1993年LAFS数值降水预报产品评价

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts for 1993 from Limited-area Analysis Forecast System

  • 摘要: 应用天气学和统计学方法对1993年LAFS数值降水预报产品进行检验。结果表明:多数主要降水过程预报较好;全年降水10mm级和25mm级降水预报准确率高于50mm级降水的准确率;南方降水预报水平比其它地区高,高原地区最差;降水预报范围过大是LAFS的一大弱点。

     

    Abstract: Synoptic and statistic methods are employed to verify the precipitation forecasts for 1993 from LAFS. The results show that the forecasts for most main precipitation events are successful; the accuracies of moderate and heavy rain predictions are higher than those of torrential rain ones: the accuracy of precipitation predictions for South China is higher than that over the rest parts of China, unfortunately, and the lowest for Qinghai –Tibet Plateau. It is the defects in LAFS that the area of precipitation forecasts is too large.

     

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