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不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

田野 姚雯 尹佳莉 郄秀书 曹海维 李晋 袁善锋 王东方

田野, 姚雯, 尹佳莉, 等. 不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 217-232. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207
引用本文: 田野, 姚雯, 尹佳莉, 等. 不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 217-232. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207
Tian Ye, Yao Wen, Yin Jiali, et al. Comparison of the performance of different lightning jump algorithms in beijing. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 217-232. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210207
Citation: Tian Ye, Yao Wen, Yin Jiali, et al. Comparison of the performance of different lightning jump algorithms in beijing. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 217-232. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210207

不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207
资助项目: 

灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题 2019LASW-B07

详细信息
    通信作者:

    姚雯, yaowen@cma.gov.cn

Comparison of the performance of different lightning jump algorithms in beijing

  • 摘要: 基于S波段多普勒天气雷达基数据、北京闪电定位网全闪定位数据和北京地区降雹的人工观测结果,对比分析Gatlin和σ两种闪电跃增算法在不同配置下对北京地区2015—2018年共177次冰雹天气过程的预警效果。结果表明:不同倍数的σ算法预警结果差别很大,2σ(要求当前闪电频数变化率超过之前平均闪电频数变化率两倍标准差)在σ算法中的预警效果最佳;不同N(总闪频数变化率的数量)配置下的Gatlin算法的预警结果差别不大,其中当N=6时的预警效果最佳。2σ算法的命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为80.2%,41.6%和51.1%,N=6的Gatlin算法的相应结果分别为82.5%,62.0%和35.2%。另外,详细分析了一次多单体雷暴过程和一次飑线过程中两种算法的应用情况,结果也表明Gatlin算法比2σ算法的命中率略高,但虚警率偏高很多,临界成功指数偏低。综合Gatlin算法和σ算法对冰雹预报结果评估情况,发现2σ闪电跃增算法更适于对北京冰雹天气的预警,对提升闪电数据在北京地区冰雹预报业务的可用度有一定参考价值。
  • 图  1  北京闪电定位网(BLNET)站点分布

    Fig. 1  Distribution map of BLNET stations

    图  2  不同σ阈值的预警效果

    Fig. 2  Comparison of early warning effects of different σ thresholds

    图  3  Gatlin算法中总闪频数变化率D数量N不同取值的预警效果

    Fig. 3  Comparison of the early warning effects of Gatlin algorithm with different N of D

    图  4  2017年8月8日北京多单体对流系统的雷达组合反射率因子演变

    (黑色六角形为降雹点)

    Fig. 4  Radar composite reflectivity of a multi-cell convective system across Beijing on 8 Aug 2017

    (the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position)

    图  5  2017年8月8日北京多单体对流系统识别结果

    (红色圈为产生降雹的单体,黑色六角形为降雹点)

    Fig. 5  Identification results of strong convection cells on 8 Aug 2017

    (the red polygon marks the hail-producing convection cell, the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position)

    图  6  叠加前后3 min内总闪定位的2017年8月8日北京强对流单体识别结果

    (红色圆点代表云闪, 红色×表示负地闪, 红色+表示正地闪;黑色六角形为降雹点,19:48图中插图为分裂单体与总闪定位结果叠加的放大图)

    Fig. 6  Identified strong convection cells and the located total flashes in 3 min before and after the corresponding time

    (the red dot indicates the intracloud flash, the red × indicates the negative cloud-to-ground flash and the red + indicates the positive cloud-to-ground flash, the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the illustration is an enlarged view of superposition of the split cell and the total flashes in the figure of 1948 BT)

    图  7  多单体对流系统降雹单体内的闪电频数变化和两种算法总闪频数变化率(柱状)和闪电跃增阈值(曲线)

    Fig. 7  The lightning flash rate of the hail-producing cell of the multi-cell system and total flash rates(the columns) and jump thresholds(the pink curves) derived by 2σ algorithm and Gatlin algorithm

    图  8  2015年8月7日北京飑线过程的雷达组合反射率因子

    (黑色六角形为降雹点,数字代表降雹顺序)

    Fig. 8  Radar composite reflectivity of a squall line across Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

    (the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the number in each subgraph indicates the sequence of the hailfall events)

    图  9  飑线过程强对流单体识别结果

    (黑色六角形为降雹点,数字代表降雹顺序)

    Fig. 9  Identification results of every strong convection cells during the squall line process

    (the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the number indicates the sequence of the hailfall events)

    图  10  飑线降雹单体内的闪电频数变化和两种算法总闪频数变化率(柱状)和闪电跃增阈值(曲线)

    Fig. 10  The lightning flash rate of the haill-producing cell of the squall line system and total flash rates(the columns) and jump thresholds(the pink curves) derived by 2σ algorithm and Gatlin algorithm

    表  1  2015年8月7日北京飑线过程的2σ算法闪电跃增信息

    Table  1  The lightning jump information of 2σ algorithm for a squall line process in Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

    跃增时刻 降雹时刻 与首次跃增时刻相比得到的预警提前时间/min
    16:42,16:48 17:40—17:41 58
    17:10,17:16,17:26,17:28,17:40 18:00—18:06 50
    18:28 18:50—18:53 22
    18:28,18:30,18:52 19:15—19:20 47
    18:28,18:30,18:52 19:16—19:17 48
    19:58—20:01 漏报
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2015年8月7日北京界飑线过程的Gatlin算法闪电跃增信息

    Table  2  The lightning jump information of Gatlin algorithm for a squall line process in Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

    跃增时刻 降雹时刻 与首次跃增时刻相比得到的预警提前时间/min
    16:42,16:48,16:54 17:40—17:41 58
    17:00,17:06,17:10,17:16,17:26,17:28,17:34,17:40,17:42 18:00—18:06 60
    18:28,18:30,18:32,18:52 18:50—18:53 22
    18:56,19:16 19:15—19:20 19
    18:56,19:16 19:16—19:17 20
    19:28,19:36 19:58—20:01 30
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-29
  • 修回日期:  2020-12-23
  • 刊出日期:  2021-03-31

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