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The Progress on Application of Ensemble Prediction to Flood Forecasting
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摘要:
水文集合预报是近几年正在形成和发展的水文预报分支，其发展大致可分为两个阶段：第1阶段是1970年至20世纪末进行的长期径流预报，第2阶段从21世纪开始，主要学习气象数值预报中集合预报的概念在短期水文集合预报中的应用。目前，除了单一预报中心的集合预报系统在水文集合预报中应用外，多个预报中心的集合预报大集合也逐渐被应用于流域水文预报，甚至一些小流域的洪水预报。如利用TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) 集合预报驱动形成的大气-水文-水力的串联系统进行早期的洪水预警研究, 将全球集合预报作为洪水模型输入的有限区域模式的初始条件和侧边界条件的研究。这些均表明，基于水文集合预报的洪水预报增加了预报附加值，并能够延长预警提前时间。以欧洲中期天气预报中心的欧洲洪水预警系统 (EFAS) 和美国NOAA的先进水文预报系统 (AHPS) 为代表，实现了集合预报在洪水中的实时业务预报, 但仍存在数据处理和计算量大，以及如何基于集合水文预报做决策等问题。对于水文集合预报的前处理和后处理的各种技术已处于探索和验证阶段，如何更好地理解基于概率预报的洪水预警决策仍存在许多困难和挑战。
Abstract:Hydrological Ensemble Prediction is a forming and developing branch of hydrology. Its development can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage is the longer term streamflow predictions stage from 1970 to the end of the 20th Century, and the second stage is to learn the concept of the numerical weather forecast applied to hydrological ensemble prediction at the beginning of the 21st Century. Compared with the single deterministic prediction meteorological, ensemble numerical forecasting can describe the uncertainly quantitatively. In recent ten years, the application of meteorological ensemble numerical forecasting to hydrological ensemble prediction on the warning of flood forecasting attaches great importance.In addition to single ensemble system, multiple ensemble system is gradually applied to hydrological ensemble forecast, even in some small basins. To study potential benefits of using the TIGGE database in early flood warning, an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic coupled cascade system driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts is set up. Some hydrological ensemble prediction systems use high resolution ECMWF-EPS or limited area EPS as weather forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. Over the past decade, many studies show that forecasts based on hydrological ensemble prediction systems not only can add accuracy but also increase the warning lead time. The European Flood Alert System and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services of NOAA realize real-time prediction in flood forecast, but there are still some problems, such as large amount of calculation and massive data to handle.The various pre-process and post-process of ensemble forecasts of techniques are in the stage of exploration and verification. Besides, there are a great deal of challenges and difficulties in understanding how to make flood warning decisions based on probabilistic forecasts better.
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图 2 气象-水文集合预报示意图
Fig. 2 The flow chart of application of ensemble prediction system to warning of inundation
图 3 淮河流域两个子流域不同季节、不同预见期 (1~14 d) 集合预报累积降水后处理Brier技巧评分[28]
Fig. 3 Brier skill scores (BSS) of post-processing ensemble forecasts of cumulative precipitation for different lead times (1-14 days) and different seasons (including all seasons) in two sub-basins of the Huai River Basin (from Reference [28])
表 1 国际主要的数值集合预报驱动的洪水预报 (准) 业务系统[40]
Table 1 Examples of operational and pre-operational flood forecasting systems routinely using ensemble weather predictions as inputs (from Reference [40])
预报服务机构及项目 集合数值预报输入场 欧盟联合研究中心的欧洲洪水预警系统 (EFAS) ECMWF，COSMO-LEPS (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling-Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System) 佐治亚理工学院 (孟加拉国项目) ECMWF 芬兰水文局 ECMWF 瑞典水文气象局 ECMWF 美国国家海洋大气管理局先进水文预报系统 (AHPS) NOAA 概率水文和大气洪水事件模拟的中尺度高山计划示范 (瑞士阿尔卑斯山地区) COSMO-LEPS 匈牙利布达佩斯水资源研究所 ECMWF 荷兰水运局 ECMWF, COSMO-LEPS 比利时皇家气象研究所 ECMWF 比利时佛兰德环境署 ECMWF 法国气象局 ECMWF，Arpege EPS 奥地利蒂洛尔州萨尔茨堡市土地委员会 ECMWF和Aladin集成模式 巴伐利亚洪水预报中心 COSMO-LEPS 
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