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Water Requirement and Precipitation Suitability of Apple Planting in Northern China
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摘要: 以中国北方7个苹果主产省为研究区域，基于研究区域及周边100 m范围内210个气象站1970—2019年逐日气象数据和1 km分辨率的数字高程数据，采用最小湿度法对作物系数（Kc）进行逐日估算，并利用基于样条函数插值理论的专业气象插值软件ANUSPLIN对逐日气象数据进行空间插值，计算苹果各关键生育期需水量和降水适宜度。结合苹果优势主产区地理分布确定降水适宜度阈值范围。利用相关数理统计方法明确苹果需水特征和降水适宜度时空变化特征，并对苹果全生育期降水适宜性进行评价。结果表明：苹果全年平均需水量大多数区域为500.0~800.0 mm，萌芽-幼果期、果实膨大期和着色-成熟期平均需水量占全年平均需水量的比率分别为0.186~0.282，0.392~0.562和0.159~0.282。苹果全年、萌芽-幼果期、果实膨大期和着色-成熟期降水适宜度阈值范围分别为0.49~2.07，0.25~1.70，0.54~2.25和0.46~2.65。各生育阶段降水适宜度处在阈值范围内的区域分别占85.4%，87.4%，85.6%和84.9%。苹果全生育期降水的最适宜、次适宜和不适宜区分别占研究区域的31.9%，50.6%和17.5%。Abstract: Precipitation is the main water source of apple production in northern China. Under the background of climate change, it is of great significance for apple planning to study the apple water requirement and precipitation suitability. Based on daily meteorological data and 1 km resolution digital elevation data of 210 meteorological stations in the study area and its surrounding area, the minimum humidity method is used to estimate the daily crop coefficient (Kc), and the spatial interpolation software ANUSPLIN based on spline function interpolation theory is applied. Then the water requirement and precipitation suitability of apple are calculated. According to the geographical distribution of the main planting area and percentile method, the threshold value range of precipitation suitability and optimal critical value of precipitation suitability are determined respectively. Using geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS, coefficient of variation, climate tendency rate and other related mathematical statistical methods, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of apple water requirement and precipitation suitability in the study area are analyzed, and the precipitation suitability index model of apple in whole growth period is constructed to evaluate the precipitation suitability. Results show that, the average annual water requirement in most areas is 500-800 mm, accounting for 87.1% of the study area. The average water requirement in the main planting areas is basically 500-800 mm.The ratios of the average water requirement in the germination and young fruit stage, fruit expanding stage and coloring and maturity stage to the annual average water demand are 0.186-0.282, 0.392-0.562 and 0.159-0.282, respectively. The threshold ranges of precipitation suitability of apple in the annual, germination and young fruit stage, fruit expanding stage and coloring and maturity stage are 0.49-2.07, 0.25-1.70, 0.54-2.25 and 0.46-2.65, respectively. The optimal threshold values are 0.71, 0.55, 0.82 and 0.56, respectively. Therefore 85.4%, 87.4%, 85.6% and 84.9% of the study area are suitable during each stage. The area from the most suitable critical value to the balance of water supply and demand account for 39.8%, 36.9%, 20.4% and 47.1% of the study area. The most suitable, sub suitable and unsuitable areas in the whole growth stage of apple account for 31.9%, 50.6% and 17.5% of the study area, respectively.
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图 1 中国北方7个苹果主产省及周边100 km范围内210个气象站点(a)及高程(b)分布
Fig. 1 Distribution of 210 meteorological stations(a) and digital elevation model(b) in seven major apple producing provinces in northern China and surrounding areas within 100 km
图 2 1970—2019年研究区域苹果全年需水量(a)及其气候倾向率(b)空间分布
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of statistical eigenvalues of annual water requirement for apple(a) and corresponding climate tendency rate(b) in the study area from 1970 to 2019
图 3 1970—2019年苹果关键生育期平均需水量及其气候倾向率空间分布
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of average water requirement and corresponding climate tendency in key growth stages of apple in the study area from 1970 to 2019
图 4 1970—2019年研究区域苹果全年降水适宜度(a)及其气候倾向率(b)空间分布
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of annual precipitation suitability for apple(a) and corresponding climate tendency rate(b) in the study area from 1970 to 2019
图 5 1970—2019年研究区域苹果萌芽-幼果期降水适宜度(a)及其气候倾向率(b)空间分布
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of precipitation suitability at germination and young fruit period of apple(a) and corresponding climate tendency rate(b) in the study area from 1970 to 2019
图 6 1970—2019年研究区域苹果果实膨大期降水适宜度(a)及其气候倾向率(b)空间分布
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of precipitation suitability at expanding period of apple(a) and corresponding climate tendency rate(b) in the study area from 1970 to 2019
图 7 1970—2019年研究区域苹果着色-成熟期降水适宜度(a)及其气候倾向率(b)空间分布
Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of statistical characteristic values of precipitation suitability at coloring and maturity period of apple(a) and corresponding climate tendency rate(b) in the study area from 1970 to 2019
表 1 各生育阶段降水适宜度阈值的划分
Table 1 Division of precipitation suitability threshold in different growth stages
统计量 全年 萌芽-幼果期 果实膨大期 着色-成熟期 阈值上限 2.07 1.7 2.25 2.65 供需平衡 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 最适宜临界值 0.71 0.55 0.82 0.56 阈值下限 0.49 0.25 0.54 0.46 
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表 2 陕西省黄陵县东部塬面苹果计算需水量相对误差(单位：%)
Table 2 Relative error of simulated water requirement of apple on the eastern tableland in Huangling County, Shaanxi Province(unit:%)
年份 全年 萌芽-幼果期 果实膨大期 着色-成熟期 2008 1.4 5.6 6.1 7.1 2009 5.2 6.1 4.1 9.0 2010 8.9 8.5 9.9 4.6
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