气候和气候变化领域的研究进展

Some Advances in Climate and Climate Change Research

  • 摘要: 该文回顾了过去几十年来中国气象科学研究院在气候和气候变化研究方面的成果, 主要包括对我国历史气候资料的恢复、重建和整理, 气候区划, 对我国气温和降水的研究, 对青藏高原温度和降水、近地层与边界层地-气过程, 大气热源特征和臭氧变化的研究, 古气候模拟, 对气候变化的预测理论和方法以及气候和气候变化对我国社会、经济的影响等方面的研究。近50年中国气象科学研究院收集大量气候资料并整理出版了《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》; 对风能等资源进行了气候区划; 明确了近几十年中国地区在20世纪40年代和90年代出现了两个暖期, 20世纪50—60年代出现了相对冷期; 在全球变暖的背景下, 以四川为中心的西南地区自20世纪50年代到80年代一直在变冷; 20世纪80年代以后, 多雨带由华北南移到长江中下游地区; 提出青藏高原近地层与边界层地-气过程的综合物理图像; 发现青藏高原夏季臭氧低值中心; 模拟出青藏高原隆起过程中中国气候变化特征; 揭示出东亚季风环流系统及其成员; 设计了多种预报方法; 还将气候和气候变化研究成果向国家经济转化。

     

    Abstract: Some advances in Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in climate and climate change research are reported, which include the recovery, reconstruction and processing of historical documents, the climatic zoning division, the variations of air temperature and precipitation in China, the features of air temperature and precipitation, the land-atmosphere process on the ground layer and the boundary layer, the heat source/sink and the ozone in the Tibetan Plateau, the simulation on paleoclimate, the theories and methods of predicting the climate change and the influence of the climate change on the society and the economy. In the recent 50 years, a lot of climate data are selected and "Precipitation Distribution Maps in China in recent 500 Years" is published. Wind energy resource zone is defined. It is confirmed that there are two warm periods in 1940s and 1990s and a relative cool period during 1950s—1960s. Under the context of global warming, the southwest region centered in Sichuan Province cools from 1950s until 1980s in China; the rainy zone shifts from North China to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The synthetical physical image is indicated. The low value center of summer ozone in the Tibetan Plateau is found. The climate change features is simulated during the Tibetan Plateau apophysis. The monsoon circulation system in East Asia and its members are revealed. Many prediction methods are designed. The research achievements are also transferred to the economic development.

     

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