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Statistical Correction for Dynamical Prediction of 500 hPa Height Field in Mid-high Latitudes
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摘要: 利用DEMETER多模式集合研究计划中Météo France模式的预报资料集，在分析其对冬季北半球中高纬度地区 (20°~90°N)500 hPa高度场预报效果的基础上，针对模式预测较差的模态分别运用最优子集回归修正方案和回归-相似相结合的修正方案对其进行订正。结果表明：数值模式对观测模态的预测能力并非随模态数的增加而递减，方差贡献较小的模态的预报效果可能好于方差贡献较大的模态；基于最优子集的回归订正方法未能改进原模式预报技巧；在最优子集回归基础上再经相似订正的方法 (DAP-OSR) 能够改进预测效果，独立试报的距平相关系数平均每年提高0.1。
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关键词:
- 季节预测;
- 中高纬度地区;
- 500 hPa高度场;
- 动力预测;
- 统计订正
Abstract: In terms of the Météo France model data of DEMETER project, the performance of ensemble forecast system at 500 hPa height field of winter in mid-high latitudes (20°—90°N) is studied, then both optimum subset regression (OSR) and dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) method are used to improve the model prediction. First, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to investigate the observed 500 hPa height field of 1958—1991. The time coefficients of different modes for the numerical model are calculated by projecting the model data onto the observed EOF basement. Then the performance of the model modes based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of observations is examined by calculating the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between the time coefficients of the leading 10 model and observed EOF modes. Next, the optimum subset regression (OSR) experiential model is established to advance the model prediction on the modes, which are predicted by the numerical modes with very low skill (i.e., low skill modes). Finally, the mean time coefficients of 5 observed similarity years on each low skill mode are substituted for those of the model prediction, where the similarity year is defined as its time coefficient estimated by OSR has minor difference from that of the prediction year. In this way, the analogue method is employed to correct the model prediction on OSR basis, namely, OSR-based analogue method. The results suggest that the prediction ability of the mode accounting for less variance may be higher than the mode with more variance, such as the 2nd and 3rd EOF modes have low skill but with large variance contribution to total variance of the model field. OSR fails in advancing the model prediction. The DAP method based on OSR (DAP-OSR) shows a possibility of improving the prediction techniques with ACC increasing 0.1 by correcting the bad modes of model while OSR fails.Correcting the dynamic prediction by combing the advantages of the numerical models and statistic methods, the nonlinear analogue method based on linear OSR shows a possibility of improving the prediction techniques by correcting the EOF modes, which are predicted by the numerical modes with very low skills. However, since the numerical model has a poor capability in representing the 2nd and 3rd EOF modes of the observation which account for large percent of total variance, and the forecast ability can not be improved effectively because the model prediction information is not enough or incorrect. Therefore, it is necessary to make further analysis on the samples of the modes, predicted with low skill by the numerical model, and the corresponding external forcing. The external forcing might be more effective to improve the correction for such modes with low skill. -
图 2 1958—1991年基于最优子集回归订正的交叉检验距平相关系数与模态数关系
Fig. 2 Variation of anomaly correlation coefficients with the numbers of EOF modes during OSR cross-validating experiment from 1958 to 1991
图 4 1958—1991年交叉检验中的距平相关系数对比
Fig. 4 The anomaly correlation coeffients of cross-validating from 1958 to 1991
图 5 1958—1991年交叉检验中相似订正后和订正前模式预测结果与实况距平相关系数之差
Fig. 5 Differences of anomaly correlation coefficient between the observed and those by DAP-OSR cross-validating and the raw model from 1958 to 1991
图 6 1992—2001年独立预报中距平相关系数对比
Fig. 6 Anomaly correlation coefficents of independent prediction from 1992 to 2001
图 7 1992—2001年独立预报中相似订正后和订正前模式预测结果与实况的距平相关系数之差
Fig. 7 The advance of anomaly correlation coefficents by analogue correction scheme of independent prediction from 1992 to 2001
图 8 hPa高度场观测场与相似订正前模式预报结果 (a) 及DAP-OSR预报结果 (b) 相关分布 (阴影区域相关系数通过0.05水平的显著性检验)
Fig. 8 The correlation coefficients of observations to predicted 500 hPa height fields by the raw model (a) and DAP-OSR (b) from 1958 to 1991(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
表 1 冬季500 hPa高度场模式预测与观测场EOF前10个模态的相关系数
Table 1 Correlation coefficients between the leading 10 EOF modes of the model predictions and observations
模态 时间相关系数 累积方差贡献率/% 1 0.440 35 2 0.075 49 3 0.082 60 4 0.510 69 5 0.120 75 6 -0.333 80 7 0.087 83 8 0.290 86 9 -0.211 89 10 0.120 91 
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