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冬季稳定性降水相态预报研究进展

赵琳娜 慕秀香 马翠平 王秀娟 李缔华

赵琳娜, 慕秀香, 马翠平, 等. 冬季稳定性降水相态预报研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102
引用本文: 赵琳娜, 慕秀香, 马翠平, 等. 冬季稳定性降水相态预报研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102
Zhao Linna, Mu Xiuxiang, Ma Cuiping, et al. A review on stable precipitation type forecast in winter. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(1): 12-24. DOI: 10. 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102
Citation: Zhao Linna, Mu Xiuxiang, Ma Cuiping, et al. A review on stable precipitation type forecast in winter. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(1): 12-24. DOI: 10. 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102

冬季稳定性降水相态预报研究进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210102
资助项目: 

中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金 2020KJ014

国家重点基础研发计划 2015CB452806

中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费项目 2020Z011

国家科技支撑计划课题 2015BAK10B03

国家自然科学基金项目 41475044

详细信息
    通信作者:

    赵琳娜, zhaoln@cma.gov.cn

A Review on Stable Precipitation Type Forecast in Winter

  • 摘要: 冬季降水无论对地面的生产生活还是对高空飞机航行都可能造成严重灾害,降水相态预报的准确性决定了冬季降水预报的成功,该文系统回顾了近几十年降水相态预报取得的成果。降水相态预报方法大致分为3类:第1类是基于观测或数值天气预报建立的指标以及回归方程,其中某些方法高度依赖数值天气预报模式准确率;第2类是基于数值天气预报模式的微物理方案法和集合预报法;第3类是基于观测和数值预报产品的人工智能预报法。近年来降水相态模式预报产品准确率不断提高,成为降水相态预报中一个重要的产品支撑。但如何将降水相态形成机制的微物理研究成果用于改善数值预报模式降水相态预报的技巧,以及如何利用人工智能等技术提高降水相态预报的准确率等方面还需要不断努力。
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-07
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