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对流天气临近预报技术的发展与研究进展

陈明轩 俞小鼎 谭晓光 王迎春

陈明轩, 俞小鼎, 谭晓光, 等. 对流天气临近预报技术的发展与研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(6): 754-766..
引用本文: 陈明轩, 俞小鼎, 谭晓光, 等. 对流天气临近预报技术的发展与研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.
Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.
Citation: Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.

对流天气临近预报技术的发展与研究进展

资助项目: 

北京市重大科技计划项目“奥运会气象保障科学技术试验与研究” H020620190091

“十五”国家科技攻关计划课题“奥运气象保障技术研究” 2002BA904B05

“十五”国家科技攻关计划课题奥运科技专项“北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划关键技术研究” 2003BA904B08

A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOWCASTING FOR CONVECTIVE STORMS

  • 摘要: 目前,临近预报技术主要包括雷暴识别追踪和外推预报技术、数值预报技术以及以分析观测资料为主的概念模型预报技术等。其中,识别追踪和外推预报技术主要以雷达资料为基础,在这方面,交叉相关外推和回波特征追踪识别外推是比较成熟的技术,已经用于许多的临近预报业务系统中,其缺陷是预报时效较短,准确率也不是很高。随着精细数值天气预报技术和计算机技术的发展,利用多普勒天气雷达资料和其它中小尺度观测资料进行数值模式初始化,来预报雷暴的发生、发展和消亡已经成为一个研究的热点,该技术发展很快但还不成熟。概念模型预报技术主要是通过综合分析多种中小尺度观测资料,包括雷达和气象卫星资料等,在此基础上建立雷暴发生、发展和消亡的概念模型,特别是边界层辐合线和强对流的密切关系等,再结合数值模式分析预报和其它外推技术的结果,然后建立雷暴临近预报的专家系统,其不但可以获取雷暴和对流降水移动、发展的信息,还可以预报它们的生成和消亡。检验和定性评估也表明,将多种资料和技术集于一体的概念模型专家系统,其临近预报的准确率最高,时效也最长,是临近预报技术未来发展的主要趋势之一。NCAR的Auto Nowcaster系统是雷暴临近预报概念模型专家系统的一个典型代表。
  • 图  1  交叉相关追踪法示意图

    图  2  TITAN对风暴单体追踪的一个例子[19]

    图  3  使用交叉相关法对一定反射率阈值之上的区域追踪的例子[20]

    (图中箭头给出了雷达反演的风场信息)

    图  4  由TITAN系统获得的单体风暴 (a) 和多单体及超级单体风暴 (b) 个例的生命史统计结果[23]

    图  5  Auto-Now caster (ANC) 系统流程框图

    图  6  各种预报方法对风暴临近预报准确性的定性评估[19]

    (假定各种方法预报的空间尺度均可达几公里)

    表  1  几种方法对风暴发生和消亡30 min临近预报的检验[19]

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