BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

张智超; 周放; 张浩鑫; 周辰光; 王欣

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20230103

BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230103

张智超^{1, 2},
周放^1, ,,
张浩鑫³,
周辰光³,
王欣¹

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044
2.
山西省运城市夏县气象局, 运城 044400
3.
中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081

资助项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41905062

详细信息

通信作者:
周放，邮箱：zhouf@nuist.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-08-06
- 修回日期: 2022-10-14
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-31

Predication of Typical Winter Circulation Systems Based on BCC_CSM1.1m Model

1.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, NUIST, Nanjing 210044
2.
Xia County Meteorological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Yuncheng 044400
3.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 基于国家气候中心气候系统模式1.1版本（BCC_CSM1.1m）的历史回报数据，利用时间相关系数和均方根误差等确定性技巧评分，对西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚冬季风3种东亚地区冬季典型环流系统的预报技巧进行检验评估，并通过时间序列分析和空间相关系数等方法，分析东亚地区冬季典型环流系统的可预报性来源。结果表明：由于模式对热带海洋和北太平洋海平面气压的预测偏差小、对欧亚大陆的预测偏差大，模式对阿留申低压、东亚冬季风的预测技巧高于西伯利亚高压。进一步分析表明：厄尔尼诺和南方涛动（ENSO）是阿留申低压和东亚冬季风的重要可预报性来源，而土壤温度是西伯利亚高压的重要可预报性来源，并受ENSO调制。此外，东亚冬季风的预报技巧也受到西伯利亚高压预报技巧的制约。
- BCC_CSM1.1m;
- 冬季典型环流系统;
- 可预报性;
- ENSO
Abstract: Accurate prediction of East Asian winter climate has become an important topic in climate research. Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model prediction systems have made great progress. It can offer overall outstanding performance, and become the major tool of dynamical climate prediction. The seasonal prediction performance of BCC_CSM1.1m model has been systematically evaluated. It's found that although the model can predict temperature, precipitation, snow cover, and Asian monsoon to some extent, there are still great challenges in the prediction of East Asian winter climate. It is important to analyze the possible causes of model biases and reveal the source of its predictability. Based on the hindcasts of BCC_CSM1.1m, time correlation coefficient and root mean square error are analyzed to evaluate the prediction skills of 3 typical East Asian winter circulation systems, including Siberian high (SH), Aleutian low (AL) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Then the predictability sources are also examined through time series analysis and pattern correlation coefficient. The results show that the prediction of sea level pressure in tropical region is better than that in the middle and high latitude region. Due to the influence of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its remote teleconnection, the sea level pressure prediction over the ocean is better than that over the continent, which results in better prediction skills of AL and EAWM compared to SH. Further analysis shows that the elimination of super El Niño years leads to lower prediction skills of AL and EAWM. The correlation between sea level pressure in Eurasia and ENSO is less than that in tropical and north Pacific regions, indicating that ENSO is an important source of predictability of AL and EAWM. It is also found that soil temperature at 0-10 cm in Siberia is an important factor affecting the simultaneous and later SH, which suggests that the predictability of the SH may come from the shallow soil temperature. After removing super El Niño years, the prediction skill of SH is altered greatly, which reflects the modulation of ENSO on SH prediction. The model can overestimate the linear relationship between SH and ENSO, and lead to a poor SH prediction skill. Moreover, the prediction of EAWM depends on the accurate prediction of SH and AL, and its prediction skill is restricted by the poor SH prediction skills to some extent.
- BCC_CSM1.1m;
- typical winter circulation systems;
- predictability;
- ENSO

HTML全文

图 1 BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的冬季SHI，ALI，EAWMI的预报技巧

(虚线和点划线分别表示0.05和0.01显著性水平)

Fig. 1 Prediction skills of SHI, ALI and EAWMI initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

(the dashed line and dotted line denote the levels of 0.05 and 0.01, respectively)

