacles such as precipitation and sand-dust. These are applicable to the routine terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) for general aviation airports, runway crosswind and runway visual range (RVR) forecasts. Disastrous weather warnings for the approach area comprise several key components. Firstly, dust visibility forecasting utilizes multi-mode integration, machine learning and satellite data inversion techniques. Secondly, short-term warnings for strong convective weather are issued based on multi-source data merging, deep learning, optical flow method, and localized Radar Operational Software Engineering System. Finally, low-level wind field forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 500 m are achieved based on dynamic downscaling and intelligent downscaling technologies. A dangerous weather forecast for air routes is generated using numerical forecast statistical interpretation techniques. This forecast includes predictions for the turbulence index, icing index, and convective clouds. Products can fulfill the forecast service demand for 5 general aviation airports and 19 branch (main) airports in Inner Mongolia. Evaluation results indicate that the accuracy rates for precipitation, visibility, and wind forecasts are relatively high, and they can effectively predict changes in weather conditions. However, there are some limitations: The short-term heavy precipitation is relatively small, the wind field change forecast falls short of expectations, and the forecast ability for strong sandstorms is relatively weak. Although the convective cloud area along air routes can be predicted, there is also over-forecasting problem. Moreover, in light of the current status and deficiencies of aviation meteorological services in Inner Mongolia, the objective forecasting methods applicable to aviation meteorological services are explored.

     

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