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定量降水预报技术进展

毕宝贵 代刊 王毅 符娇兰 曹勇 刘凑华

毕宝贵, 代刊, 王毅, 等. 定量降水预报技术进展. 应用气象学报, 2016, 27(5): 534-549. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160503.
引用本文: 毕宝贵, 代刊, 王毅, 等. 定量降水预报技术进展. 应用气象学报, 2016, 27(5): 534-549. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160503.
Bi Baogui, Dai Kan, Wang Yi, et al. Advances in techniques of quantitative precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 534-549. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20160503
Citation: Bi Baogui, Dai Kan, Wang Yi, et al. Advances in techniques of quantitative precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 534-549. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20160503

定量降水预报技术进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160503
资助项目: 

公益性行业 (气象) 专项 GYHY201306002

气象关键技术集成与应用项目 CMAGJ2015Z06

详细信息
    通信作者:

    毕宝贵, email: bibg@cma.gov.cn

Advances in Techniques of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

  • 摘要: 对21世纪以来定量降水预报技术流程中的数值模式预报、统计后处理、检验评估和预报员作用4个方面的研究工作进行了归纳,主要进展包括:业务全球模式对于降水的预报能力持续提升,而发展高分辨率模式 (尤其是对流尺度模式) 和集合预报是提高定量降水预报精准化水平的主要途径,且将两者相结合以促进短期降水预报是发展趋势;统计后处理技术已发展到应用数据挖掘方法对海量预报数据中有效信息进行提取和集成,而再预报资料的出现将进一步促进统计后处理技术的发展;为解决评估精细化定量降水预报面临的新问题,多种新的检验技术得到发展和应用,如极端降水检验评分、空间检验技术及概率检验方法等;预报员在模式和后处理方法上能够提供的附加值越来越有限,但在预报流程中仍将处于核心地位,其角色将逐渐向帮助用户进行决策方向转变。文章指出,定量降水预报技术的发展所面临的挑战包括大气水汽观测及同化技术改进、暖区和复杂地形下暴雨预报等科学问题的解决。
  • 图  1  现代化的定量降水预报技术流程

    Fig. 1  Modern technique flow of quantitative precipitation forecast

    表  1  定量降水订正与集成技术概要

    Table  1  A brief summary of QPF calibration and integration

    名称 主要工作 技术特点
    模式输出统计方法
    (MOS)
    Antolik[80]2000年回顾了美
    国国家天气局的统计定量降
    水预报
    ·利用预报因子和降水建立回归方程;
    ·可以针对站点或是格点的降水进行建模,而精
      细化的格点MOS方法依赖于高分辨率的定量
      降水估测产品;
    ·对有降水量的简单的偏差订正不适用于无降
      水的情况
    基于配料法的
    强降水等级预报
    Doswell[81]1996年引入气象研
    究,并用于暴洪预报;
    张小玲等[82]2010年应用于我国
    的暴雨预报
    ·依据预报量和指示量之间的物理联系建立相
      应的预报方程,而不是简单依赖于回归分析;
    ·具有清晰的物理意义
    概率匹配集合
    平均方法
    Elbert[48]2001年首先提出并应
    用于多模式“Poor Man”的集成;
    Fang等[52]2013年针对我国台湾
    登陆台风的强降水提出了改进的
    频率匹配方法
    ·相对于单一模式能够提高降水预报技巧,消减
      系统性的误差;
    ·既能保留降水集合平均的空间分布,也能保留
      集合成员的概率分布,好于集合平均方法;
    ·过滤掉了不可预报的小尺度信息[83]
    频率订正技术 Zhu等[84]提出并应用于NCEP的
    GFS和GEFS模式的QPF预报
    ·利用观测降水量的频率分布校正预报降水量
      的频率分布;
    ·有效减小了降水预报误差,降水的分布型也更
      加准确
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  新的定量降水检验评分技术概要

    Table  2  A brief summary of new QPF verification scores

    检验目的 方法概要
    检验不同气候背景的降水预报 ·Rodwell等[119-120]发展了概率空间稳定相当误差 (SEEPS) 评分方法,
      该方法通过降水长期气候特征分布确定的降水等级阈值,便于比较不
      同区域和不同季节的模式QPF性能;
    ·目前成为ECMWF、芬兰等气象部门主要检验评分手段,陈法敬等[121]
      也将该方法用于我国降水的预报检验
    检验极端降水的预报能力 ·Stephenson等[122]提出用极端依赖评分 (EDS) 检验小概率事件;
    ·EDS不断得到改进,发展了稳定EDS (SEDS) 评分方法[123],以及基于
      极端依赖指数和稳定极端依赖指数多变量的评分方法[124],可较好地
      分辨不同模式对极端事件的预报能力[114, 125]
    对比不同类型的预报评估 ·Mason等[126]和Weigel等[127]提出通用辨别评分 (GDS) 用于度量两种
      不同实况能被相应的预报正确分辨的可能性大小,适用于不同预报类
      型的对比
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  定量降水预报的4类空间检验技术概要

    Table  3  A brief summary of QPF spatial verification methods

    方法名称 方法概要
    场变形技术 ·将误差分解为位置、量级和残余误差,给出较为清晰的物理意义;
    ·由Hoffman等[129]在检验方法中首先引入,标志着空间检验技术开端
    特征检验技术 ·识别降水目标,然后进行配对和对比,评估目标个体之间的属性差异;
    ·采用不同方法识别降水目标,如简单阈值[130]、圆柱卷积滤波[131]
    尺度分离技术 ·采用空间滤波分解尺度,评估模式对不同尺度上降水结构的预报能力;
    ·因采用的滤波方法不同而有所差异,如Casati等[132]基于二维小波发展
      了强度-尺度检验技术,该方法已应用于QPF临近预报检验中[133]
    邻域检验技术 ·对比检验考虑了邻近空间或时间范围内的预报和观测降水事件[134];
    ·包含了降水固有的时空分布不确定性,尤其适合高分辨率模式的检验
    下载: 导出CSV
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