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中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

杨建莹 霍治国 王培娟 邬定荣 毛红丹 孔瑞

杨建莹, 霍治国, 王培娟, 等. 中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(1): 25-37. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103
引用本文: 杨建莹, 霍治国, 王培娟, 等. 中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(1): 25-37. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103
Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Evaluation index construction and hazard risk assessment on apple drought in northern china. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(1): 25-37. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210103
Citation: Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Evaluation index construction and hazard risk assessment on apple drought in northern china. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(1): 25-37. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210103

中国北方苹果干旱等级指标构建及危险性评价

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210103
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2017YFC1502801

国家重点研发计划 2019YFD1002203

中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金 2019KJ008

详细信息
    通信作者:

    霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn

Evaluation Index Construction and Hazard Risk Assessment on Apple Drought in Northern China

  • 摘要: 以中国北方苹果主产区为研究对象,利用1981—2018年气象资料、1981—2017年苹果干旱灾情历史资料和发育期资料,在构建干旱指数(DI)的基础上,以历史灾情反演、灾害样本重建和历史灾害过程解析为主线,采用独立样本T检验、Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验、累积概率反函数值等方法,构建适用于中国北方苹果主产区的苹果干旱等级指标体系,并在此基础上开展苹果干旱危险性评价。结果表明:构建的干旱指数(DI)能有效表征苹果干旱灾害,同一等级苹果不同发育期干旱指标阈值从大到小依次为果树萌动-萌芽期、萌芽-盛花期和盛花-成熟期,苹果危险性从大到小依次为萌芽-盛花期、果树萌动-萌芽期和盛花-成熟期,渤海湾产区及黄土高原产区北部是苹果干旱的高危险区域。基于历史灾情资料加工与再分析的苹果干旱等级指标体系构建方法可为经济林果气象灾害研究提供新思路,研究结果可为中国北方苹果干旱防灾减损气象服务、灾害保险提供基础支撑。
  • 图  1  研究区域内气象站点分布

    Fig. 1  Distribution of weather stations in study area

    图  2  苹果不同发育阶段干旱指数正态分布累积概率函数

    Fig. 2  Normal distribution cumulative probability of DI at different stages

    图  3  北方苹果不同发育阶段不同等级干旱发生概率站次比

    Fig. 3  Station ratio of drought probability at different stages of northern apple in different development stages

    图  4  北方苹果干旱危险性指数空间分布

    (a)果树萌动-萌芽期, (b)萌芽-盛花期, (c)盛花-成熟期, (d)树体活跃期

    Fig. 4  Spatial distribution of apple drought hazard index in northern China

    (a)tree germinating to flower budding, (b)flower budding to full bloom, (c)full bloom to mature, (d)tree active period

    表  1  不同年代苹果干旱样本量

    Table  1  Number of apple drought samples in different decades

    时段 发育阶段 合计
    果树萌动-萌芽期 萌芽-盛花期 盛花-成熟期
    1981—1990年 6 2 5 13
    1991—2000年 6 16 44 66
    2001—2010年 5 20 36 61
    2011—2017年 8 12 47 67
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同发育阶段有灾样本、无灾样本干旱指数详细信息及独立样本T检验显著性

    Table  2  Detailed information of DI in disaster and non-disaster samples and independent sample T-test in different stages

    发育阶段 样本集合 样本量 最大值 最小值 下四分位 上四分位 中位数
    果树萌动-萌芽期 有灾 25 0.99 0.78 0.82 0.92 0.88
    无灾(1991年) 106 0.39 -6.36 -0.25 0.33 0.17
    无灾(2003年) 92 0.46 -3.17 0.02 0.34 0.22
    萌芽-盛花期 有灾 50 0.98 0.60 0.79 0.90 0.85
    无灾(1991年) 131 0.41 -3.20 -1.17 0.29 0.08
    无灾(2003年) 103 0.39 -3.03 -2.49 0.27 0.13
    盛花-成熟期 有灾 132 1.00 0.51 0.69 0.88 0.76
    无灾(1991年) 38 -0.10 -1.60 -0.32 -0.14 -0.28
    无灾(2003年) 118 0.05 -2.96 -1.05 -0.13 -0.38
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  干旱指数正态分布拟合参数及25%,50%和75%累积概率反函数值

    Table  3  Normal distribution parameters of DI and 25%, 50% and 75% cumulative probability inverse values

    发育阶段 平均值 标准差 累积概率反函数值
    25% 50% 75%
    果树萌动-萌芽期 0.875 0.063 0.83 0.88 0.92
    萌芽-盛花期 0.855 0.084 0.80 0.85 0.91
    盛花-成熟期 0.780 0.108 0.71 0.78 0.85
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  苹果不同发育阶段干旱等级指标

    Table  4  Evaluation level of apple drought at different stages

    发育阶段 等级 干旱指数
    果树萌动-萌芽期 0.83≤DI < 0.88
    0.88≤DI < 0.92
    DI≥0.92
    萌芽-盛花期 0.80≤DI < 0.85
    0.85≤DI < 0.91
    DI≥0.91
    盛花-成熟期 0.71≤DI < 0.78
    0.78≤DI < 0.85
    DI≥0.85
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-08-20
  • 修回日期:  2020-10-19
  • 刊出日期:  2021-01-31

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