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集合预报的现状和前景

杜钧

杜钧. 集合预报的现状和前景. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.
引用本文: 杜钧. 集合预报的现状和前景. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.
Jun Du. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.
Citation: Jun Du. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.

集合预报的现状和前景

PRESENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL PREDICTION

  • 摘要: 综合论述了近年来已在国际上引起高度重视的新一代动力随机预报方法 ——— 集合预报。 随着计算机技术的迅猛发展和由于大气初值和数值模式中物理过程存在着不确定性的事实, 这一方法无疑代表了数值天气预报未来演变发展的方向。 未来的天气预报产品预计将从“决定论”的预报转变为“随机论”的预报来正确地表达气象科学中这一所谓“可预报性问题”, 以便更好地为用户服务。 文中扼要地叙述了集合预报的概念、基本问题及其最新的研究动态和发展, 包括(1)如何建立和评估一个集合预报系统;(2)如何正确地表征大气初值和模式物理过程的不确定性与随机性;(3)如何从集合预报中提炼有用的预报信息和合理地解释、检验集合预报的产品, 特别是概率预报。 除了直接在天气预报上的应用, 还提到集合预报在气象观测和资料同化方面应用的动态, 以引起有关研究人员的注意。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2001-05-02
  • 修回日期:  2001-07-08
  • 刊出日期:  2002-02-28

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