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温室气体对亚洲夏季风影响的数值研究

彭艳玉 刘煜 缪育聪

彭艳玉, 刘煜, 缪育聪. 温室气体对亚洲夏季风影响的数值研究. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209
引用本文: 彭艳玉, 刘煜, 缪育聪. 温室气体对亚洲夏季风影响的数值研究. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209
Peng Yanyu, Liu Yu, Miao Yucong. A numerical study on impacts of greenhouse gases on asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210209
Citation: Peng Yanyu, Liu Yu, Miao Yucong. A numerical study on impacts of greenhouse gases on asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210209

温室气体对亚洲夏季风影响的数值研究

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2017YFA0603501

国家自然科学基金项目 41805126

详细信息
    通信作者:

    刘煜, yuliu@cma.gov.cn

A numerical study on impacts of greenhouse gases on asian summer monsoon

  • 摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料检验全球气候模式CAM5.1模拟亚洲夏季风的能力,CAM5.1模式能够较好再现亚洲夏季风的基本特征。通过工业革命前(1850年)、工业革命后(2000年)温室气体排放情景的敏感性试验探讨近现代温室气体增加对亚洲夏季风的影响机制。结果显示:温室气体增加导致亚洲大部分区域地面气温增加,印度半岛中部、中南半岛和中国东部地区夏季风增强,印度半岛中部及北部、中南半岛中北部和中国东部地区夏季降水增加。分析大气能量收支和转换发现,温室气体增加通过增强大气对流凝结潜热释放的方式加强大气热源;夏季陆地为暖区,不均匀加热引起全位能增加,从而增强全位能向辐散风动能的转换和辐散风动能向无辐散风动能的转换,最终导致这些区域夏季风增强。其中,对流凝结潜热增加是温室气体增加造成大气稳定度降低、对流活动加强、对流云厚度加大、对流降水增加的结果;同时,对流降水增加是总降水增加的主要原因。
  • 图  1  试验TB与试验TC夏季不同要素差值

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
    (a)地面大气温度场,(b)850 hPa风场,(c)850 hPa无辐散风风场,(d)降水

    Fig. 1  Difference in different elements between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)surface air temperature, (b)wind field at 850 hPa, (c)rotational wind at 850 hPa,(d)precipitation

    图  2  试验TB与试验TC夏季大气热源差值

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)

    Fig. 2  Difference in atmospheric heat source between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)

    图  3  试验TB与试验TC夏季4种热源差值

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
    (a)长波辐射加热率,(b)短波辐射加热率,(c)凝结潜热加热率,(d)地表感热通量输送

    Fig. 3  Difference in 4 heat sources between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)long-wave heating rate, (b)short-wave heating rate, (c)condensational latent heating rate,(d)surface sensible heating rate

    图  4  试验TB与试验TC夏季凝结潜热加热率差值

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
    (a)对流过程,(b)大尺度过程

    Fig. 4  Difference in condensation latent heating rate between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level) (a)convective process, (b)large-scale process

    图  5  试验TB与试验TC夏季对流云厚度差值

    Fig. 5  Difference in convective cloud depth between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    图  6  试验TB与试验TC夏季115°E垂直剖面上不同要素差值

    (a)温度,(b)大气加热率

    Fig. 6  Difference in different elements on vertical cross section of 115°E between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (a)temperature,(b)atmospheric heating rate

    图  7  夏季850 hPa全位能向辐散风动能转换项

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
    (a)试验TB,(b)试验TB与试验TC的差值

    Fig. 7  The conversion term of total potential energy to divergent wind at 850 hPa in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC

    图  8  夏季850 hPa辐散风动能向无辐散风动能转换项

    (打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
    (a)试验TB,(b)试验TB与试验TC的差值

    Fig. 8  The conversion term of divergent wind to rotational wind at 850 hPa in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC

    表  1  数值试验设计

    Table  1  Numerical experiment designs

    试验 温室气体排放情景 气溶胶排放情景
    TA 2000年 2000年
    TB 2000年 1850年
    TC 1850年 1850年
    下载: 导出CSV
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    Shi W L, Min J Z, Fei J F, et al. Analysis of characteristics of convective precipitation under global warming and its impact factors. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(1): 32-42. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH201301005.htm
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-11-05
  • 修回日期:  2020-12-27
  • 刊出日期:  2021-03-31

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