中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

杨建莹; 霍治国; 王培娟; 邬定荣; 毛红丹; 孔瑞

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20210103

中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103

杨建莹¹,
霍治国^{1, 2, ,},
王培娟¹,
邬定荣¹,
毛红丹¹,
孔瑞¹

1.
中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
2.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044

资助项目:

国家重点研发计划 2017YFC1502801

国家重点研发计划 2019YFD1002203

中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金 2019KJ008

详细信息

通信作者:
霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn

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- 摘要浏览量: 1438
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-08-20
- 修回日期: 2020-10-19
- 刊出日期: 2021-01-31

Evaluation Index Construction and Hazard Risk Assessment on Apple Drought in Northern China

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

摘要

摘要: 以中国北方苹果主产区为研究对象，利用1981—2018年气象资料、1981—2017年苹果干旱灾情历史资料和发育期资料，在构建干旱指数（D_I）的基础上，以历史灾情反演、灾害样本重建和历史灾害过程解析为主线，采用独立样本T检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）检验、累积概率反函数值等方法，构建适用于中国北方苹果主产区的苹果干旱等级指标体系，并在此基础上开展苹果干旱危险性评价。结果表明：构建的干旱指数（D_I）能有效表征苹果干旱灾害，同一等级苹果不同发育期干旱指标阈值从大到小依次为果树萌动-萌芽期、萌芽-盛花期和盛花-成熟期，苹果危险性从大到小依次为萌芽-盛花期、果树萌动-萌芽期和盛花-成熟期，渤海湾产区及黄土高原产区北部是苹果干旱的高危险区域。基于历史灾情资料加工与再分析的苹果干旱等级指标体系构建方法可为经济林果气象灾害研究提供新思路，研究结果可为中国北方苹果干旱防灾减损气象服务、灾害保险提供基础支撑。
- 干旱指数;
- 苹果;
- T检验;
- 分布拟合;
- 累积概率
Abstract: It is of great merit to construct apple drought index and analyze its hazard risk so as to support apple drought monitoring, prevention and mitigation, as well as agricultural disaster insurance management. Based on meteorological data, associated with historical disaster and phenophase data, apple drought index (D_I) in northern China is firstly constructed, which fully considered previous and current water demand and precipitation supply. Afterwards, historical disaster remodeling, disaster sample reconstruction and process-based historical disaster analysis are comprehensively used as key technologies in evaluating the level of apple drought, integrating the independent sample T-test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test, cumulative probability inverse method, etc. Meanwhile, the apple drought risk is consequently estimated to seek the characteristics of apple drought hazard in detail. The results show that there are significant differences by independent T-test of drought index (D_I) between historical recorded disaster samples and the non-disaster samples in three apple tree phenophases, i.e., the tree germinating to flower budding period, flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature periods (passing the test of 0.05 level). Therefore, the apple drought index constructed can effectively represent the drought disaster in different stages of apple development. The threshold of D_I in the same level is higher in tree germinating to flower budding period, followed by flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature periods. The drought risk during flower budding to full bloom is high with regional average apple drought hazard index (M) of 0.44, followed by tree germinating to flower budding period and full bloom to mature period, with reginal average M of 0.40 and 0.25, respectively. Furthermore, the Bohai Bay region and northern Loess Plateau are detected as high-risk areas of apple drought. The evaluation method of apple drought based on historical disaster processing and re-analysis can provide new ideas for economic forest and fruit meteorological disaster research. The results of apple drought hazard risk assessment could provide evidence for the prevention and mitigation of apple drought in northern China.
- drought index;
- apple;
- T-test;
- distribution fitting;
- cumulative probability

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图 1 研究区域内气象站点分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of weather stations in study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 苹果不同发育阶段干旱指数正态分布累积概率函数

Fig. 2 Normal distribution cumulative probability of D_I at different stages

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 北方苹果不同发育阶段不同等级干旱发生概率站次比

Fig. 3 Station ratio of drought probability at different stages of northern apple in different development stages

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 北方苹果干旱危险性指数空间分布

(a)果树萌动-萌芽期, (b)萌芽-盛花期, (c)盛花-成熟期, (d)树体活跃期

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of apple drought hazard index in northern China

(a)tree germinating to flower budding, (b)flower budding to full bloom, (c)full bloom to mature, (d)tree active period

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同年代苹果干旱样本量

Table 1 Number of apple drought samples in different decades

时段	发育阶段			合计
时段	果树萌动-萌芽期	萌芽-盛花期	盛花-成熟期	合计
1981—1990年	6	2	5	13
1991—2000年	6	16	44	66
2001—2010年	5	20	36	61
2011—2017年	8	12	47	67

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同发育阶段有灾样本、无灾样本干旱指数详细信息及独立样本T检验显著性

Table 2 Detailed information of D_I in disaster and non-disaster samples and independent sample T-test in different stages

发育阶段	样本集合	样本量	最大值	最小值	下四分位	上四分位	中位数
果树萌动-萌芽期	有灾	25	0.99	0.78	0.82	0.92	0.88
	无灾(1991年)	106	0.39	-6.36	-0.25	0.33	0.17
	无灾(2003年)	92	0.46	-3.17	0.02	0.34	0.22
萌芽-盛花期	有灾	50	0.98	0.60	0.79	0.90	0.85
	无灾(1991年)	131	0.41	-3.20	-1.17	0.29	0.08
	无灾(2003年)	103	0.39	-3.03	-2.49	0.27	0.13
盛花-成熟期	有灾	132	1.00	0.51	0.69	0.88	0.76
	无灾(1991年)	38	-0.10	-1.60	-0.32	-0.14	-0.28
	无灾(2003年)	118	0.05	-2.96	-1.05	-0.13	-0.38

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 干旱指数正态分布拟合参数及25%，50%和75%累积概率反函数值

Table 3 Normal distribution parameters of D_I and 25%, 50% and 75% cumulative probability inverse values

发育阶段	平均值	标准差	累积概率反函数值
发育阶段	平均值	标准差	25%	50%	75%
果树萌动-萌芽期	0.875	0.063	0.83	0.88	0.92
萌芽-盛花期	0.855	0.084	0.80	0.85	0.91
盛花-成熟期	0.780	0.108	0.71	0.78	0.85

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 苹果不同发育阶段干旱等级指标

Table 4 Evaluation level of apple drought at different stages

发育阶段	等级	干旱指数
果树萌动-萌芽期	轻	0.83≤D_I < 0.88
	中	0.88≤D_I < 0.92
	重	D_I≥0.92
萌芽-盛花期	轻	0.80≤D_I < 0.85
	中	0.85≤D_I < 0.91
	重	D_I≥0.91
盛花-成熟期	轻	0.71≤D_I < 0.78
	中	0.78≤D_I < 0.85
	重	D_I≥0.85

下载: 导出CSV

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中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103

通信作者:
霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn

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Evaluation Index Construction and Hazard Risk Assessment on Apple Drought in Northern China

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中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103

通信作者: 霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn

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Evaluation Index Construction and Hazard Risk Assessment on Apple Drought in Northern China

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出版历程

目录

通信作者:
霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn