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近30年人类活动对东亚地区气候变化影响的检测与评估
DETECTION AND EVALUATION OF EFFECTOF HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON CLIMATIC CHANGE IN EAST ASIA IN RECENT 30 YEARS
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摘要: 利用近30年 (1961~1990年) 观测的温度 (包括平均、最高、最低)、降水、日较差、水汽的季和年平均资料, 对IPCC提供的5个全球海气耦合模式 (ECHAM4, HADCM2, GFDL, CGCM1, CSIRO) 在同样时段只考虑CO2等温室气体的影响和既有CO2等温室气体又有气溶胶的影响两种情形对东亚地区气候变化进行了检测。分析表明, 考虑温室气体与硫化物气溶胶作用, 冬季最低温度模拟效果较只考虑温室气体与观测更接近。结果还表明, 在两种情形下, 这些模式对东亚和中国地区的气候都有一定的模拟能力, 但同时各个模式的模拟场也都有各自的系统误差; 气溶胶的作用使东亚地区气温下降; 从相关系数计算表明, 模拟最好的变量是温度, 其次是水汽和降水, 最差的是日较差; 在空间的分布上, 各变量冬季的模拟效果最好; 考虑总体情况, ECHAM4与HADCM2两个模式对东亚和中国地区的气候模拟效果在5个模式中是最好的。Abstract: In the context of annual and seasonal mean observations of temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure from 1961 to 1990, investigated is climatic changes over East Asia due to the effect of greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol based on five IPCC models (ECHAM4, HADCM2, GFDL, CGCM1, CSIRO).Results showthat minimum temperature is closer to observations w hen considering the ef fect of CO2 +SO2 than only CO2 in winter.Result s indicate that these models certainly have the capability of modeling climatic changes in East Asia, but they create systematic errors.In the light of correlation coefficient, the study shows that temperature modeling is the best; the second is vapor pressure and precipitation; then diurnal temperature range.For all variables, the spatial distributions in winter are simulated best.Generally speaking, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 arethe best in simulating climatic changes over East Asia in f ive models.
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表 1 5个全球海气耦合模式及数值试验设计简介
表 2 近30年 (1961~1990年) 观测的和5个全球海气耦合模式模拟的全球年平均表面气温 (A, 单位: ℃) 与降水量 (B, 单位: mm/d) 统计分析表
表 3 5个全球海气耦合模式模拟东亚区域的评估与检测结果
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