设为首页
加入收藏
Recent Progress on the Objective and Quantifiable Forecast of Summer Precipitation Based on Dynamical-statistical Method
-
摘要: 汛期降水预测是短期气候预测的重要内容之一，也是难点之一。近20年来，动力-统计相结合的预测方法在解决这一复杂的科学难题方面取得了一定进展。该文系统地介绍了近年来国家级气候预测业务中关于动力-统计客观定量化预测的原理、最优因子订正和异常因子订正两类预测方案，及动力-统计集成的中国季节降水预测系统 (FODAS1.0)。2009—2012年的汛期降水预测中，动力-统计客观定量化预测方法4年平均PS评分为73，距平相关系数为0.16，体现了较高的预报技巧。但该方法仍存在不足，需通过加强气候因子与降水之间关系的诊断分析、完善短期气候模式的物理过程、改进参数化方案及研发有针对性的区域气候模式等手段，进一步提高模式本身的预报技巧，使动力-统计预测方法在汛期降水预测中发挥更大作用。Abstract: Short-term climatic prediction, which mainly aims at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, is very important for the public and government decision making. The trend of summer flood and drought distribution is one of the most important contents in operational forecast. Generally, there are two types of forecasting methods, including statistical method and dynamical method, which both have advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, the general consensus is to let them learn from each other, merging and developing. During recent 50 years, the Dynamical-Statistical Integration Forecasting Method (DSIFM) has made great progresses in dealing with the complex scientific issue of summer precipitation forecasting in China and abroad.The research results in early period and the development about DSIFM are briefly reviewed, as well as the two forms of dynamical-statistical integration forecasting method. And then, the principle, processes and programs of Dynamical-Statistical Objective Quantitative Forecasting (DSOQF) in recent operational forecast are systematically introduced. Based on the Coupled Global Circulation Model (CGCM) of National Climate Center and two types of prediction scheme of DSOQF, a dynamical-statistical integrated forecasting system for seasonal precipitation (FODAS1.0) is set up, which fully assimilates existing research and profession achievements, especially forecaster diagnostic techniques and forecasting experience from national, regional and provincial climate centers. Suitable regional climate characteristics prediction scheme is also developed based on the theory and methods of DSOQF. By now, FODAS1.0 achieves quasi-operational trial in National Climate Center, 8 regional climate centers and Guangxi, Shandong and other provincial climate centers.Experimental predictions are carried out for the summer rainfall in China from 2009 to 2012 with the method of DSOQF. The predictive score (PS) from 2009 to 2012 are 79, 72, 70 and 70, respectively. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) from 2009 to 2012 are 0.38, 0.10, 0.12 and 0.03. For abnormal years such as 2010 and 2011, diagnostic analysis is performed. Overall, the forecast results are ideal, but it still needs further improving.The problems in DSIFM and the solutions are also discussed. The forecasting skills can be improved by strengthening diagnostic analysis of the relationship between precipitation and its main factors, improving the physics processes and parameterization scheme of short-term climate models, and developing the targeted regional climate models. The DSIFM will be more useful in the future.
-
图 1 全国汛期降水动力-统计客观定量化预测流程
Fig. 1 The processes of Dynamical-Statistical Objective and Quantifiable Forecasting (DSOQF) of summer rainfall in China
-
[1] 黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系.大气科学, 2006, 30(5):730-742. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200605001.htm [2] 吴国雄, 李建平, 周天军, 等.影响我国短期气候异常的关键区:亚印太交汇区.地球科学进展, 2006, 21(11):1109-1118. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2006.11.002 [3] 丑纪范, 徐明.短期气候数值预测的进展和前景.科学通报, 2001, 46(1):890-894. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200111001.htm [4] Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W.Multifield analog prediction of short-term climate fluctuations using a climate state vector.J Atmos Sci, 1978, 35(10):1771-1787. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<1771:MAPOST>2.0.CO;2 [5] Chao J P, Guo Y F, Xin R N.A theory and method of long-range numerical weather forecasts.J Meteor Soc Japan, 1982, 60:282-291. doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.60.1_282 [6] Van H M.Searching for analogues, how long must we wait?Tellus, 1994, 46A:314-324. http://www.leg.ufpr.br/~eder/Artigos/Wather/Dool_1994.pdf [7] 顾震潮.作为初值问题的天气形势预报与地面天气历史演变作预报的等值性.气象学报, 1958, 29(2):93-98. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1958.011 [8] 顾震潮.天气数值预报中过去资料的使用问题.气象学报, 1958, 29(3):176-184. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1958.019 [9] 丑纪范.天气数值预报中使用过去资料的问题.中国科学, 1974, 17(6):635-644. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB195803002.htm [10] 丑纪范.为什么要动力-统计相结合?——兼论如何结合.