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BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

张智超 周放 张浩鑫 周辰光 王欣

张智超, 周放, 张浩鑫, 等. BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(1): 27-38. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230103..
引用本文: 张智超, 周放, 张浩鑫, 等. BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(1): 27-38. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230103.
Zhang Zhichao, Zhou Fang, Zhang Haoxin, et al. Predication of typical winter circulation systems based on BCC_CSM1.1m model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(1): 27-38. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230103.
Citation: Zhang Zhichao, Zhou Fang, Zhang Haoxin, et al. Predication of typical winter circulation systems based on BCC_CSM1.1m model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(1): 27-38. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230103.

BCC_CSM1.1m对冬季典型环流系统的预测评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230103
资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 41905062

详细信息
    通信作者:

    周放,邮箱:zhouf@nuist.edu.cn

Predication of Typical Winter Circulation Systems Based on BCC_CSM1.1m Model

  • 摘要: 基于国家气候中心气候系统模式1.1版本(BCC_CSM1.1m)的历史回报数据,利用时间相关系数和均方根误差等确定性技巧评分,对西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚冬季风3种东亚地区冬季典型环流系统的预报技巧进行检验评估,并通过时间序列分析和空间相关系数等方法,分析东亚地区冬季典型环流系统的可预报性来源。结果表明:由于模式对热带海洋和北太平洋海平面气压的预测偏差小、对欧亚大陆的预测偏差大,模式对阿留申低压、东亚冬季风的预测技巧高于西伯利亚高压。进一步分析表明:厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)是阿留申低压和东亚冬季风的重要可预报性来源,而土壤温度是西伯利亚高压的重要可预报性来源,并受ENSO调制。此外,东亚冬季风的预报技巧也受到西伯利亚高压预报技巧的制约。
  • 图  1  BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的冬季SHI,ALI,EAWMI的预报技巧

    (虚线和点划线分别表示0.05和0.01显著性水平)

    Fig. 1  Prediction skills of SHI, ALI and EAWMI initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

    (the dashed line and dotted line denote the levels of 0.05 and 0.01, respectively)

    图  2  BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至9月(LM0~LM3)起报的冬季海平面气压的TCC技巧

    (红色、绿色和蓝色方框分别为SHI, ALI, EAWMI定义区域,黑色打点区域表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
    (a)12月(LM0)起报,(b)11月(LM1)起报,(c)10月(LM2)起报,(d)9月(LM3)起报

    Fig. 2  TCC skills in winter sea level pressure initiated from Dec to Sep(LM0-LM3) in BCC_CSM1.1m

    (red, green, and blue boxes denote regions of SHI, ALI and EAWMI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
    (a)Dec(LM0), (b)Nov(LM1), (c)Oct(LM2), (d)Sep(LM3)

    图  3  观测与模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的SHI,ALI,EAWMI时间序列

    Fig. 3  Observational and predicted SHI, ALI and EAWMI initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

    图  4  观测以及BCC_CSM1.1m模式12月至8月(LM0~LM4)起报的Niño3.4指数与海平面气压的相关系数

    (红色、绿色和蓝色方框分别为SHI,ALI,EAWMI定义区域,黑色打点区域表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
    (a)观测, (b)12月(LM0)起报,(c)11月(LM1)起报,(d)10月(LM2)起报,(e)9月(LM3)起报, (f)8月(LM4)起报

    Fig. 4  TCC between Niño3.4 index and sea level pressure in observation and model prediction initiated from Dec to Aug(LM0-LM4)

    (red, green, and blue boxes denote the regions of SHI, ALI and EAWMI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
    (a)observation, (b)initiated in Dec(LM0), (c)initiated in Nov(LM1), (d)initiated in Oct(LM2), (e)initiated in Sep(LM3), (f)initiated in Aug(LM4)

    图  5  BCC_CSM1.1m模式11月起报的SHI(a)、ALI(b)、EAWMI(c)区域的PCC技巧与Niño3.4指数绝对值散点分布及其线性拟合线

    Fig. 5  Scatter plots of PCC skill against absolute Niño3.4 index and its linear fitting line for SHI(a), ALI(b) and EAWMI(c) region initiated in Nov

    图  6  观测与BCC_CSM1.1m模式10—11月(LM2~LM1)起报的冬季SHI与观测和BCC_CSM1.1m模式10—11月起报的12月、1月0~10 cm土壤温度的相关系数

    (红色方框为SHI定义区域,黑色打点表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)
    (a)观测的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度,(b)观测的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度,(c)10月起报的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度,(d)10月起报的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度,(e)11月起报的冬季SHI与12月土壤温度,(f)11月起报的冬季SHI与1月土壤温度

    Fig. 6  TCC between observed and BCC_CSM1.1m predicted winter SHI from Oct to Nov(LM2-LM1) and 0-10 cm soil temperature in Dec and Jan

    (red box denotes region of SHI, dotted area denotes TCC passing the test of 0.05 level)
    (a)observed winter SHI and soil temperature in Dec, (b)observed winter SHI and soil temperature in Jan, (c)winter SHI initiated in Oct and soil temperature in Dec, (d)winter SHI initiated in Oct and soil temperature in Jan, (e)winter SHI initiated in Nov and soil temperature in Dec, (f)winter SHI initited in Nov and soil temperature in Jan

    图  7  BCC_CSM1.1m模式11月(LM1)(a)和12月(LM0)(b)起报的冬季SHI区域海平面气压PCC技巧与观测的12月土壤温度异常散点分布及其线性拟合线

    (星型点代表超强厄尔尼诺年冬季结果)

    Fig. 7  Scatter plots of PCC skill against soil temperature anomaly and its linear fitting line for SHI region initiated in Nov(LM1)(a) and Dec(LM0)(b)

    (hollow stars denote the strong El Niño year)

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  • 收稿日期:  2022-08-06
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