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基于气候适宜度的南方柑橘种植精细化气候区划

刘聪 李凯伟 张继权 杨月婷 魏思成 王春乙

刘聪, 李凯伟, 张继权, 等. 基于气候适宜度的南方柑橘种植精细化气候区划. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(4): 421-431. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210404..
引用本文: 刘聪, 李凯伟, 张继权, 等. 基于气候适宜度的南方柑橘种植精细化气候区划. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(4): 421-431. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210404.
Liu Cong, Li Kaiwei, Zhang Jiquan, et al. Refined climatic zoning for citrus cultivation in southern China based on climate suitability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(4): 421-431. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210404.
Citation: Liu Cong, Li Kaiwei, Zhang Jiquan, et al. Refined climatic zoning for citrus cultivation in southern China based on climate suitability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(4): 421-431. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210404.

基于气候适宜度的南方柑橘种植精细化气候区划

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210404
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2019YFD1002201

国家自然科学基金项目 41877520

吉林省科技攻关项目 20190303018SF

长春市重大科技攻关项目 19SS007

详细信息
    通信作者:

    张继权, 邮箱: zhangjq022@nenu.edu.cn

Refined Climatic Zoning for Citrus Cultivation in Southern China Based on Climate Suitability

  • 摘要: 为探究气候变化对南方柑橘种植气候适宜性的影响,基于气候适宜度函数建立柑橘发育期温度、降水、日照以及综合适宜度模型,对南方柑橘种植区近60年(1960—2019年)361个气象站观测数据进行精细化插值(Anusplin插值)并计算气候适宜度,采用自然断点法分4个等级对柑橘种植区进行气候区划,并分前、后30年对比分析研究区气候资源及适宜度的空间变化特征。结果表明:与前30年相比,后30年的温度适宜度并未出现较大变化,降水适宜度低值区有所扩大,日照适宜度低值区有所减小;柑橘最适宜种植区主要集中于四川东部、云南南部、重庆西北部、广西、湖北大部分区域;最适宜种植区面积减小约29%,不适宜种植区面积扩大约34%。经高温热害及低温冻害概率空间分布验证,区划结果的准确性较高,可以用于指导和优化柑橘种植及生产实践。
  • 图  1  研究区气象站分布

    Fig. 1  Distribution of meteorological stations in target area

    图  2  1960—2019年柑橘研究区日照、降水及热量资源分布

    Fig. 2  Distribution of light, precipitation and heat resources for citrus in target area from 1960 to 2019

    图  3  1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区温度适宜度空间分布

    Fig. 3  Distribution of temperature suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019

    图  4  1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区降水适宜度空间分布

    Fig. 4  Distribution of rainfall suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019

    图  5  1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区日照适宜度空间分布

    Fig. 5  Distribution of sunshine suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019

    图  6  1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区气候区划

    Fig. 6  Climatic division for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019

    图  7  1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区高温热害概率分布

    Fig. 7  Probability distribution of high temperature heat damage for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019

    图  8  1960—2019年柑橘研究区冻害概率分布

    Fig. 8  Probability distribution of freezing injury for citrus in target area during 1960-2019

    表  1  南方柑橘种植区各发育期时间和温度指标[1, 12, 17, 20]

    Table  1  Growth stages and temperature indexes in southern citrus growing area (from Reference [1, 12, 17, 20])

    发育期 时段 下限温度tl/℃ 适宜温度t0/℃ 上限温度th/℃ 作物系数Kc
    发芽期 02-15—04-10 8.1 14.0 26.0 0.48
    花期 04-15—05-10 11.8 20.0 30.0 0.65
    生理落果期 05-15—06-15 13.0 21.0 30.0 0.76
    果实生长发育期 06-20—10-01 13.0 22.0 34.0 0.95
    果实成熟期 10-05—11-10 13.0 21.0 27.0 0.70
    花芽分化期 11-20—02-10 -5.0 12.5 23.0 0.39
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  高温热害等级划分[35]

    Table  2  Classification of high temperature heat damage (from Reference [35])

    等级 日最高气温(Tc)及持续时间
    轻度 Tc≥37℃持续3~4 d
    中度 Tc≥37℃持续5~6 d
    重度 Tc≥37℃持续7 d及以上
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  气象因子级别划分[36]

    Table  3  Classification of meteorological factors (from Reference [36])

    级别 越冬期极端最低气温Td/℃ 越冬期最长持续降水日数Dr/d 越冬期日最低气温不高于-1.5℃最长持续日数Dc/d
    0级 Td>-3 Dr < 2 Dc < 2
    1级 -5 < Td≤-3 2≤Dr < 5 2≤Dc < 4
    2级 -7 < Td≤-5 5≤Dr < 10 4≤Dc < 6
    3级 -9 < Td≤-7 10≤Dr < 15 6≤Dc < 8
    4级 -11 < Td≤-9 15≤Dr < 20 8≤Dc < 10
    5级 Td≤-11 Dr≥20 Dc≥10
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  低温冻害等级划分

    Table  4  Classification of low temperature freezing damage

    等级 冻害指数I
    轻度 6≤I < 11
    中度 11≤I < 16
    偏重度 16≤I < 21
    严重度 21≤I < 26
    特重度 I≥26
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-01
  • 修回日期:  2021-06-10
  • 刊出日期:  2021-07-31

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