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我国近20年太阳辐射时空分布状况模式评估
Evaluating the Solar Radiation Resources of China in Recent 20 Years by Meteorological Model
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摘要: 利用NCAR/PSU联合研发的第5代中尺度气象模式（MM5），结合最优插值方法，模拟获得高时空分辨率的我国太阳辐射分布特征。MM5模式模拟中采用敏感性分析方法挑选参数化方案，结合1975—1997年辐射日平均值资料验证模拟效果，采用最优插值方法优化辐射的模拟效果，并导入GIS平台进行统计分析。分析表明：最优插值后辐射模拟平均标准绝对误差由原来的24.4%下降到8.5%，平均标准偏差由20.6%下降到3.5%。模拟获得的全国平均年太阳辐射总量为5648.6 MJ·m-2，空间分布上，呈现以内蒙中西部—宁夏—甘肃西北部—四川西部—云南西北部为分界线的西高东低特征，分界线以西太阳辐射在6000 MJ·m-2以上，东部以华北太阳辐射为最高；1975—1997年年太阳辐射总量呈现上升—下降—上升的变化趋势，1978年太阳辐射最高，1989年最低。此外，基于Arc GIS 8.3统计获得各省份平均年太阳辐射总量，对各省份太阳辐射丰富程度进行等级划分，统计结果表明:西藏、青海、新疆是太阳辐射最丰富的省份，其中，西藏平均年太阳辐射总量在6900 MJ·m-2以上。Abstract: High resolution spatial and temporal distribution of the solar radiation resources in China in the past decades is simulated using the fifth generation Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), and its parameterization schemes are determined according to the numerical sensitive experiments results. The daily radiation observation data from 1975 to 1997 with good quality control is used to validate and evaluate the model performance, and to improve the simulation of the solar radiation with the optimal interpolation method, after which the mean absolute normalized gross error (MANGE) has decreased from 24.4% to 8.5% and the normalized mean bias (MB) has decreased from 20.6% to 3.5%.The simulated spatial distribution of the solar radiation shows that the solar radiation of the whole country is 5648.6 MJ/m2 per year on averge. The solar radiation is higher in western regions than in east, divided by the line from the middle western of the Inner Mongolia, to Ningxia, northwestern Gansu, western Sichuan and northwestern Yunnan provinces. To the west of this line, the radiation is more than 6000 MJ/m2 and to the east, the solar radiation in North China is highest. The inter annual variability tendency of the radiation from 1975 to 1997 is increase—decrease—increase, with the highest annual radiation in 1978 and the lowest in 1989. The solar radiation in each province is calculated from the simulated radiation after the optimal interpolation with the Geographical Information System (GIS) tools (based on ArcGIS 8.3 desktop) and classified according to their solar radiation resources. Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang provinces have the most solar radiation resources in China, and the averaged solar radiation in Tibet is more than 6900 MJ/m2 per year.
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图 2 1975—1997年最优插值前后月辐射总量模拟效果对比
(a) 最优插值前, (b) 最优插值后
Fig. 2 The scatter diagram of simulated solar radiation before and after optimal interpolation from 1975 to 1997
(a) before optimal interpolation, (b) after optimal interpolation
图 3 1975—1997年我国平均年太阳辐射总量分布
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of the annual solar radiation in China averaged from 1975 to 1997
图 4 1975—1997年西藏自治区平均年太阳辐射总量分布
Fig. 4 The spatial distribution of the annual solar radiation in Tibet averaged from 1975 to 1997
图 5 1975—1997年那曲地区平均年太阳辐射总量分布
Fig. 5 The spatial distribution of the annual solar radiation in Nagquaver aged from 1975 to 1997
图 6 各省年太阳辐射总量 (标识值为各省年太阳辐射总量; 单位:MJ·m-2; 黄色表示太阳能丰富省区; 绿色表示太阳能中等省区; 紫色表示太阳能一般省区)
Fig. 6 The annual averaged solar radiation inprovinces (marker is the solar radiation inprovinces, unit:MJ·m-2; the yellow denotes the solar energy-rich provinces; the green denotes solar energy-middle provinces; the purple denotes the other solar energy-general provinces)
图 7 1975—1997年全国平均年太阳辐射年总量变化曲线
Fig. 7 The temporal series of the annual solar radiation in China averaged from 1975 to 1997
表 1 最优插值前后月辐射总量模拟值与实况之间的偏差及误差变化
Table 1 The deviation and error between simulated monthly solar radiation and the obsreved one before and after the optimal interpolation
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