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2021年2月北美极端低温暴雪的卫星遥感监测

任素玲 牛宁 覃丹宇 杨冰韵 徐榕焓 咸迪

任素玲, 牛宁, 覃丹宇, 等. 2021年2月北美极端低温暴雪的卫星遥感监测. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(6): 696-710. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220605..
引用本文: 任素玲, 牛宁, 覃丹宇, 等. 2021年2月北美极端低温暴雪的卫星遥感监测. 应用气象学报, 2022, 33(6): 696-710. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220605.
Ren Suling, Niu Ning, Qin Danyu, et al. Extreme cold and snowstorm event in North America in February 2021 based on satellite data. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 696-710. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220605.
Citation: Ren Suling, Niu Ning, Qin Danyu, et al. Extreme cold and snowstorm event in North America in February 2021 based on satellite data. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 696-710. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220605.

2021年2月北美极端低温暴雪的卫星遥感监测

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220605
资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 42175014

国家重点研发计划 2021YFB3900400

详细信息
    通信作者:

    覃丹宇, 邮箱:qindy@cma.gov.cn

Extreme Cold and Snowstorm Event in North America in February 2021 Based on Satellite Data

  • 摘要: 利用气象卫星数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析数据,在开展卫星数据误差分析的基础上,研究2021年2月北美冬季风暴乌里发生的气候背景、发展演变、极涡活动对乌里的触发作用及造成极端低温和降雪的大气影响因子等。结果表明:与ERA5温度相比,FY-3D/VASS温度在北美地区100,400 hPa和850 hPa的平均绝对偏差分别为1.14℃,1.44℃和2.63℃,可满足冬季极端冷事件监测服务需求;2021年2月北美大陆冷空气活动关键区(50°~80°N,50°~150°W)西部温度较历史同期偏低4~8℃,2月上旬冷空气强度最强,温度距平百分比达70%;在东北太平洋暖高压脊引导下,极涡加强南下,极涡中心西侧横槽转竖过程中冷空气向南爆发,对流层中高层高位涡异常南伸为乌里的生成提供了高层动力强迫,低层冷空气南下和墨西哥湾沿副热带高压西侧向北输送的暖湿气流在美国南部交汇,触发了乌里低层低涡及云系的快速发展;造成强降雪的风暴乌里云系具有对流特征,冷锋云带和头部云顶亮温大部分低于-40℃,部分低于-52℃,闪电活跃。
  • 图  1  2021年2月北美区域(10°~85°N,50°~150°W)FY-3D/VASS温度和ERA5温度散点密度

    Fig. 1  Scatterplot density of FY-3D/VASS temperature against that of ERA5 temperature in North America(10°-85°N,50°-150°W) in Feb 2021

    图  2  2021年2月FY-3D/VASS相对于EAR5的温度平均偏差

    Fig. 2  Mean bias of FY-3D/VASS temperature against ERA5 temperature in Feb 2021

    图  3  2021年FY-3D/VASS 850 hPa平均温度和温度距平

    (a)2月平均温度距平, (b)2月1—7日平均温度,(c)2月1—7日平均温度距平

    Fig. 3  FY-3D/VASS average temperature and its anomaly at 850 hPa in 2021

    (a)average temperature anomaly in Feb, (b)average temperature from 1 Feb to 7 Feb, (c)average temperature anomaly from 1 Feb to 7 Feb

    图  4  2021年2月1—28日850 hPa区域平均温度时间序列

    (a)FY-3D/VASS区域平均温度(蓝线:50°~80°N, 50°~150°W;黑线:50°~80°N, 100°~150°W)和ERA5气候态区域平均温度(红线:50°~80°N,100°~150°W), (b)FY-3D/VASS区域平均(50°~80°N,100°~150°W)温度距平, (c)FY-3D/VASS区域平均(50°~80°N, 100°~150°W)温度距平百分比

    Fig. 4  Time series of regional average temperature at 850 hPa from 1 Feb to 28 Feb in 2021 )

    (a)regional average FY-3D/VASS temperature(blue line denotes region of 50°-80°N, 50°-150°W, black line denotes region of 50°-80°N, 100°-150°W) and climate regional ERA5 temperature(red line denotes region of 50°-80°N,100°-150°W), (b)regional average FY-3D/VASS temperature anomaly(50°-80°N,100°-150°W), (c)percentage of regional average FY-3D/VASS temperature anomaly(50°-80°N, 100°-150°W

