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福建热带气旋灾害精细化危险性评估

庄瑶 鲍瑞娟 张容焱 高诗妍 潘航 陈思 林昕

庄瑶, 鲍瑞娟, 张容焱, 等. 福建热带气旋灾害精细化危险性评估. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220306..
引用本文: 庄瑶, 鲍瑞娟, 张容焱, 等. 福建热带气旋灾害精细化危险性评估. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.
Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.
Citation: Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.

福建热带气旋灾害精细化危险性评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2018YFB1501104

详细信息
    通信作者:

    张容焱,邮箱:fzzry@163.com

Refined Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Fujian

  • 摘要: 根据1981—2021年福建省热带气旋风雨资料,采用极差标准化、相关系数客观赋权法和自然断点法建立热带气旋致灾因子危险性评估模型,评估结果表明:选择降水7个因子和大风4个因子作为评估指标体系合理;雨高危险性区域位于沿海,南平和三明地区雨危险性较低;风较高危险性区域明显窄于雨较高危险性区域,危险性等级向内陆降低远快于降水,其中罗源湾至崇武沿海因受台湾岛地形屏障保护,危险性比沿海南北部小1个等级;风雨综合致灾危险性,沿海县市皆为较高危险性区域,其中中部沿海高危险性区域小,沿海南北部大,另外登陆粤东热带气旋沿海北上滞留在闽西上空的低压云团造成闽西北部存在较高危险性区域;在热带气旋登陆影响过程中,精细化致灾因子危险性评估更具有针对性,且与灾情相符,为气象灾害决策服务提供了更有价值的参考信息。
  • 图  1  福建省热带气旋警戒区

    Fig. 1  Tropical cyclone warning zone for Fujian

    图  2  雨、风和风雨综合危险性分布

    Fig. 2  Risk distribution of rain induced, wind induced, wind and rain induced

    图  3  热带气旋玛莉亚致灾因子危险性分布

    Fig. 3  Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Maria

    图  4  雨灾型热带气旋致灾因子危险性分布

    Fig. 4  Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclones with rain disasters

    图  5  风灾型热带气旋桑美致灾因子危险性分布

    Fig. 5  Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Saomai with wind disaster

    图  6  风雨并重型热带气旋致灾因子危险性分布

    Fig. 6  Risk distribution of disaster factors for tropical cyclones with both wind and rain

    表  1  热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性评估指标体系

    Table  1  Risk assessment index system of tropical cyclone disaster-causing factors

    等级 降水因子 大风因子
    第1级 雨危险性 风危险性
    第2级(气象要素) 降水 风速
    第3级(因子) 过程日最大降水量(单站), 过程累积最大降水量(单站), 过程1 h最大降水量, 过程3 h最大降水量, 过程暴雨站日数, 过程大暴雨站日数, 过程特大暴雨站日数 过程日最大风速(单站), 过程日极大风速(单站), 过程最大风速不低于8级站日数, 过程极大风速不低于12级站日数
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  县级尺度热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性等级

    Table  2  Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropical cyclone disaster at county level

    等级 含义 降水因子 大风因子 风雨综合因子
    1 低危险 0~0.2060 0~0.0995 0~0.1255
    2 较低危险 0.2061~0.2967 0.0996~0.1954 0.1256~0.2158
    3 中等危险 0.2968~0.4017 0.1955~0.2853 0.2159~0.3209
    4 较高危险 0.4018~0.5230 0.2854~0.4495 0.3210~0.4490
    5 高危险 0.5231~1 0.4496~1 0.4491~1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  乡镇级尺度热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性等级

    Table  3  Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropial cyclone disaster at township level

    等级 含义 降水因子 大风因子 风雨综合因子
    1 低危险 0~0.2252 0~0.2124 0~0.1051
    2 较低危险 0.2253~0.3206 0.2125~0.2767 0.1052~0.2041
    3 中等危险 0.3207~0.4312 0.2768~0.3300 0.2042~0.2917
    4 较高危险 0.4313~0.5413 0.3301~0.4039 0.2918~0.4078
    5 高危险 0.5414~1 0.4040~1 0.4079~1
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-23
  • 修回日期:  2022-02-25
  • 刊出日期:  2022-05-31

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