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东北地区大豆冷害指标构建及变化特征

李海楠 朱丽杰 李明倩 姜丽霞 任传友 高西宁

李海楠, 朱丽杰, 李明倩, 等. 东北地区大豆冷害指标构建及变化特征. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(4): 491-503. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210410..
引用本文: 李海楠, 朱丽杰, 李明倩, 等. 东北地区大豆冷害指标构建及变化特征. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(4): 491-503. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210410.
Li Hainan, Zhu Lijie, Li Mingqian, et al. Construction of soybean chilling damage indicator and its evolution characteristics in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(4): 491-503. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210410.
Citation: Li Hainan, Zhu Lijie, Li Mingqian, et al. Construction of soybean chilling damage indicator and its evolution characteristics in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(4): 491-503. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210410.

东北地区大豆冷害指标构建及变化特征

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210410
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2019YFD1002204

详细信息
    通信作者:

    高西宁, 邮箱: syaugxn@syau.edu.cn

Construction of Soybean Chilling Damage Indicator and Its Evolution Characteristics in Northeast China

  • 摘要: 冷害是东北地区大豆减产的主要原因之一,冷害指标是冷害监测预警的重要依据。以东北地区大豆为研究对象,基于1971—2020年气象站点逐日平均气温数据、1992—2020年农业气象站大豆发育期数据和历史灾情数据,以热量指数为冷害指标,构建大豆灾害样本序列,利用Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)分布拟合检验获得冷害指标的概率分布,通过t分布区间估计方法确定指标等级阈值,并进行验证。在此基础上,讨论冷害时空变化特征。结果表明:冷害等级与冷害指标完全匹配率达84.4%,该指标等级阈值可以较好反映东北地区大豆冷害发生情况;在相同冷害等级下,大豆三真叶-开花-结荚阶段冷害等级阈值较高,播种-出苗-三真叶阶段相对较低;20世纪70年代的冷害频次最高,1993年前后发生突变,之后呈下降趋势;黑龙江省最北部及吉林省东南部为冷害高发地区,以此为中心冷害频次向四周递减;随年代际变化,冷害频次高值区逐渐缩小,低值区逐渐北伸扩大。
  • 图  1  研究区域气象站与农业气象站分布

    Fig. 1  Distribution of meteorological stations and agro-meteorological stations in the taget region

    图  2  1971—2020年东北地区大豆全生育期内冷害次数

    Fig. 2  Chilling damage frequency during the whole growth period of soybean in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020

    图  3  1971—2020年东北地区大豆各发育阶段不同等级冷害及总冷害次数

    Fig. 3  Chilling damage frequency in different growth stages of soybean with total chilling damage frequency in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020

    图  4  1971—2020年东北地区大豆全生育期冷害次数M-K统计量曲线

    Fig. 4  M-K statistic curves of chilling damage frequency during the whole growth period of soybean in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020

    图  5  1971—2020年东北地区大豆全生育期和不同发育阶段冷害频次分布

    Fig. 5  Distribution of chilling damage frequency in the whole growth period and different growth stages of soybean in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020

    图  6  1971—2020年东北地区大豆全生育期冷害频次年代际变化

    Fig. 6  Decadal variation of chilling damage frequency in the whole growth period of soybean in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020

    表  1  大豆各发育阶段不同冷害等级下样本量

    Table  1  Sample size in different growth stages of soybean with different levels of chilling damage

    发育阶段 轻度 中度 重度
    指标构建 指标检验 指标构建 指标检验 指标构建 指标检验
    播种-出苗 22 5 19 3 5 1
    出苗-三真叶 13 2 19 3 14 3
    三真叶-开花 9 2 11 2 5 1
    开花-结荚 5 1 4 1 7 1
    结荚-成熟 20 4 14 2 4 1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  大豆各发育阶段的三基点温度

    Table  2  Three physiological temperatures in different growth stages of soybean

    发育阶段 适宜温度/℃ 下限温度/℃ 上限温度/℃
    播种-出苗 15.0 7.5 26.0
    出苗-三真叶 19.0 10.0 30.0
    三真叶-开花 22.0 13.0 32.0
    开花-结荚 24.0 16.0 32.0
    结荚-成熟 21.0 11.0 28.0
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  3种函数对大豆热量指数样本序列拟合的K-S检验结果

    Table  3  K-S test for results of 3 functions for fitting heat index samples of soybean

    发育阶段 冷害等级 显著性检验
    正态分布 均匀分布 指数分布
    轻度 0.739 0.144 0.000
    播种-出苗 中度 0.708 0.043 0.001
    重度 0.999 0.438 0.195
    轻度 0.964 0.319 0.000
    出苗-三真叶 中度 0.855 0.033 0.001
    重度 0.875 0.679 0.025
    轻度 0.981 0.259 0.001
    三真叶-开花 中度 0.899 0.024 0.016
    重度 0.999 0.219 0.000
    轻度 0.971 0.875 0.084
    开花-结荚 中度 0.972 0.455 0.094
    重度 0.989 0.106 0.008
    轻度 0.750 0.002 0.000
    结荚-成熟 中度 0.781 0.151 0.004
    重度 0.982 0.718 0.000
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  基于热量指数的东北地区大豆不同发育阶段冷害等级指标

    Table  4  Chilling damage level indicators in different growth stages of soybean in Northeast China based on heat index

    发育阶段 重度冷害 中度冷害 轻度冷害 无冷害
    播种-出苗 (0,58.0] (58.0,65.5] (65.5,71.0] (71.0,100]
    出苗-三真叶 (0,59.5] (59.5,67.5] (67.5,73.5] (73.5,100]
    三真叶-开花 (0,63.0] (63.0,68.0] (68.0,75.5] (75.5,100]
    开花-结荚 (0,63.5] (63.5,69.5] (69.5,78.0] (78.0,100]
    结荚-成熟 (0,62.5] (62.5,68.0] (68.0,75.5] (75.5,100]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  大豆冷害指标的验证准确率(单位:%)

    Table  5  Verification accuracy for chilling damage indicator of soybean (unit: %)

    发育阶段 轻度 中度 重度 总冷害
    播种-出苗 80.0 66.7 100.0 77.8
    出苗-三真叶 100.0 100.0 66.7 87.5
    三真叶-开花 100.0 50.0 100.0 80.0
    开花-结荚 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    结荚-成熟 75.0 100.0 100.0 85.7
    全生育期 85.7 81.8 85.7 84.4
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-02
  • 修回日期:  2021-06-03
  • 刊出日期:  2021-07-31

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