郑州地区冬小麦产量构成要素的回归模型

Regression Models of Winter Wheat Yield Components in Zhengzhou Area

  • 摘要: 利用郑州农业气象试验站1980—2006年冬小麦发育期、千粒重和穗粒数以及逐日气象资料,分析了影响千粒重和穗粒数的显著时段和关键因子,建立了千粒重和穗粒数的预测模型。结果表明:与千粒重相关显著的时段、关键因子是抽穗后15~19 d和29~33 d的温度以及9~13 d的日照;有利于获得较高千粒重的适宜温度范围为18.8~22.8℃,日平均气温上限为29.5℃;与穗粒数相关显著的时段、关键因子是返青后21~25 d的温度。相关显著时段的气候要素对千粒重和穗粒数具有较强的指示作用,可以较好地预测千粒重和穗粒数,为进行产量预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Winter wheat yield prediction plays an important role in ordinary meteorological service and its accuracy is associated with forecasting techniques. It's one of main techniques analyzing relationship of yield components to meteorological elements and then establishing regression model about yield components.Winter wheat yield in Zhengzhou Area is studied based on the date of winter wheat growth stage, 1000-grain weight, spike grain number and the daily meteorological data at Zhengzhou Agro-meteorological Experimental Station from 1980 to 2006. By calculating the impact indexes of light, temperature and precipitation, the relationship between these indexes and 1000-grain weight, spike grain number are analyzed, and key factors are selected by analyzing the change of correlation coefficient to establish the prediction model of 1000-grain weight and spike grain number. The result indicates that 1000-grain weight shows a positive relationship and a negative relationship with the average temperature from the 15th day to 19th day and from the 29th day to 33rd day during the heading stage, respectively. At the same time, the average sunlight hour from the 9th day to 13th day shows a negative effect. To gain a high 1000-grain weight, the mean temperature is supposed to be between 18.8℃ and 22.8℃, and the highest temperature doesn't exceed 29.5℃. The average temperature from the 21st day to 25th day during the reviving stage shows a positive effect obviously for spike grain number. By analyzing the relationship between yield components and climatic elements respectively, the estimate of 1000-grain weight and spike grain number are possible in advance.

     

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