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中国北方冬小麦蚜虫气候风险评估

王纯枝 霍治国 郭安红 黄冲 张蕾 陆明红 何延波 刘万才

王纯枝, 霍治国, 郭安红, 等. 中国北方冬小麦蚜虫气候风险评估. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
引用本文: 王纯枝, 霍治国, 郭安红, 等. 中国北方冬小麦蚜虫气候风险评估. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, Huang Chong, et al. Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
Citation: Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, Huang Chong, et al. Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210203

中国北方冬小麦蚜虫气候风险评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2017YFC1502402

详细信息
    通信作者:

    霍治国, huozg@cma.gov.cn

Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China

  • 摘要: 基于1958—2018年中国北方冬小麦主产区8个主产省(市)小麦蚜虫发生面积、防治面积和小麦播种面积、产量损失、561个气象站点逐日气象资料和典型农业气象站小麦发育期资料,采用相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析等方法,构建华北、黄淮及苏皖地区小麦蚜虫分区域的气候致灾指数。以小麦蚜虫年代际气候致灾指数所划分不同致灾等级发生频次作为小麦蚜虫气候危险性指标,采用小麦蚜虫发生面积率作为脆弱性指标,防治面积与发生面积比值作为防灾减灾能力指标,综合评估小麦蚜虫气候风险趋势。结果表明:北方冬小麦主产区小麦蚜虫气候危险性呈增加态势,年代际差异明显;小麦蚜虫发生脆弱性随年代变化也呈逐步加重态势;小麦蚜虫防灾减灾能力总体呈逐步增强趋势,20世纪90年代提升显著;90年代起小麦蚜虫气候风险逐步加重,高风险范围逐渐扩大,华北、黄淮分别于21世纪初、2011—2018年风险等级达最高;小麦蚜虫气候风险高的区域主要分布在北京、天津、河北中南部大部、山东北部部分地区,较高区域分布在山东大部、河南北部等地。
  • 图  1  小麦蚜虫平均发生面积

    Fig. 1  Average occurrence area of wheat aphids

    图  2  冬小麦研究区

    Fig. 2  Study area of winter wheat

    图  3  不同年代小麦蚜虫气候危险性

    Fig. 3  Climatic hazard of wheat aphids during different decades

    图  4  不同年代小麦蚜虫发生脆弱性

    Fig. 4  Vulnerability of wheat aphids occurrence in different decades

    图  5  不同年代小麦蚜虫防灾减灾能力

    Fig. 5  Disaster prevention capability of wheat aphids in different decades

    图  6  不同年代小麦蚜虫气候风险区划

    Fig. 6  Climatic risk of wheat aphids in different decades

    图  7  北方8个省(市) 小麦蚜虫发生面积率趋势

    Fig. 7  Tendency of wheat aphids ocurrence in 8 main winter wheat production provinces of northern China

    表  1  小麦蚜虫气候风险评估因子分级标准

    Table  1  Grade criterion of factors for assessing risk of wheat aphids

    因子 中等 较高
    危险性 [0.5,0.65] (0.65,0.70] (0.70,0.75] (0.75,1]
    脆弱性 [0.5,0.64] (0.64,0.77] (0.77,0.90] (0.90,1]
    防灾减灾能力 [0.5,0.68] (0.68,0.74] (0.74,0.80] (0.80,1]
    气候风险 [0.0,0.46] (0.46,0.53] (0.53,0.61] (0.61,1]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  北方冬麦区代表省(市)小麦蚜虫发生面积和发生面积率年代变化

    Table  2  Occurrence area, the ratio of occurrence area of wheat aphids in different decades in representative provinces of northern China

    时段 河南 山东 河北
    年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/% 年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/% 年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/%
    1961—1970年 84.9 22.4 14.1 4.0 46.3 21.8
    1971—1980年 69.7 18.5 110.5 29.6 104.5 39.4
    1981—1990年 143.4 31.6 190.8 49.1 179.2 74.9
    1991—2000年 306.7 63.1 332.9 82.6 255.0 98.0
    2001—2010年 355.5 70.0 334.1 97.6 220.5 92.0
    2011—2018年 376.4 67.4 350.9 89.4 228.9 95.3
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-11-02
  • 修回日期:  2020-12-30
  • 刊出日期:  2021-03-31

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