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未来我国极端温度事件变化情景分析
Scenario Analyses on Future Changes of Extreme Temperature Events over China
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摘要: 基于Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS（Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies）单向嵌套该中心全球海-气耦合气候模式HadCM3高分辨率的大气部分HadAM3P, 检验PRECIS对我国气候基准时段（1961—1990年）极端温度事件的模拟能力, 分析IPCCSRES（Special Reporton Emission Scenarios）B2情景下未来2071—2100年相对于气候基准时段我国极端温度事件的变化响应。与观测资料的对比分析表明：PRECIS能够较好地模拟我国气候基准时段极端温度事件的局地分布特征。IPCC SRESB2情景下, 预估未来2071—2100年我国大部分地区高温日数出现频率均比气候基准时段高5倍以上; 霜冻日数将呈减少趋势, 我国南方地区的减少趋势大于北方地区; 暖期持续指数整体将呈增加趋势, 我国东北地区、西北地区中西部、华北地区和东南沿海地区增加显著; 冷期持续指数整体将呈减少趋势, 且东北地区、华北地区、西北地区及内蒙古、青藏高原大部地区的减少幅度将达到90%以上。
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关键词:
- 区域气候模式;
- 模式验证;
- IPCC SRES B2情景;
- 极端温度事件
Abstract: A regional climate model system, PRECIS, which is developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to verify the ability of the model to simulate the present (1961-1990) extreme temperature events and to project the future (2071-2100) extreme temperature events changes relative to the present in China under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated present results with observations that the localized fine-scale distribution characteristics of extreme temperature events in China can be simulated well by PRECIS. Under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario, the changes show there is an increase in hot days in most areas in China and the increase exceeds 500% for Northeast China, North China, Northwest China and Southwest China, while the changes also show that there is a decrease in frost days in most areas in China. The decreasing amplitude in northern China is smaller than that in southern China. There is an overall increase of the simulated future warm-spell days over most areas of China, an obvious increase occurs in Northeast China, North China, the middle and west of Northwest China and southeast coastal areas. There is a decrease of the simulated future cold-spell days over most areas of China. The decreasing amplitude is projected to reach or exceed 90% for Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau. -
图 1 1961-1990年我国气候基准时段年平均高温日数 (a, b) 和霜冻日数 (c, d) 分布观测值 (a, c) 与模拟值 (b, d) 的比较 (单位:d/ a)
Fig. 1 The observed (a, c) and simulated (b, d) spatial distribution of hot days (a, b) and frost days (c, d) during 1961-1990(unit : d/ a)
图 2 1961-1990年我国气候基准时段年平均暖期持续指数 (a, b) 和冷期持续指数 (c, d) 分布观测值 (a, c) 与模拟值 (b, d) 的比较 (单位: d/ a)
Fig. 2 The observed (a, c) and simulated (b, d) spatial distribution of warm-spell day s (a, b) and cold-spell days (c, d) during 1961-1990(unit : d/ a)
图 3 IPCC SRES B2情景下2071-2100年我国年平均极端温度事件的变化响应 (单位:%) (a) 高温日数, (b) 霜冻日数, (c) 暖期持续指数, (d) 冷期持续指数
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of the simulated increment under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario relative to the present in hot days (a), frost days (b), warm-spell days (c), cold-spell day s (d) (unit :%)
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