Abstract:
The earth's climate is now experiencing significant change characterized by global warming. Profoundinfluence has been or will be brought by the global warming to the world. Exploring and assessing climatechange and its impacts are one of the hot issues in the fields of climate change.The electric power consumption of Guangzhou City which lies in the low latitude belt is sensitive to climate change. The trend ofthe electric power consumption changes with different paces and in different forms in Guangzhou City because of the global climate warming. In order to rationalize the allocation of the electric power resource andsave the electric power, it is necessary to study the responses of the electric power consumption to the climate warming. A research method is introduced which is used to study climate change impact on agriculture yield and energy sources, the dynamic assessment model for the influence intensity of the climaticchange in the electric power consumption and the model of cooling degree-day are established respectively.The responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou City are analyzed, andthe trend of the electric power consumption in Guangzhou City is forecasted. Firstly, the correlation between the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City and weather factors is studied, it is found thatthe main weather factors which affect the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City are the temperature, humidity and wind speed, but the temperature is the key factor. Secondly, the stability of climatechange is a very important factor for the electric power consumption besides weather factors. A dynamicassessment model including mean influence intensity and deviation are established. Considering all the climate factors and the stability of climate change, in the late fifty years, influence intensity of the climaticchange to electric power consumption has been increasing steadily, the probability of positive influence intensity has an ascending trend, rising at the speed of 10% every ten years, especially significant in recenttwenty years. Thirdly, through the analysis of cooling degree-day of Guangzhou City, it is found that themain cooling time is from May to October. The intensity of cooling degree-day is influenced by the increaseof the temperature greatly, reaching up to 46.6%/ ℃. At the same time, by analyzing the variability of thelength of cooling period, it shows that the length of cooling period has a gradual increasing trend in Guangzhou City. Therefore, the increase of cooling degree-day caused by temperature increasing has great effectson the electric power consumption.Finally, in the future scenery of climate warming, when the averagemaximum temperature increases 1 ℃ in summer, the unit industrial production value electric power consumption of the whole year will increase 2.02%. When the average temperature from May to October increases 1 ℃, the percentage of electric power consumed by residents will increase 1.25%. So in Guangzhou City, the pressure of the electric power consumption will be continuously increasing in the future because of the climate warming.