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基于CMIP6的西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险未来预估

黄晓远 李谢辉

黄晓远, 李谢辉. 基于CMIP6的西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险未来预估. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220209..
引用本文: 黄晓远, 李谢辉. 基于CMIP6的西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险未来预估. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.
Huang Xiaoyuan, Li Xiehui. Future projection of rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China based on CMIP6 models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.
Citation: Huang Xiaoyuan, Li Xiehui. Future projection of rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China based on CMIP6 models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.

基于CMIP6的西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险未来预估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220209
资助项目: 

科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目 2019QZKK0105

云南省重点研发计划项目 202103AC100028

详细信息
    通信作者:

    李谢辉, 邮箱: lixiehui325328@163.com

Future Projection of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk in Southwest China Based on CMIP6 Models

  • 摘要: 为预估全球变暖背景下中国西南地区未来暴雨洪涝灾害风险的变化特征,研究挑选5个CMIP6模式和5个极端降水指数,结合地形因子、社会经济数据和耕地面积百分比,构建暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型,对西南暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行基准期(1995—2014年)评估、未来两个时期(2021—2040年,2041—2060年)3种情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)下的预估和对比分析。结果表明:EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg两个单模式对5个极端降水指数的模拟效果较好,不等权重集合(UEWA-5)的效果整体优于等权重集合(EWA-5)。西南地区5个极端降水指数的高值区位于云南西部、广西东北部以及四川盆地西缘,社会脆弱性和辐射强迫越高,极端降水指数平均值和最大值越大; 从基准期到未来两个时期,5个极端降水指数均呈增大趋势。未来暴雨洪涝灾害的中高风险区和高风险区主要分布在四川成都市、重庆中心和四川盆地西部、云南昆明市、广西中南部和桂林市等局部较发达地区; 未来两个时期SSP2-4.5情景下的中高风险区和高风险区面积最大; 从基准期到未来远期,中高风险区和高风险区面积将随着时间增长而增加。
  • 图  1  研究区地理位置和地形高度

    Fig. 1  Location and topography of the target area

    图  2  1995—2014年西南地区5个CMIP6模式(a)和多模式集合(b)各极端降水指数泰勒图

    Fig. 2  Taylor diagrams of extreme precipitation indices for 5 CMIP6 models(a) and model ensembles(b) in Southwest China during 1995-2014

    图  3  1995—2014年西南地区标准化的5个极端降水指数

    Fig. 3  Standardized series of 5 extreme precipitation indices in Southwest China during 1995-2014

    图  4  未来两个时期3种情景下西南地区5个极端降水指数时间序列

    Fig. 4  Time series of 5 extreme precipitation indices in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

    图  5  基准期和未来两个时期3种情景下西南地区R50空间分布

    Fig. 5  Spatial distribution of R50 in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during the base period and 2 future periods

    图  6  未来两个时期3种情景下西南地区暴雨洪涝致灾危险性空间分布

    Fig. 6  Spatial distribution of disaster risk caused by rainstorm and flood in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

    图  7  未来两个时期3种情景下西南地区承灾体易损度空间分布

    Fig. 7  Spatial distribution of vulnerability of disaster-bearing body in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

    图  8  基准期和未来两个时期3种情景下西南地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险空间分布

    Fig. 8  Spatial distribution of integrated risk of rainstorm and flood disaster in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during the base period and 2 future periods

    表  1  CMIP6中5个模式基本信息

    Table  1  Information of 5 models in CMIP6

    模式名称 国家和地区 机构 格点数
    BCC-CSM2-MR 中国 BCC 160×320
    EC-Earth3 欧洲 EC 256×512
    EC-Earth3-Veg 欧洲 EC 256×512
    GFDL-ESM4 美国 NOAA-GFDL 180×288
    MPI-ESM1-2-HR 德国 MPI-M 192×384
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  5个极端降水指数的定义

    Table  2  Definitions of 5 extreme precipitation indices

    指数 英文缩写 定义 单位
    大雨日数 R20 日降水量不小于20 mm的日数 d
    暴雨日数 R50 日降水量不小于50 mm的日数 d
    5 d最大降水量 RX5day 最大连续5 d降水量 mm
    年降水量 PRCPTOT 年降水量 mm
    降水强度 SDII 湿日总降水量/湿日日数 mm·d-1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  5个CMIP6模式的S值排名

    Table  3  Ranking of S-value for 5 models in CMIP6

    模式 5个极端降水指数S值排名 综合排名
    R20 R50 RX5day PRCPTOT SDII
    BCC-CSM2-MR 3 3 4 3 4 3
    EC-Earth3 2 2 2 2 2 2
    EC-Earth3-Veg 1 1 1 1 1 1
    GFDL-ESM4 4 4 5 5 3 4
    MPI-ESM1-2-HR 5 5 3 4 5 5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  西南地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险区面积占比(单位:%)

    Table  4  Area proportion of comprehensive risk zone of rainstorm and flood disaster in Southwest China (unit: %)

    情景 时期 暴雨洪涝灾害风险等级
    基准期 25.85 53.68 13.59 5.85 1.02
    SSP1-2.6 近期 22.70 54.26 14.97 6.99 1.08
    远期 22.50 54.28 14.46 7.46 1.29
    SSP2-4.5 近期 21.61 55.12 14.02 8.02 1.24
    远期 21.46 53.16 14.58 8.92 1.88
    SSP5-8.5 近期 22.04 54.60 14.38 7.81 1.17
    远期 21.36 53.42 14.75 8.73 1.73
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-27
  • 修回日期:  2022-01-21
  • 刊出日期:  2022-03-31

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