Abstract: The numerical forecast result for tropical cyclone paths from 2006 to 2009 is fully checked from mean distance error, distance error distribution, system error of the model, mean full-shift velocity error and the mode forecast error to circumstance fields by using T213L31 model of China National Meteorological Center. The analysis shows that the model forecast distance errors of 24, 48, 72, 96 hours forecasts are 135.8, 250.1, 376.3, 515.9 and 695.1 km. For the TC path of different alignment, the forecast for west path type is the best, followed by excrescent path and path of going up north. The biggest forecast error path is the path going up northeast, with the path east to change direction in second. Classifying the tropical cyclone strength indicates that the forecast error to tropical cyclone decreases as the strength increases, and the forecast is most efficient when the strength attains super typhoon. The forecast error to strong tropical storm is significant when forecast time increases, and the error to the tropical storm is also notable. The T213 produces a system deviation of northwest to west path among all average forecast samples. For northwest line and path to west cyclones the deviation is northeast to east and northeast to north. For cyclones changing direction to the northwest, middle, west and northeast, the deviation is northwest path, northwest to west and west system deviation respectively. But for the east changing direction and path going up north, the deviation is southwest to west and southwest respectively. Calculating the mean moving velocity, it's found that forecast for northeast path cyclones generates great error on initial velocity, reching up to 1.11 m/s, which leads to forecast error of distance. For the northwest, west, going up north type path cyclones the error of velocity is smaller, but for all changing direction type ones the velocity deviation is bigger. From the cases of T213 model which forecasts TC tracks with larger error in 2009 (such as No.0904, No.0906, No.0907), by examining the model prediction error of the background field, it shows that the model overestimates westerly trough in middle and higher latitude regions. For forecasts of two close cyclones, the Fujiwhara Effect can happen easily, which will cause forecast deviation for TC tracks.