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图 2 BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至9月(LM0~LM3)起报的冬季海平面气压的TCC技巧

(红色、绿色和蓝色方框分别为SHI, ALI, EAWMI定义区域，黑色打点区域表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
(a)12月(LM0)起报，(b)11月(LM1)起报，(c)10月(LM2)起报，(d)9月(LM3)起报

Fig. 2 TCC skills in winter sea level pressure initiated from Dec to Sep(LM0-LM3) in BCC_CSM1.1m

(red, green, and blue boxes denote regions of SHI, ALI and EAWMI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
(a)Dec(LM0), (b)Nov(LM1), (c)Oct(LM2), (d)Sep(LM3)

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图 3 观测与模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的SHI，ALI，EAWMI时间序列

Fig. 3 Observational and predicted SHI, ALI and EAWMI initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

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图 4 观测以及BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的Niño3.4指数与海平面气压的相关系数

(红色、绿色和蓝色方框分别为SHI，ALI，EAWMI定义区域，黑色打点区域表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
(a)观测, (b)12月(LM0)起报，(c)11月(LM1)起报，(d)10月(LM2)起报，(e)9月(LM3)起报, (f)8月(LM4)起报

Fig. 4 TCC between Niño3.4 index and sea level pressure in observation and model prediction initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

(red, green, and blue boxes denote the regions of SHI, ALI and EAWMI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
(a)observation, (b)initiated in Dec(LM0), (c)initiated in Nov(LM1), (d)initiated in Oct(LM2), (e)initiated in Sep(LM3), (f)initiated in Aug(LM4)

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图 5 BCC_CSM1.1m模式11月起报的SHI(a)、ALI(b)、EAWMI(c)区域的PCC技巧与Niño3.4指数绝对值散点分布及其线性拟合线

Fig. 5 Scatter plots of PCC skill against absolute Niño3.4 index and its linear fitting line for SHI(a), ALI(b) and EAWMI(c) region initiated in Nov

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图 6 观测与BCC_CSM1.1m模式10—11月(LM2~LM1)起报的冬季SHI与观测和BCC_CSM1.1m模式10—11月起报的12月、1月0~10 cm土壤温度的相关系数

(红色方框为SHI定义区域，黑色打点表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
(a)观测的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度，(b)观测的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度，(c)10月起报的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度，(d)10月起报的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度，(e)11月起报的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度，(f)11月起报的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度

Fig. 6 TCC between observed and BCC_CSM1.1m predicted winter SHI from Oct to Nov(LM2-LM1) and 0-10 cm soil temperature in Dec and Jan

(red box denotes region of SHI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
(a)observed winter SHI and soil temperature in Dec, (b)observed winter SHI and soil temperature in Jan, (c)winter SHI initiated in Oct and soil temperature in Dec, (d)winter SHI initiated in Oct and soil temperature in Jan, (e)winter SHI initiated in Nov and soil temperature in Dec, (f)winter SHI initited in Nov and soil temperature in Jan

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图 7 BCC_CSM1.1m模式11月(LM1)(a)和12月(LM0)(b)起报的冬季SHI区域海平面气压PCC技巧与观测的12月土壤温度异常散点分布及其线性拟合线

(星型点代表超强厄尔尼诺年冬季结果)

Fig. 7 Scatter plots of PCC skill against soil temperature anomaly and its linear fitting line for SHI region initiated in Nov(LM1)(a) and Dec(LM0)(b)

(hollow stars denote the strong El Niño year)

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BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230103

通信作者:
周放，邮箱：zhouf@nuist.edu.cn

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Predication of Typical Winter Circulation Systems Based on BCC_CSM1.1m Model

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留言板

BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230103

通信作者: 周放，邮箱：zhouf@nuist.edu.cn

计量

出版历程

Predication of Typical Winter Circulation Systems Based on BCC_CSM1.1m Model

计量

出版历程

目录

通信作者:
周放，邮箱：zhouf@nuist.edu.cn