北欧数值预报系统HIRLAM在中国的应用——长江流域暴雨的预报试验

Application of the Hirlam System in China — Torrential Rain Forecasting Experiments in Yangtze River Valley

  • 摘要: 将北欧有限区域模式HIRLAM应用于中国地区,以检验该模式在定量预报夏季长江流域暴雨方面的能力。3次长江流域暴雨个例的预报试验表明;0~24 h的累积雨量预报是比较成功的,能够报出长江流域大部分日降水50 mm以上的暴雨区;24~48 h累积雨量预报的质量各个例有较大差异,总体上比0~24 h预报质量有相当大的下降,尤其是在50 mm以上暴雨区的预报方面能力较差。

     

    Abstract: The HIRLAM system was used in China to test its ability in forecasting the summer torrential rain in Yangtze River valley. The experiments of three selected torrential rain cases show 0 ~ 24 h accumulated rainfall forecasts are quite successful, being able to reproduce most of the observed torrential rain areas (daily rainfall≥50 mm) in the Yangtze River valley. The 24 ~ 48 h accumulated rainfall forecasts vary with different cases. Some cases are successful, some are failure. On the whole 24 ~ 48 h rainfall forecasts are worse than 0 ~ 24 h forecasts, especially for the forecast of daily rainfall≥50 mm.

     

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