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机器学习分类算法在降雨型滑坡预报中的应用

刘海知 徐辉 包红军 徐为 闫旭峰 鲁恒 徐成鹏

刘海知, 徐辉, 包红军, 等. 机器学习分类算法在降雨型滑坡预报中的应用. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(3): 282-292. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220303..
引用本文: 刘海知, 徐辉, 包红军, 等. 机器学习分类算法在降雨型滑坡预报中的应用. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(3): 282-292. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220303.
Liu Haizhi, Xu Hui, Bao Hongjun, et al. Application of Machine Learning Classification Algorithm to Precipitation-induced Landslides Forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 282-292. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220303.
Citation: Liu Haizhi, Xu Hui, Bao Hongjun, et al. Application of Machine Learning Classification Algorithm to Precipitation-induced Landslides Forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 282-292. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220303.

机器学习分类算法在降雨型滑坡预报中的应用

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220303
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2019YFC1510702

国家气象中心预报员专项课题 Y202105

详细信息
    通信作者:

    徐辉,邮箱:xuhui@cma.gov.cn

Application of Machine Learning Classification Algorithm to Precipitation-induced Landslides Forecasting

  • 摘要: 针对气象灾害预警业务中客观描述降雨型滑坡发生不确定性的实际需求,利用2014—2020年全国滑坡数据以及多源融合降水实况分析数据,通过样本构建、模型训练、参数优化以及预报输出等关键步骤构建基于机器学习分类算法的区域降雨诱发滑坡概率预报模型,探究不同类型机器学习分类算法识别诱发滑坡的降雨过程的可行性。结果表明:在算法评估中,线性判别分析算法准确率最高且泛化能力最好,其次为逻辑回归算法,再次为最邻近算法。在预报试验中,线性判别分析、逻辑回归以及最邻近等算法能够提取并学习降雨诱发滑坡的条件特征,对诱发滑坡的降雨过程有一定识别能力,最邻近算法和逻辑回归算法的概率预报高值区范围相对较大,易造成虚警结果,线性判别分析算法对局地降雨信息的提炼较好,但线性判别分析算法在非降雨中心区域输出低值概率预报的面积偏大。
  • 图  1  2014—2020年滑坡灾点分布

    Fig. 1  Distribution of landslides in 2014-2020

    图  2  下垫面类型

    Fig. 2  Underlying surface type

    图  3  滑坡易发程度

    Fig. 3  Landslides susceptibility

    图  4  降雨临界阈值模型

    Fig. 4  Rainfall critical threshold model

    图  5  2021年5月21日20:00概率预报结果

    Fig. 5  Probability forecast results at 2000 BT 21 May 2021

    图  6  2021年10月4日20:00概率预报结果

    Fig. 6  Probability forecast results at 2000 BT 4 Oct 2021

    表  1  模型算法测试结果

    Table  1  Model algorithms test results

    模型算法 ACC AUC
    线性判别分析 0.863 0.886
    最邻近 0.838 0.858
    逻辑回归 0.840 0.879
    随机森林 0.834 0.849
    支持向量机 0.821 0.819
    决策树 0.832 0.841
    临界阈值 0.658 0.693
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  降雨诱发滑坡个例

    Table  2  Cases of rainfall-induced landslides

    编号 发生时间 发生位置 阈值模型预报
    个例1 2021-05-22T04:00 福建省宁德市国道104线福安路段(27.0°N,119.7°E) 未发生滑坡
    个例2 2021-07-26T10:00 浙江省绍兴市柯桥区平水镇下灶村(29.9°N,120.7°E) 发生滑坡
    个例3 2021-08-29T14:00 重庆市开州区关面乡关面社区(31.6°N,108.9°E) 发生滑坡
    个例4 2021-09-05T16:00 四川省巴中市通江县空山镇五福村(32.5°N,107.4°E) 发生滑坡
    个例5 2021-10-05T23:00 山西省临汾市蒲县蒲城镇荆坡村(36.4°N,111.1°E) 未发生滑坡
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-01-25
  • 修回日期:  2022-03-28
  • 刊出日期:  2022-05-31

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