用Jenkinson法推算山东年最大日雨量重现期值的初探

Preliminary Study of Annual Maximum Diurnal Precipitation for Reappearance Periods in Shandong Province with Jenkinson Method

摘要: 该文简要介绍用Jenkinson法计算山东地区的年最大日雨量不同的重现期值，得到初步结果：13个台拟合较佳，3个台拟合较差。笔者认为要得到较为符合实际的结果，除了要继续探讨应用其它统计理论分布来求算年最大日雨量重现期值外，还应考虑与物理因子放大法结合起来互为修正。

Abstract: The paper briefly introduces the Jenkinson method for estimating annual naximum diurnal precipitation in various reappearance periods. The results show that the fitting rates in 13 of 16 weather stations are better and other three stations worse. It is suggested that in order to get more accurate values, the physical factor amplified method besides various statistical methods should be taken into consideration to modifying for each other