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基于GIS技术的广东荔枝寒害监测预警研究
RESEARCH ON REAL-TIME COLD-DISASTER WATCHING AND PREDICTION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE BASED ON GIS TECHNOLOGY
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摘要: 基于GIS技术和气候学模型，融合土地利用、海拔高度、坡度、坡向等地理信息，对平均气温、最低气温资料进行较高空间分辨率的地理订正，结合冬季经济林果的生长发育状况和受害指标，实现对广东寒害发生发展及其强度、范围的实时动态监测、预警。关键技术与结论：（1）采用过程降温幅度和过程极端最低气温2个因子定义寒害指标，克服传统业务指标局限性；（2）根据T213数值预报产品，采用MOS预报方程，实现广东省86个地面气象站的气温预报；(3) 采用包括经度、纬度、海拔高度3因子的地理订正模型，并进一步采用坡度、坡向地理订正技术，获得了较好效果。最后以1999年12月寒害过程为例检验了监测效果。Abstract: Based on GIS techniques and a climatology model using several types of geographic data such as land-use information, longitude, latitude, altitude, slope grade and direction, etc., cold-disaster data are corrected according to specific geographic details. Considering growing conditions and cold-index of winter economic fruit trees, a method is presented, by which when the cold-disaster occurs, its developing condition, intensity and area can be watched and predicted in real time and dynamically. The key techniques and conclusions are: (1) The cold disaster index is defined based on two factors (temperature dropping range and extreme lower temperature during the course) to offset the disadvantage of the conventional operation system. (2) Based on the output of Numerical Forecast Model T213 (developed in China) and the MOS (Model Output Statistics) forecast equation, cold disaster forecast for 86 ground meteorological stations in Guangdong Province is made. (3) The geographical correction model considering slope grade and slope and slope direction information together with three general factors (longitude, latitude and altitude) is adopted and get a good result.
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Key words:
- Guangdong;
- Cold disaster;
- Geographical correction;
- GIS
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表 1 寒害指标和标准
表 2 广东 (86个站)1971~2000年寒害站次统计
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