Abstract:
Surface shortwave radiation (SSR) plays an important role in surface energy balance.The ability to simulate the disposition and variation of SSR in CGCMs has direct effects on climate projection for the future.Especially the simulation on East Asia monsoon may be affected by the impacts of SSR on surface thermal condition.So it is necessary to validate the ability of CGCMs to simulate SSR in East Asia.By use of 18 CGCMs output provided by WCRPCMIP3 and ERA40 reanalysis data, the ability of GCMs to simulate East Asia SSR is validated through ensemble analysis.The simulation shows remarkable differences among models.The simulated SSR and clear-sky SSR are generally higher than ERA40, while the effect of cloud on SSR (SSCRF) is generally weak.Multi-model ensemble is simulated at about 8.7 W/m
2 and 3.4 W/m
2 for SSR and clear-sky SSR respectively, and about 5.3 W/m
2 lower for SSCRF as compared to ERA40.The standard deviation (STDEV) among different models is 9.6, 7.8 W/m
2 and 8 W/m
2 for SSR, clear-sky SSR and SSCRF, respectively.The phase characteristics are simulated well for seasonal variation of zonally-averaged SSR, although there is a great gap in magnitude.The simulation is obviously higher in the south of 30°N, especially in summer hemisphere, which is 30—50 W/m
2 higher, mainly due to combined effects of low simulation on SSCRF and overestimation of clear-sky SSR both of which have a positive deviation on the SSR simulation. In the north of 30°N, SSR is mainly low by simulation due to the higher simulation of SSCRF.The root mean square deviation (RMSD) in summer is higher than in winter.Multi-model ensemble of RMSD is 34.7, 17.1 W/m
2 and 29.1 W/m
2 for SSR, clear-sky SSR and SSCRF, respectively, which shows the great effect of cloud on SSR modeling.The STDEV of different model RMSD is 12.5, 11.3 W/m
2 and 10.2 W/m
2, respectively, showing little difference.The linear decrease in annual downscaling SSR can be simulated rather well by multi-model ensemble. However, for clear-sky downscaling SSR and downscaling SSCRF, the simulation is not good, in other words, the decrease trend of clear-sky downscaling SSR is overestimated by models, while the adverse trend of downscaling SSCRF is given as compared to ERA40.