高原气象, 1986, 5(4):367-372. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX198604008.htm [11] 丑纪范.短期气候预测的现状、问题与出路 (一).新疆气象, 2003, 26(1):1-4. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJQX200301000.htm [12] 丑纪范, 任宏利.数值天气预报——另类途径的必要性和可行性.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(2):240-244. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060216 [13] 郑庆林, 杜行远.使用多时刻观测资料的数值天气预报新模式.中国科学, 1973, 16(2):289-297. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JAXK197303004.htm [14] 邱崇践, 丑纪范.改进数值天气预报的一个新途径.中国科学:B辑, 1987, 17(8):903-910. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK198708012.htm [15] 邱崇践, 丑纪范.预报模式识别的扰动方法.大气科学, 1988, 12(3):225-232. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198803000.htm [16] 邱崇践, 丑纪范.预报模式的参数优化方法.中国科学:B辑, 1990, 20(2):218-224. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199002016.htm [17] 邱崇践, 丑纪范.天气预报的相似-动力方法.大气科学, 1989, 57(2):131-142. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGQX201307001046.htm [18] 黄建平, 王绍武.相似-动力模式的季节预报试验.中国科学:B辑, 1991, 35(2):216-224. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199102013.htm [19] Huang Jianping, Yi Yuhong, Chou Jifan.An analogue-dynamical long-range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 1993, 119:547-565. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X [20] 任宏利, 丑纪范.统计-动力相结合的相似误差订正法.气象学报, 2005, 63(6):988-993. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2005.094 [21] 任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 等.基于多个参考态更新的动力相似预报方法及应用.物理学报, 2006, 55(8):4388-4396. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.4388 [22] 任宏利, 丑纪范.动力相似预报的策略和方法研究.中国科学:D辑, 2007, 37(8):1101-1109. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10730-2006088472.htm [23] 任宏利, 封国林, 丑纪范.论动力相似预报的物理基础问题.地球科学进展, 2007, 22(10):1027-1035. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2007.10.006 [24] 郑志海, 封国林, 丑纪范, 等.数值预报中自由度的压缩及误差相似性规律.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(2):139-148. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100202 [25] 郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平.基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值试验.物理学报, 2009, 58(10):7359-7367. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2009.10.114 [26] 王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 等.长江中下游汛期降水优化多因子组合客观定量化预测研究.大气科学, 2011, 35(2):287-297. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201102009.htm [27] 王启光, 封国林, 支蓉, 等.长江中下游汛期降水数值预报业务模式误差场预报研究.气象学报, 2012, 70(4):789-796. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2012.064 [28] Xiong Kaiguo, Feng Guolin, Huang Jianping, et al.Analogue-dynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China based on changeable configuration of optimal multi-predictor.Acta Meteor Sinica, 2011, 25(3):316-326. doi: 10.1007/s13351-011-0307-1 [29] 熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 等.汛期降水相似动力预报——模式误差主分量相似预报方法.物理学报, 2012, 61(14):149204, doi: 10.7498/aps.61.149204. [30] 杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 等.动态最优多因子组合的华北汛期降水模式误差估计及预报, 物理学报, 2011, 60(2):029204. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-WLXB201102125.htm [31] 杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 等.华北汛期降水多因子相似订正方案与预报试验.大气科学, 2012, 36(1):11-22. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201201002.htm [32] 李维京, 张培群, 李清泉, 等.动力气候模式预测系统业务化及其应用.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(增刊):1-11. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2005S1000.htm [33] 张邦林, 丑纪范.经验正交函数在数值气候模拟中的应用.中国科学:B辑, 1991, 21(4):442-448. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199104013.htm [34] 张培群, 丑纪范.改进月延伸预报的一种方法.高原气象, 1997, 16(4):376-388. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX704.005.htm [35] 曹鸿兴.大气运动的自记忆方程.中国科学:B辑, 1993, 23(1):104-112. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JBXK199301014.htm [36] 曹鸿兴.大气自忆谱模式及其应用.大气科学, 1998, 22(1):119-126. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK801.012.htm [37] 曹鸿兴, 谷湘潜.自忆谱模式对中期环流预报的改进.自然科学进展, 2001, 11(3):309-313. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJZ200103014.htm [38] 封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏凤英, 等.长江三角洲汛期预报模式的研究及其初步应用.气象学报, 2001, 59(2):206-212. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2001.021 [39] Feng G L, Cao H X, Dong W J, et al.A new differential scheme with multi-levels.Chin Phys, 10:1004-1010. doi: 10.1088/1009-1963/10/11/303 [40] 范新岗, 丑纪范.提为反问题的数值预报方法与实验Ⅰ:三类反问题及数值解法.大气科学, 1999, 23(5):543-550. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199905003.htm [41] 龚建东, 丑纪范.论过去资料在数值天气预报中使用的理论和方法.高原气象, 1999, 18(3):392-399. