留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变

李剑锋 张强 陈晓宏 白云岗

李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
引用本文: 李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
Citation: Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变

资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 41071020

水利部水专项 201001066

新疆自治区科技攻关项目 200931105

详细信息
    通信作者:

    李剑锋, E-mail: jianfengli.sysu@gmail.com

SPI-based Drought Variations in Xinjiang, China

  • 摘要: 运用标准降水指标 (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) 对新疆地区53个雨量站1957—2009年日降水量资料进行全面分析,研究了不同干旱等级发生概率的空间分布变化规律。同时,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了各月份标准降水指标值、干旱强度和干旱历时的变化趋势,探讨了新疆地区干旱时空演变特征。结果表明:北疆易发生中等及以上干旱,而南疆易发生轻度干旱。总的来说,北疆干旱强度有下降的趋势,干旱历时趋于缩短,南疆南部干旱强度和干旱历时有轻微上升,东疆中部干旱情况显著恶化。具体来说,北疆冬季干旱程度有减弱趋势,而对于农业生产较重要的春、夏、秋季,西部干旱加剧;南疆夏季干旱有减弱趋势;东疆中部四季干旱程度有轻微加剧趋势。
  • 图  1  新疆地区雨量站分布

    Fig. 1  Location of precipition stations in Xinjiang

    图  2  1980—2009年乌鲁木齐区域标准降水指标值与历史干旱受灾面积变化

    Fig. 2  The comparison of SPI and historic drought damage area in Urumqi region during 1980—2009

    图  3  干旱发生概率空间分布

    (a) 轻度干旱, (b) 中度干旱, (c) 重度干旱, (d) 极端干旱

    Fig. 3  Spatial distribution of frequencies for drought categories

    (a) mild drought, (b) moderate drought, (c) severe drought, (d) extreme drought

    图  4  逐月标准降水指标的M-K法统计量Z分布

    Fig. 4  Monthly spatial distribution of SPI trends

    图  5  新疆干旱强度

    (a) 及干旱历时 (b) M-K法统计量Z分布

    Fig. 5  Spatial distirbutions of trends of drought serverity (a) and drought duration (b)

