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重庆地区年气温与降水量变化特征及对NPP的影响
Features of Annual Temperature and Precipitation Variety with the Effects on NPP in Chongqing
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摘要: 选取重庆34个测站1959—2001年共43年逐月平均气温和降水量资料, 利用Thornth-waite Memoriae模型, 即根据植物生物产量与年平均气温、年降水量之间的关系用实际蒸散量估算NPP (净第一性生产力), 采用EOF及MHF小波等方法分析重庆地区年平均气温、降水量及NPP的时空变化特征及相互关系, 最后采用Thornth-waite Memoriae模型分析气温、降水变化对NPP的影响, 并结合未来气候预测结果对NPP的变化进行了预估。结果表明:重庆区域的年平均气温、年总降水量及NPP空间变化均比较有规律, 在整个时间域内, 气温呈下降趋势, 而降水变化趋势不明显, NPP略有下降, 但它们都具有明显的阶段性变化特征, NPP与降水的变化趋势比较一致; 在不同时间尺度上, NPP的变化趋势与降水接近, 在10年时间尺度以下时, 它与气温变化关系不明显, NPP与降水的年际振动特征明显, 而气温的年代际振动特征较显著; 重庆地区“暖湿型”气候对NPP增加最有利, 而“冷干型”气候对NPP增加最不利, 未来50年内重庆地区气温及降水变化趋势将有利于NPP的增加, 2030年前后可能达到最大值。Abstract: In terms of mean temperature and precipitation data of 34 observation stations in Chongqing from 1959 to 2001 the NPP is calculated using Leith's famous Thornthwaite Memoriae model. Based on EOF and MHF wavelet the variations of temperature, precipitation, NPP and their relations are analyzed. The effects of temperature and precipitation on NPP are discussed and the prediction results in the future and possible increase extent of the NPP in Chongqing are discovered. Results show that there are consistent distributing characters among annual temperature, precipitation and NPP in Chongqing. The variation tendency of annual temperature is descend, that of precipitation is unconspicuous, and that of NPP is descend slightly during the whole times. But they all have their own obvious staggered change features, and the variation tendency of precipitation and NPP are approximate. The variation tendency of climatic productivity strongly resembles that of rainfall in multi-time scales, but it is not consanguineous to that of temperature in less than 10 years scales. The quasi-period of temperature series is main about 10 years and those of precipitation and NPP series is main about 2 years from 1959 to 2003. The interannual oscillations of precipitation and NPP are strong, and interdecadal oscillations of temperature are strong. The increase or decrease of mean temperature or precipitation result in corresponding change of the NPP. The NPP increase by degrees while only temperature or precipitation raises. The warm-wet type climate is most advantageous for NPP but cold-dry type one is most disadvantageous. The NPP will increase 11.2% or so controlled by the former climate type but lessen 12.5% or so controlled by the latter climate type. Correlative climate prediction results show that the temperature and precipitation will both increase little and so the increase scope of the NPP in Chongqing will be 0.3%—3.9% in 2010, but 6.7%—10.0% in 2030 because the temperature and precipitation will both increase much, and 4.4%—8.4% in 2050 while the temperature will continue increase but the precipitation will increase indistinctively. In the coming 50 years the climatic variation tendency will be propitious to increase of NPP and the NPP will be top in 2030 or so.
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图 1 重庆地区1959—2001年年平均气温EOF分解第一特征向量分布图 (a) 和对应时间系数图 (b)
(虚线为线性趋势, 粗实线为5项多项式拟合曲线)
Fig. 1 The 1st eigenvector of EOF analyses (a) and relevant time coefficient (b) of annual mean temperature in 1959—2001 of Chongqing (dashed line is line trend, thick solid line is 5 term polynomial fitting curve)
图 4 重庆地区年平均气温 (a)、降水量 (b) 及NPP (c) 与相应的TEOF1相关系数分布图
Fig. 4 The figures of correlation coefficients between relevant TEOF1 and annual mean temperature (a) or precipitation (b) and NPP (c) series in Chongqing
图 5 时间尺度为20 a (a), 10 a (b) 和3 a (c) 气温、降水量及NPP的变化趋势及小波方差 (d)
Fig. 5 The air temperature, precipitation and NPP change tendencies on 20 a (a), 10 a (b) and 3 a (c) time scales and their wavelet variances (d)
表 1 重庆34个测站分布
Table 1 Distribution of 34 observation stations in Chongqing
表 2 重庆地区年平均气温和年降水量变化情景下NPP变化百分率 (单位:%)
Table 2 Percentage change of the NPP under the changing conditions of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in Chongqing (unit:%)
表 3 重庆未来气候的预测结果及NPP的可能增幅
Table 3 The climatic prediction results in the future and the possible increase extent of the NPP in Chongqing
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