火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究

Numerical Simulation of Volcanic Impact on Climate

  • 摘要: 文章系统地总结了火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究,主要结论如下:近百年至千年的气候变化和火山活动关系密切,强火山喷发可造成平流层4℃以上的增温和地表年、月平均温度约0.4℃、1℃的下降。地表温度下降的时空分布受许多因素的影响,如火山喷发特征(包括喷发位置、季节、强度等);海陆分布;火山气溶胶的光学特性;及其由直接辐射强迫引起的经向潜热输送的变化等等。同时还回顾了1991年皮纳图博喷发的有关研究及其对全球气候的可能影响的数值模拟工作。

     

    Abstract: The results of the numerical simulations in Volcano-climate research are synthetically summarized. These simulation results show that the climate change in recent hundred to thousand years is closely related to the volcanism. The large volcano eruption would produce stratospheric warming by 4℃, yearly global-averaged surface cooling by 0.4℃, and monthly about 1℃, respectively. The spatial-temporal characteristics of the temperature drop connect with many factors, such as the eruption features (including latitude location, season, intensity of eruption and so on), the thermodynamic difference between land and sea, the optical properties of the stratospheric aerosols, the change of the meridional latent heat transport caused by the direct radiative forcing, and so on. The research findings concerning Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and its potential climate impact are reviewed.

     

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