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沈学顺, 苏勇, 胡江林, 等. GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化. 应用气象学报, 2017, 28(1): 1-10. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170101..
引用本文: 沈学顺, 苏勇, 胡江林, 等. GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化. 应用气象学报, 2017, 28(1): 1-10. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170101.
Shen Xueshun, Su Yong, Hu Jianglin, et al. Development and operation transformation of GRAPES global middle-range forecast system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(1): 1-10. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20170101.
Citation: Shen Xueshun, Su Yong, Hu Jianglin, et al. Development and operation transformation of GRAPES global middle-range forecast system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(1): 1-10. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20170101.

GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170101
资助项目: 

公益性行业(气象)科研专项 GYHY201006013

中国气象局数值预报GRAPES发展专项 GRAPES-FZZX-2016-15

“十二五”国家科技支撑计划 2012BAC22B00

公益性行业(气象)科研专项 GYHY20-1206007

公益性行业(气象)科研专项 GYHY201106008

公益性行业(气象)科研专项 GYHY201406005

详细信息
    通信作者:

    沈学顺, email: shenxs@cma.gov.cn

Development and Operation Transformation of GRAPES Global Middle-range Forecast System

  • 摘要: 该文回顾了中国气象局全球中期数值天气预报系统GRAPES_GFS的研发历程,重点介绍了近年来在GRAPES_GFS研发过程中的重要进展,概要阐述了这些进展对GRAPES_GFS业务:化的贡献。动力框架方面的改进主要包括位温垂直平流的算法、极区滤波方案、标量平流方案、垂直速度衰减(damping)算法、提高模式分辨率等,改善了模式框架的稳定性、计算精度以及质量守恒性。物理过程方面的改进主要包括RRTMG辐射方案、CoLM陆面过程方案、积云对流、边界层过程、双参数云物理方案,以及物理过程的调用计算等,全面提升了模式物理过程的预报能力。全球三维变分同化方面,研发了模式空间三维变分(3DVar)系统、资料质量控制和偏差订正技术、卫星资料同化方面的相关技术等。同时,对目前GRAPES_GFS2.0的预报能力进行了评估,总体来说,该系统各项预报指标全面超越GRAPES_GFS1.0,与T639相比等压面要素预报在对流层也有明显优势,降水、2 m温度等预报也优势明显。
  • 图  1  年平均北半球位势高度分析场与ERA-Interim

    Fig. 1  Annual mean of geopotential height root mean square error analyzed by GRAPES_3DVar against ERA-Interim averaged over the Northern Hemisphere

    图  2  1年循环试验中第1,3,7天预报的北半球500 hPa高度场距平相关系数(a)和均方根误差(b)

    Fig. 2  500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation coefficient (a) and root mean square error (b) for the 1st, 3rd, 7th-day forecast in one year cycle run over the Nothern Hemisphere

    图  3  GRAPES_GFS2.0与T639预报的中国区域各量级降水ETS (a)和Bias (b)技巧评分

    Fig. 3  Two-year averaged ETS and Bias scores over mainland China for GRAPES_GFS2.0 and T639

    表  1  不同分辨率下批量预报试验1个月平均的距平相关系数

    Table  1  The one-month averaged anomaly correlation coefficient for batch forecast test at different resolutions

    积分时间/h 北半球500 hPa 东亚500 hPa
    L36a50 L60a50 L60a25 L36a50 L60a50 L60a25
    0 1 1 1 1 1 1
    24 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
    48 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.98
    72 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.92 0.94 0.95
    96 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.84 0.89 0.89
    120 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.75 0.82 0.82
    144 0.69 0.75 0.75 0.67 0.75 0.74
    168 0.58 0.66 0.66 0.58 0.69 0.69
    192 0.48 0.57 0.57 0.47 0.62 0.59
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2009年7月批量预报试验的统计检验结果

    Table  2  Statistics verifcation for forecast experiments in Jul 2009

    积分时间/h 北半球500 hPa 南半球500 hPa
    距平相关系数 均方根误差 距平相关系数 均方根误差
    ORI NEW ORI NEW ORI NEW ORI NEW
    0 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 3
    24 0.97 0.98 8 8 0.98 0.99 13 11
    48 0.96 0.97 17 15 0.97 0.98 24 22
    72 0.93 0.95 26 23 0.94 0.96 39 36
    96 0.86 0.89 36 32 0.89 0.91 55 50
    120 0.76 0.80 46 41 0.80 0.83 73 67
    144 0.67 0.72 56 50 0.72 0.76 91 84
    163 0.54 0.60 63 57 0.61 0.65 104 97
    192 0.45 0.52 69 63 0.49 0.54 118 111
    注:ORI为未更新时的预报结果,NEW为更新积云对流和边界层参数化之后的预报结果。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  积云对流和边界层的改进物理方案

    Table  3  The improvement of cumulus convection and boundary layer scheme

    物理过程方案 改进点
    深对流 ①基于局地CFL条件的云底最大容许质量通量[23]
    ②引入有组织的卷入[24]
    ③考虑由于积云对流引起的气压梯度力变化而带来的动量输送[25-26]
    浅对流 ①湍流扩散型的方案改为质量通量型
    ②云底质量通量计算改为地表浮力通量的函数[27]
    ③夹卷率计算改为Siebesma (2003)方案[28]
    边界层 ①考虑层积云顶由于辐射冷却引起的湍流混合
    ②对于夜间稳定边界层,将基于近地层稳定度函数的扩散计算改为局地扩散方案
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  两年循环预报试验结果在北半球和东亚区的距平相关系数

    Table  4  Anomaly correlation coefficeient in the Northern Hemisphere and east Asian for two-year cycle forecast

    积分时间/h 北半球500 hPa 东亚500 hPa
    T639 GRAPES_GFS 1.0 GRAPES_GFS 2.0 T639 GRAPES_GFS 1.0 GRAPES_GFS 2.0
    0 1 1 1 1 1 1
    24 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99
    48 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.97
    72 0.93 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.94
    96 0.88 0.84 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.88
    120 0.80 0.74 0.81 0.80 0.72 0.82
    144 0.70 0.64 0.72 0.71 0.62 0.73
    168 0.59 0.54 0.62 0.60 0.51 0.63
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-03-22
  • 修回日期:  2016-10-12
  • 刊出日期:  2017-01-31

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