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Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China
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摘要: 基于1958—2018年中国北方冬小麦主产区8个主产省（市）小麦蚜虫发生面积、防治面积和小麦播种面积、产量损失、561个气象站点逐日气象资料和典型农业气象站小麦发育期资料，采用相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析等方法，构建华北、黄淮及苏皖地区小麦蚜虫分区域的气候致灾指数。以小麦蚜虫年代际气候致灾指数所划分不同致灾等级发生频次作为小麦蚜虫气候危险性指标，采用小麦蚜虫发生面积率作为脆弱性指标，防治面积与发生面积比值作为防灾减灾能力指标，综合评估小麦蚜虫气候风险趋势。结果表明：北方冬小麦主产区小麦蚜虫气候危险性呈增加态势，年代际差异明显；小麦蚜虫发生脆弱性随年代变化也呈逐步加重态势；小麦蚜虫防灾减灾能力总体呈逐步增强趋势，20世纪90年代提升显著；90年代起小麦蚜虫气候风险逐步加重，高风险范围逐渐扩大，华北、黄淮分别于21世纪初、2011—2018年风险等级达最高；小麦蚜虫气候风险高的区域主要分布在北京、天津、河北中南部大部、山东北部部分地区，较高区域分布在山东大部、河南北部等地。Abstract: Northern China is a main winter wheat production area and plays an important role in ensuring food security. Wheat aphids, as one kind of main agricultural pest, threaten wheat production. Based on wheat aphids disaster and prevention data, planting area and yield loss of wheat, growth period of winter wheat, and daily meteorological data at 561 observation stations from 1958 to 2018 in 8 main wheat production provinces of northern China, relationships between surface meteorological factors and the occurrence area of wheat aphids for every province in North China and Huanghuai area are fully analyzed using methods of correlation analysis, principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis in various time-periods from last December to 10 June. Eight key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in North China and 6 key meteorological factors for Huanghuai area are determined. The climate disaster indices of wheat aphids are established based on the normalized key meteorological factors and validated in 8 provinces. Furthermore, climatic risk aspects are assessed to explore the occurrence tendency of winter wheat aphids in northern China. The frequencies of different-level decadal climate disasters are taken as hazard index, the ratio of occurrence area of wheat aphids to the wheat-sown area is defined as vulnerability index, and the ratio of controlled area to occurrence area is calculated to measure the disaster prevention and mitigation capability.Comprehensive risk index is built by integrating hazard, vulnerability, disaster prevention and mitigation capability indexes to assess risk development trend in decades. The results show that the climatic hazard for wheat aphids tends to increase gradually and there are significant differences in different decades. The vulnerability for wheat aphids tends to be severe over time.The disaster prevention and mitigation capability for wheat aphids tends to improve gradually especially in the 1990s, and the trend slows down since 2001. The comprehensive climatic risk has been more severe and their scopes of the highest risk have been larger since the 1990s. The climatic risk is highest in Beijing, Tianjin, central-south Hebei, part of north Shandong. And it's the second highest in most of Shandong, north Henan, eastern and southern Shanxi, and north Jiangsu area, where effective measures should be taken to reduce the detriment of wheat aphids.
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Key words:
- northern China;
- wheat aphids;
- hazard;
- vulnerability;
- climatic risk
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图 4 不同年代小麦蚜虫发生脆弱性
Fig. 4 Vulnerability of wheat aphids occurrence in different decades
图 5 不同年代小麦蚜虫防灾减灾能力
Fig. 5 Disaster prevention capability of wheat aphids in different decades
图 7 北方8个省(市) 小麦蚜虫发生面积率趋势
Fig. 7 Tendency of wheat aphids ocurrence in 8 main winter wheat production provinces of northern China
表 1 小麦蚜虫气候风险评估因子分级标准
Table 1 Grade criterion of factors for assessing risk of wheat aphids
因子 低 中等 较高 高 危险性 [0.5，0.65] (0.65，0.70] (0.70，0.75] (0.75，1] 脆弱性 [0.5，0.64] (0.64，0.77] (0.77，0.90] (0.90，1] 防灾减灾能力 [0.5，0.68] (0.68，0.74] (0.74，0.80] (0.80，1] 气候风险 [0.0，0.46] (0.46，0.53] (0.53，0.61] (0.61，1] 
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表 2 北方冬麦区代表省(市)小麦蚜虫发生面积和发生面积率年代变化
Table 2 Occurrence area, the ratio of occurrence area of wheat aphids in different decades in representative provinces of northern China
时段 河南 山东 河北 年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/% 年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/% 年平均发生面积/万公顷次 年平均发生面积率/% 1961—1970年 84.9 22.4 14.1 4.0 46.3 21.8 1971—1980年 69.7 18.5 110.5 29.6 104.5 39.4 1981—1990年 143.4 31.6 190.8 49.1 179.2 74.9 1991—2000年 306.7 63.1 332.9 82.6 255.0 98.0 2001—2010年 355.5 70.0 334.1 97.6 220.5 92.0 2011—2018年 376.4 67.4 350.9 89.4 228.9 95.3
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