    图  5  2021年2月13—16日FY-3D日平均云顶温度(填色)和ERA5 850 hPa高度场(等值线,单位:dagpm)

    (红点和红线分别表示风暴中心和移动路径)

    Fig. 5  Daily mean FY-3D cloud top temperature(the shaded) and ERA5 geopotential height(the contour, unit:dagpm) at 850 hPa from 13 Feb to 16 Feb in 2021

    (the red dot and line denote the storm center and moving path, respectively)

    图  6  2021年2月10,11,13—16日FY-3D/VASS 850 hPa日平均温度(填色) 和ERA5 500 hPa位势高度(等值线,单位:dagpm)

    Fig. 6  Daily mean FY-3D/VASS temperature(the shaded) at 850 hPa and ERA5 geopotential height (the contour, unit:dagpm) at 500 hPa on 10 Feb, 11 Feb, 13-16 Feb in 2021

    图  7  2021年2月10日和13日FY-3D/VASS 500 hPa温度(填色)、ERA5 500 hPa风场(矢量)和200 hPa位涡(等值线,单位:PVU)

    Fig. 7  FY-3D/VASS temperature(the shaded) at 500 hPa, ERA5 wind(the vector) at 500 hPa and potential vorticity(the isoline, unit:PVU) at 200 hPa on 10 Feb and 13 Feb in 2021

    图  8  2021年2月10日和13日FY-3D/VASS温度(填色)、ERA5纬向风(黑色等值线,单位:m·s-1) 和位涡(白色等值线,单位:PVU)沿105°W的垂直剖面

    Fig. 8  Vertical distribution of FY-3D/VASS temperature(the shaded), ERA5 zonal wind(the black isoline, unit:m·s-1) and potential vorticity(the white isoline, unit:PVU) along 105°W on 10 Feb and 13 Feb in 2021

    图  9  2021年2月13—16日GSMaP_Gauge 24 h降水量

    Fig. 9  GSMaP_Gauge precipitation in 24 h from 13 Feb to 16 Feb in 2021

    图  10  2021年2月850 hPa FY-3D/VASS比湿(填色,蓝色等值线为3 g·kg-1)和ERA5风场(矢量)

    Fig. 10  FY-3D/VASS specific humidity(the shaded, the blue isoline denotes 3 g·kg-1) and ERA5 wind(the vector) at 850 hPa in Feb 2021

    图  11  2021年2月静止气象卫星观测的对流和闪电

    (a)12—17日GridSat对流活动频率(填色为云顶亮温低于-32℃出现频率,蓝色等值线为云顶亮温低于-42℃出现频率(大于6%),单位:%), (b)15日21:00 GridSat云顶亮温, (c)14日00:00—17日00:00 GOES-R GLM闪电总次数, (d)15日20:00—22:00 GOES-R GLM闪电总次数

    Fig. 11  Convection and flash from geostationary meteorological satellites in 2021

    (a)convection frequency from GridSat from 12 Feb to 17 Feb(the shaded denotes frequency of cloud top brightness temperature lower than -32℃, the blue isoline denotes frequency of cloud top brightness temperature lower than -42℃(greater than 6%), unit:%), (b)the cloud top brightness temperature from GridSat at 2100 UTC 15 Feb, (c)total number of flash from GOES-R GLM from 14 Feb to 17 Feb, (d)total number of flash from GOES-R GLM from 2000 UTC to 2200 UTC on 15 Feb

    表  1  2021年2月北美区域(10°~85°N,50°~150°W)FY-3D/VASS温度精度

    Table  1  Accuracy of FY-3D/VASS temperature in North America(10°-85°N,50°-150°W) in Feb 2021

    气压层/hPa 样本量 相关系数 平均偏差/℃ 绝对偏差/℃ 均方根误差/℃
    100 7736865 0.98 0.17 1.14 1.71
    400 8863018 0.99 -0.22 1.44 1.94
    700 8858121 0.98 -0.21 1.92 2.66
    850 8475087 0.97 -0.48 2.63 3.56
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-08-05
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-15
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-11-21
  • 刊出日期:  2022-11-17

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