美国NCEP/NCAR近50年全球再分析资料在我国气候变化研究中可信度的初步分析

CONFIDENCE ANALYSIS OF NCEP/NCAR 50-YEAR GLOBAL REANALYZED DATA IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH IN CHINA

摘要: 对美国全球再分析资料在中国气候变化研究当中的可信度, 进行了初步的分析与检验, 结果表明: NCEP资料在对气候变化长期趋势变化的研究中, 不确定性较大, 通过对温度和气压的比较分析, 可看出, NCEP资料在我国东部和低纬的可信度比我国西部和高纬的高; 温度的可靠性比气压好; 1979年以后的NCEP资料的可信度高于前期。

Abstract: The confidence of the NCEP/NCAR 50-year Reanalyzed data in climatic change research in China has been examined and the results show that in the reanalyzed data there exist some uncertainties in studying the trends of climatic change. The confidence of the reanalyzed data is better in the eastern and southern parts of China than in the western and northern for surface temperature and surface pressure. The surface temperature is more useful than surface pressure. The reanalyzed data is better after 1979 than before 1979.