    表  1  标准降水指标干旱等级

    Table  1  SPI categories

    标准降水指标 干旱等级 发生概率
    (-1.0, 0] 轻度干旱 0.341
    (-1.5, -1.0] 中度干旱 0.092
    (-2.0, -1.5] 重度干旱 0.044
    (-∞, -2.0] 极端干旱 0.023
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] Zhang Q, Xu C Y, Chen Y D, et al. Spatial assessment of hydrologic alteration across the Pearl River Delta, China, and possible underlying causes. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23: 1565-1574. doi:  10.1002/hyp.v23:11
    [2] Xu C Y, Singh V P. Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour Manage, 2004, 18: 591-612. doi:  10.1007/s11269-004-9130-0
    [3] Wilhite D A. Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions//Drought: A Global Assesment. New York: Routledge, 2000.
    [4] Richard R H J. A Review of Twentieth Century Drought Indices Used in the United States. American Meteorological Society, 2002: 1149-1165. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477%282002%29083<1149%3AAROTDI>2.3.CO%3B2
    [5] McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Amer Meteor Soc, 1993: 179-184. http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/relationshipofdroughtfrequency.pdf
    [6] Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J M, et al. Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol, 2004, 79: 81-91. doi:  10.1007/s00704-004-0053-8
    [7] Zhang Q, Xu C Y, Zhang Z X. Observed changes of drought/wetness episodes in the Pearl River Basin, China, using the standardized precipitation index and aridity index. Theor Appl Climatol, 2009, 98: 89-99. doi:  10.1007/s00704-008-0095-4
    [8] Zhai L X, Feng Q. Spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in Gansu Province, Northwest China. Nat Hazards, 2009, 49: 1-24. doi:  10.1007/s11069-008-9274-y
    [9] 袁文平, 周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析.植物生态学报, 2004, 28(4): 523-529. doi:  10.17521/cjpe.2004.0071
    [10] Piccarreta M, Capolongo D, Boenzi F. Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in Basilicata from 1923 to 2000 within a southern Italy context. Int J Climatol, 2004, 24: 907-922. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
    [11] Guttman N B. Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998, 34(1): 113-121. doi:  10.1111/jawr.1998.34.issue-1
    [12] Svoboda M, Lecomte D, Hayes M, et al. The Drought Monitor. Amer Meteor Soc, 2002, 83: 1181-1190. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1181:TDM>2.3.CO;2
    [13] Buhe A, Tsuchiya K, Kaneko M, et al. Land cover of oases and forest in XinJiang, China retrieved from ASTER data. Advances in Space Research, 2007, 39(1): 39-45. doi:  10.1016/j.asr.2006.02.056
    [14] 姜逢清, 朱诚, 穆桂金, 等.当代新疆洪旱灾害扩大化:人类活动的影响分析.地理学报, 2002, 57(1): 57-66. doi:  10.11821/xb200201007
    [15] 李骥, 张志华, 吴祥定.利用树木年轮资料重建新疆东天山300多年来干旱日数的变化.应用气象学报, 1996, 7(1): 53-60. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19960107&flag=1
    [16] 姜逢清, 朱诚, 胡汝骥.新疆1950—1997年洪旱灾害的统计与分形特征分析.自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(4): 96-100. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH200204016.htm
    [17] 邹旭恺, 张强.近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6): 679-687. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20080607
    [18] 庄晓翠, 杨森, 赵正波, 等.干旱指标及其在新疆阿勒泰地区干旱监测分析中的应用.灾害学, 2010, 25(3): 81-85. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU201003019.htm
    [19] 翟盘茂, 邹旭恺. 1951—2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响.气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(1): 16-18. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200501006.htm
    [20] 杨莲梅, 史玉光, 汤浩.新疆北部冬季降水异常成因.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(4): 491-499. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20100413
    [21] 杨舵, 史玉光.新疆春季降水与北大西洋海温关系的事实分析.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(4): 478-484. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20020463&flag=1
    [22] 赵成义, 施枫芝, 盛钰, 等.近50a来新疆降水随海拔变化的区域分布特征.冰川冻土, 2011, 33(6): 1203-1213. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201106001.htm
    [23] Giddings L, Soto M, Butherford B M, et al. Standardized precipitation index zones for Mexico. Atmosfeera, 2005, 8: 33-56. http://www.oalib.com/paper/922714
    [24] Wu H, Hayes M J, Hu Q. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, the China-Z index and the statistical z-score. International Journal of Climatology, 2001, 21:745-758. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
    [25] Shiau J T, Modarres R. Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran. Meteorological Application, 2009, 16: 481-489. doi:  10.1002/met.v16:4
    [26] Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 1934, 13: 245-259. https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/1945/07/01/nonparametric-tests-against-trend
    [27] Kendall M G. Rank Correlation Methods. Lodon: Charless Griffin, 1975.
    [28] Mitchell J M, Dzerdzeevskii B, Flohn H, et al. Climate Change. WMO Tech Note No.79, Geneva:WMO, 1996: 1-79.
    [29] Storch H. Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 1995:11-26.
    [30] Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, et al. Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol, 2009, 374: 171-183. doi:  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.012
    [31] Storch H, Navarra A. Analysis of Climate Variability—Applications of Statistical Techniques. New York: Springer Verlag, 1995:1-334.
    [32] Mishra A K, Singh V P. A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol, 2010, 391: 202-216. doi:  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
    [33] Livada I, Assimakopoulos V D. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Greece using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Theore Appl Climatol, 2007, 89: 143-153. doi:  10.1007/s00704-005-0227-z
    [34] Komuscu A U. Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Networ News, 1999, 11(1): 7-13. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context=droughtnetnews&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fcn.bing.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DUsing%2Bthe%2BSPI%2Bto%2BAnalyze%2BSpatial%2Band%2BTemporal%2BPatterns%2Bof%2BDrought%2Bin%2BTurkey%26FORM%3DHDRSC1#search=%22Using%20SPI%20Analyze%20Spatial%20Temporal%20Patterns%20Drought%20Turkey%22
    [35] Zhang Q, Xu C Y, Chen X H, et al. Statistical behaviors of precipitation regimes in China and their links with atmospheric circulation 1960—2005. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, doi:  10.1002/joc.2193.
    [36] 薛燕, 韩萍, 冯国华.半个世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势.干旱区研究, 2003, 20(2): 127-130. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GHQJ200302009.htm
    [37] 李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等.新疆极端降水概率分布特征的时空演变规律.灾害学, 2011, 26(2): 11-17. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU201102004.htm
    [38] 史玉光, 孙照渤, 杨青.新疆区域面雨量分布特征及其变化规律.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(3): 326-332. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20080308
    [39] 徐羹慧.全球性气候变暖给新疆经济建设和可持续发展带来什么?新疆气象, 1997, 20(5): 1-3. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJQX199705000.htm
  • 加载中
图(5) / 表 (1)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  7009
  • HTML全文浏览量:  3569
  • PDF下载量:  6212
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-07-26
  • 修回日期:  2012-03-06
  • 刊出日期:  2012-06-30

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回