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强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

郑永光 周康辉 盛杰 林隐静 田付友 唐文苑 蓝渝 朱文剑

郑永光, 周康辉, 盛杰, 等. 强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展. 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601.
引用本文: 郑永光, 周康辉, 盛杰, 等. 强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展. 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601.
Zheng Yongguang, Zhou Kanghui, Sheng Jie, et al. Advances in techniques of monitoring, forecasting and warning of severe convective weather. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20150601
Citation: Zheng Yongguang, Zhou Kanghui, Sheng Jie, et al. Advances in techniques of monitoring, forecasting and warning of severe convective weather. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601
资助项目: 

公益性行业 (气象) 科研专项 GYHY201406002

国家自然科学基金项目 41375051

国家重点基础研究发展计划 2013CB430106

详细信息
    通信作者:

    郑永光, email: zhengyg@cma.gov.cn

Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

  • 摘要: 强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。
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  • 收稿日期:  2015-08-11
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