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX199903013.htm [42] Klein W H, Lewis B M, Enger I.Objective preciction of five-day mean temperatures during winter.J Meteorology, 1959, 16:672-682. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1959)016<0672:OPOFDM>2.0.CO;2 [43] Klein W H.Computer prediction of precipitation probability in the United States.J Appl Met, 1971, 10:903-915. doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1971)010<0903:CPOPPI>2.0.CO;2 [44] Feddersen H, Uffe A.A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions.Tellus, 2005, 57A:398-408. [45] 李维京, 陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究.气象学报, 1999, 57(3):338-345. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.032 [46] 陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 等.降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(6):648-655. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030682&flag=1 [47] 魏凤英, 黄嘉佑.我国东部夏季降水量统计降尺度的可预测性研究.热带气象学报, 2010, 26(4):483-488. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX201004013.htm [48] 郭彦, 李建平.一种分离时间尺度的统计降尺度模型的建立和应用——以华北汛期降水为例.大气科学, 2012, 36(2):385-396. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11045 [49] Marzban C.Neural networks for postprocessing model output:ARPS.Mon Wea Rev, 2003, 131:1103-1111. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1103:NNFPMO>2.0.CO;2 [50] Saha S.Response of the NMC MRF model to systematic error correction within integration.Mon Wea Rev, 1992, 120:345-360. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0345:ROTNMM>2.0.CO;2 [51] 任宏利. 动力相似预报的策略和方法. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2006. [52] 赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 等.近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系.物理学报, 2011, 60(9):099205. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-WLXB201109126.htm [53] 陈桂英, 赵振国.短期气候预测评估方法和业务初估.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(2):178-185. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980225&flag=1 [54] 赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰, 等.夏季西太副高的不同类型下中国汛期大尺度旱涝分布.气象学报, 2012, 70(5):1021-1031. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2012.085 [55] 杨杰, 封国林, 赵俊虎, 等.夏季西太副高的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示.气象学报, 2012, 70(5):1032-1044. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2012.086 [56] 赵俊虎, 封国林, 王启光, 等.2010年我国夏季降水异常气候成因分析及预测.大气科学, 2011, 35(6):1069-1078. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201106008.htm [57] 赵俊虎, 杨杰, 封国林, 等.2011年我国夏季降水动力统计预测与异常成因.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(1):43-54. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20130105 [58] 宋连春, 肖风劲, 李威.我国现代气候业务现状及未来发展趋势.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(5):513-520. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20130501 [59] 魏凤英.我国短期气候预测的物理基础及其预测思路.应用气象学报, 2011, 22(1):1-11. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20110101 [60] 任国玉, 封国林, 严中伟.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望.气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4):337-353. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH201004003.htm [61] 封国林, 杨涵洧, 张世轩, 等.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探.大气科学, 2012, 36(5):1009-1026. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11220 [62] 杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 等.近40年我国极端温度的变化趋势和季节特征.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(1):29-36. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20100104 [63] 赵平, 周秀骥.近40年我国东部降水持续时间和雨带移动的年代际变化.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(5):548-556. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060512 [64] 魏凤英.气候统计诊断与预测方法研究进展——纪念中国气象科学研究院成立50周年.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(6):736-742. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20060611 [65] 范可, 王会军, Choi Young-Jean.一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型.科学通报, 2007, 52(24):2900-2905. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074x.2007.24.014 [66] 黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武.相似-动力模式的由夏季报冬季的季节预报试验.气象学报, 1993, 51(1):118-121. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1993.014 [67] Wang H J, Fan K.A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies.Wea Forecasting, 2009, 24:548-554. doi: 10.1175/2008WAF2222171.1 [68] 王会军, 范可, 郎咸梅, 等.我国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术.北京:气象出版社, 2012:147-159. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGQX200210001069.htm [69] 赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 等.欧亚中高纬阻塞高压关键区高度场动力-统计跨季度预测试验.物理学报, 2013, 62(9):099206, doi: 10.7498/aps.62.099206. -
下载:
图(5)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3637
- HTML全文浏览量: 1283
- PDF下载量: 1295
- 被引次数: 0
