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多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响

徐广阔 孙建华 雷霆 赵思雄

徐广阔, 孙建华, 雷霆, 等. 多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(1): 36-46.
引用本文: 徐广阔, 孙建华, 雷霆, 等. 多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(1): 36-46.
Xu Guangkuo, Sun Jianhua, Lei Ting, et al. Impacts of Chinese Doppler radar on the severe heavy rainfall forecast during Meiyu season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 36-46.
Citation: Xu Guangkuo, Sun Jianhua, Lei Ting, et al. Impacts of Chinese Doppler radar on the severe heavy rainfall forecast during Meiyu season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 36-46.

多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响

资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 40405008

国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 2004CB418301

国家自然科学基金项目 40620120437

Impacts of Chinese Doppler Radar on the Severe Heavy Rainfall Forecast During Meiyu Season

  • 摘要: 利用我国CINRAD/SA多普勒天气雷达资料与ARPS模式 (Advanced Regional Prediction System) 的资料分析系统ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System), 对初始场进行调整, 并应用于WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) 模式, 对2003年梅雨期淮河流域两次典型致洪暴雨过程进行模拟试验。对模拟结果的对比分析和检验结果表明:引入雷达资料后, 在雷达观测区的整层风场和水汽场都随之调整, 雷达径向风和反射率因子资料对初始场调整有不同影响, 径向风资料侧重于对风场的调整, 而反射率因子资料侧重于对温、湿量场的调整, 使降雨落区和强度预报都有所提高; 在ADAS系统中, 雷达径向风和反射率因子资料对初始场调整有不同影响, 径向风资料侧重于对风场的调整, 而反射率因子资料侧重于对温、湿量场的调整, 两个个例的试验表明, 加入雷达径向风资料的模拟试验能够得到较好评分, 加入雷达反射率因子资料或同时加入这两种雷达资料也能够在一定程度上提高模拟的准确性。
  • 图  1  2003年6月29日00:00—30日00:00 24h累积降水量模拟结果检验

    (a) ETS评分, (b) BS评分, (c) HSS评分

    Fig. 1  The verification of simulated precipitation during 00:00 29 Jun to 00:00 30Jun, 2003

    (a) ETS, (b) BS, (c) HSS

    图  2  2008年7月4日12:00—18:00降水量模拟结果 (实线) 与实况 (阴影) (单位:mm)

    (a) 试验CNTL, (b) 试验RADAR-V, (c) 试验RADAR-R, (d) 试验RADAR-RV

    Fig. 2  The simulated precipitation (solid line) and observation (shaded) during 12:00 to 18:00 on Jul4, 2003(unit:mm)

    (a) Exp CNTL, (b) Exp RADAR-V, (c) Exp RADAR-R, (d) Exp RADAR-RV

    图  3  2003年7月4日12:00—5日12:00 24h累积降水量模拟结果检验

    (a) ETS评分, (b) BS评分, (c) HSS评分

    Fig. 3  The verification of simulated precipitation during 12:00 4 Jul to 12:00 5Jul, 2003

    (a) ETS, (b) BS, (c) HSS

    图  4  个例一中加入雷达资料后初始场云水、雨水差异沿31.9°N的纬向-高度剖面图 (单位:g/kg)

    Fig. 4  The cross-section along 31.9°N of the difference of cloud water, rain water between experiments which radar data is used and unused of Case one (unit:g/kg)

    图  5  个例二试验RADAR-V与试验CNTL的初始风场之差沿31.9°N的纬向-高度剖面图 (单位:m/s)

    Fig. 5  The difference of initial wind between Exp RADAR-V and Exp CNTL along 31.9°N of Case two (unit:m/s)

    图  6  个例二不同高度上试验RADAR-V与试验CNTL初始风场差异 (单位:m/s)

    (a) 750m, (b) 3750m, (c) 5750m, (d) 9750m

    Fig. 6  The difference of initial wind between Exp RADAR-V and Exp CNTL at different height of Case two (unit:m/s)

    (a) 750m, (b) 3750m, (c) 5750m, (d) 9750m

    图  7  2003年7月4日850hPa高度上试验RADAR-V与试验CNTL的环流差异 (矢量, 单位:m/s) 与试验RADAR-V逐小时降水量模拟 (阴影, 单位:mm)

    Fig. 7  The difference of circulation at 850 hPa between Exp RADAR-V and Exp CNTL (vectors, unit:m/s) and hourly rainfall simulated by Exp RADAR-V (shaded, unit:mm) on 4 Jul 2003 of Case two

    表  1  试验设计

    Table  1  The configuration of experiments

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2008-01-24
  • 修回日期:  2008-08-15
  • 刊出日期:  2009-02-28

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