我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析
LONG-TERMVARIATION PATTERN AND FUTURE TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS OF SONGHUAJIANG AND LIAOHE RIVERS
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摘要: 利用1881~2002年我国东北地区的月、季降水资料,采用历史曲线分析、功率谱分析、小波变换等方法,重点分析了松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律。结果表明:松花江流域和辽河流域的降水都存在着明显的年代际变化,松花江流域降水以27~30年周期为主,辽河流域降水周期比松花江流域略长,大概为35~38年左右。根据降水自身演变规律及自回归方法预测的结果,估计未来5~10年,松花江流域仍将处于少雨期,辽河流域少雨期维持时间可能会稍长一些。Abstract: Study on the precipitation variation features for the valley s of the Songhuajiang and Liaohe rivers is undertaken by means of a t rend analysis, power spectral method and wavelet transform in terms of the monthly and seasonal precipitation data from 1881 to 2002.Results indicate that a remarkable interdecadal variation is inherent in the precipitation of the target region, dominated by 27-30 (35-38)year periods for the rainfall in the Song hua jiang (Liaohe)valleys.Based on the evolution of the rainfall itself and auto-regression estimationitis inferred that the former (latter)w ill remain in a drier (a still longer rain-deficient)stage in 5-10 years to follow.