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A Numerical Study on Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on Asian Summer Monsoon
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摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料检验全球气候模式CAM5.1模拟亚洲夏季风的能力，CAM5.1模式能够较好再现亚洲夏季风的基本特征。通过工业革命前（1850年）、工业革命后（2000年）温室气体排放情景的敏感性试验探讨近现代温室气体增加对亚洲夏季风的影响机制。结果显示：温室气体增加导致亚洲大部分区域地面气温增加，印度半岛中部、中南半岛和中国东部地区夏季风增强，印度半岛中部及北部、中南半岛中北部和中国东部地区夏季降水增加。分析大气能量收支和转换发现，温室气体增加通过增强大气对流凝结潜热释放的方式加强大气热源；夏季陆地为暖区，不均匀加热引起全位能增加，从而增强全位能向辐散风动能的转换和辐散风动能向无辐散风动能的转换，最终导致这些区域夏季风增强。其中，对流凝结潜热增加是温室气体增加造成大气稳定度降低、对流活动加强、对流云厚度加大、对流降水增加的结果；同时，对流降水增加是总降水增加的主要原因。Abstract: The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased continuously since industrial revolution and significantly impacted the global climate, of which global warming is the most direct and prominent manifestation. The Community Atmosphere Model V5.1 (CAM5.1) is examined and used to simulate multiple meteorological elements of Asian summer monsoon using the reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research), and the results show that it could reproduce the main features of Asian summer monsoon well. Sensitivity experiments are then carried out to study the response mechanism of Asian summer monsoon to greenhouse gas increase in terms of energy transformation, which adopt greenhouse gases emission scenarios of 2000 and 1850 respectively. The models are run for 20 years from 1991 to 2010, and the results of the latter 10 years in summer (June to August) are analyzed.With increasing greenhouse gases concentration, the surface air temperature in the Asian continent is mostly increasing, except for the Arabian Peninsula and northwestern Indian Peninsula. The monsoon is strengthened in central Indian Peninsula, Indo-China Peninsula and eastern China. In addition, monsoon precipitation increases in the central and northern Indian Peninsula, northern and central Indo-China Peninsula, and eastern China, while decreases in southern Indian Peninsula, southern Tibetan plateau, central and western China, the Philippines and Japan. Correlation analysis of atmospheric energy budget and conversion shows that increased greenhouse gases concentration enhances the atmospheric heat sources by means of increasing the convective condensational latent heat. The increase in atmospheric heat sources results in an increase of full potential energy. Thus, there are positive transformations of full potential energy to kinetic energy of divergent wind, and the transformation of kinetic energy from divergent wind to non-divergent wind also increases, which ultimately enhances the summer monsoon over central Indian Peninsula, Indo-China Peninsula and eastern China. Further analysis shows that the increase of convective condensational latent heat is the result of the decrease of atmospheric stability, the enhancement of convective activity, the increase of cloud thickness and the increase of convective precipitation caused by the increase of greenhouse gases concentration. Meanwhile, the increase of convective precipitation is the main cause for the increase of total precipitation.
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图 1 试验TB与试验TC夏季不同要素差值
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
(a)地面大气温度场，(b)850 hPa风场，(c)850 hPa无辐散风风场，(d)降水Fig. 1 Difference in different elements between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
(a)surface air temperature, (b)wind field at 850 hPa, (c)rotational wind at 850 hPa,(d)precipitation
图 2 试验TB与试验TC夏季大气热源差值
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
Fig. 2 Difference in atmospheric heat source between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
图 3 试验TB与试验TC夏季4种热源差值
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
(a)长波辐射加热率，(b)短波辐射加热率，(c)凝结潜热加热率，(d)地表感热通量输送Fig. 3 Difference in 4 heat sources between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
(a)long-wave heating rate, (b)short-wave heating rate, (c)condensational latent heating rate,(d)surface sensible heating rate
图 4 试验TB与试验TC夏季凝结潜热加热率差值
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
(a)对流过程，(b)大尺度过程Fig. 4 Difference in condensation latent heating rate between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level) (a)convective process, (b)large-scale process
图 5 试验TB与试验TC夏季对流云厚度差值
Fig. 5 Difference in convective cloud depth between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
图 6 试验TB与试验TC夏季115°E垂直剖面上不同要素差值
(a)温度，(b)大气加热率
Fig. 6 Difference in different elements on vertical cross section of 115°E between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer
(a)temperature,(b)atmospheric heating rate
图 7 夏季850 hPa全位能向辐散风动能转换项
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
(a)试验TB，(b)试验TB与试验TC的差值Fig. 7 The conversion term of total potential energy to divergent wind at 850 hPa in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
(a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC
图 8 夏季850 hPa辐散风动能向无辐散风动能转换项
(打点区域表示达到0.005显著性水平)
(a)试验TB，(b)试验TB与试验TC的差值Fig. 8 The conversion term of divergent wind to rotational wind at 850 hPa in summer
(the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
(a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC表 1 数值试验设计
Table 1 Numerical experiment designs
试验 温室气体排放情景 气溶胶排放情景 TA 2000年 2000年 TB 2000年 1850年 TC 1850年 1850年 
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