西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN TIBET DURING THE PAST FORTY YEARS

  • 摘要: 应用西藏1952~1995年温度序列资料, 对其基本气候特征、年代变化、气候突变、振荡周期、异常冷暖、变化趋势等进行了分析.结果表明:年与各季气温大都具有3个暖期和2个冷期, 60年代是最冷的10年, 以秋季降温最明显, 80年代中后期至90年代气温偏高. 22年、11年、3~4年是年与各季气温较为显著的周期.气候突变出现在60年代初和80年代初. 60年代、70年代多异常偏冷年, 80年代多异常偏暖年, 多发生在夏季和冬季, 90年代, 大多数年份发生气温异常. 40年来, 西藏年平均气温以0.065 ℃/10a的倾向率上升, 近10年春秋季增温率最大.

     

    Abstract: Using the mean annual temperature data from 1952 to 1995, the climatic characteristics, interdecadal variation, climate accident, oscillation period, abnormal warm and cold variation trend are analyzed. The results show that there exist three warm periods and two cold periods for annual and seasonal temperature, 1960′s was the coldest decade, the temperature decreasing was most obvious in autumn, and the temperature was higher during the period of mid and last 1980′s and 1990′s. The periods of 22-year, 11-year and 3 or 4-year variation were significant. Climate catastrophes occurred in the early 1960′s and 1980′s. There were more anomalous cold years in 1960′s and 1970′s, whereas anomalous warm years in 1980′s. In 1990′s, the mean annual temperature of most years was anomalous. In addition, the linear trend of the warming for mean annual temperature over Tibet during the last forty years indicated an increase of 0.065 ℃/10a and the greatest warming trend occurred in the spring and autumn of the last 10 years.

     

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