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Application of Scale-adaptive Dust Emission Scheme to CMA-CUACE/Dust
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摘要: 沙尘暴是影响我国重要的灾害性天气之一,针对中国气象局亚洲沙尘暴数值预报系统CMA-CUACE/Dust(China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Environment for Dust)的沙尘质量浓度在中亚高估、蒙古北部低估、在我国消散过快以及极端沙尘暴预报峰值偏低等问题,应用与模式格距匹配的尺度适应性起沙机制并更新风蚀资料库对模式进行改进。对2021年3月13—17日东亚最强沙尘暴个例和2023年3—5月与业务运行环境一致的连续预报试验表明,改进后的模式(CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5)有效改善了上述不足,极端沙尘暴过程传输至我国后的沙尘质量浓度峰值与观测接近。连续预报试验TS(threat score)评分显示:CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5预报一致性和连续性较好,1~5 d不同时效预报TS评分明显高于改进前和韩国模式ADAM(the Asian Dust Aerosol Model),漏报率明显降低,对2023年5次沙尘过程的4次预报TS评分高于0.3,部分过程超过0.5。
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关键词:
- 沙尘暴数值预报;
- CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5;
- 尺度适应性;
- 起沙机制;
- 风蚀资料库
Abstract: Sand and dust storms are significant natural disasters which affect East Asia and China in spring, occurring from March to May. Performances of CMA-CUACE/Dust, an operational Asian sand and dust storm numerical forecasting system of CMA since 2006, are analyzed. It’s found that the model overestimates in Central Asia, underestimates in northern Mongolia, and diffuses too quickly in downwind areas far away from the source area, especially in Northern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan, resulting in low peak values or less lingering time there for very extreme sand and dust storm events. A scale-adaptive dust emission scheme is applied by resolving the mean wind speed of the model grid into sectional one which can account for values larger than the mean value by Weibull integration function. This significant aspect is crucial because the dust emission is the third power of the wind in the dust emission scheme. New wind erosion database is also adopted which consists of the updated desertification by using twenty-year surface data and new parameters deduced from site observations in the heart of Gobi Desert, determining the size distribution of the emitted dust together with the soil texture data sampling from main deserts in China.After evaluation for the strongest sand and dust episode of 13-17 in March 2021 in East Asia in the past decade, and the consistent run in the same operational environment from 1 March to 31 May in 2023, it is found that the updated CMA-CUACE/Dust effectively improves disadvantages such as overestimation in Central Asia, underestimation in northern Mongolia, and rapid dissipation in China. The predicted peak dust concentration of the extreme episode closely matches observations in China both in the source area and in Shanghai after a 4-day transportation. Threat score (TS) of three-month forecast run also indicates that the improved model shows good consistency and continuity in forecast results across various forecast lengths. TS for 1-5 days with different forecast lengths is significantly higher than that of the previous operational system and surpasses those of Korean dust model—ADAM (the Asian Dust Aerosol Model). Furthermore, the missing rate is significantly reduced, while the false alarm rate remains almost unchanged. TS for episodes beyond the level of sand and storms are all above 0.3, with some exceeding 0.5. All these findings show that the improved model performs much better than the previous one. -
图 1 2021年3月14日和15日14 :00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5地面沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)和观测(符号)
Fig. 1 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 1400 BT 14 Mar and 1400 BT 15 Mar in 2021
图 1 2021年3月14日和15日14 :00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5地面沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)和观测(符号)
Fig. 1 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 1400 BT 14 Mar and 1400 BT 15 Mar in 2021
图 2 2021年3月17日08:00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5地面沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)和观测(符号)
Fig. 2 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 0800 BT 17 Mar 2021
图 2 2021年3月17日08:00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5地面沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)和观测(符号)
Fig. 2 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 0800 BT 17 Mar 2021
图 3 2021年3月13日08:00—18日02:00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5北京和上海地面沙尘质量浓度预报和观测
Fig. 3 Forecasted dust concentration by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation in Beijing and Shanghai from 0800 BT 13 Mar to 0200 BT 18 Mar in 2021
图 3 2021年3月13日08:00—18日02:00 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5北京和上海地面沙尘质量浓度预报和观测
Fig. 3 Forecasted dust concentration by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation in Beijing and Shanghai from 0800 BT 13 Mar to 0200 BT 18 Mar in 2021
图 4 2023年3—5月CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5和ADAM不同时效预报的TS评分、漏报率和空报率
Fig. 4 Thread score, missing rate and false rate for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM from Mar to May in 2023
图 4 2023年3—5月CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5和ADAM不同时效预报的TS评分、漏报率和空报率
Fig. 4 Thread score, missing rate and false rate for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM from Mar to May in 2023
图 5 2023年春季5次沙尘暴过程的CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5和ADAM预报TS评分、空报率和漏报率
Fig. 5 Threat score, missing rate and false rate of five episodes of sand and dust storms in spring of 2023 for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM
图 5 2023年春季5次沙尘暴过程的CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5和ADAM预报TS评分、空报率和漏报率
Fig. 5 Threat score, missing rate and false rate of five episodes of sand and dust storms in spring of 2023 for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM
图 6 2023年3月19—24日沙尘暴过程起沙阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5PM10质量浓度预报(填色)和天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 6 Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in onset stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 6 2023年3月19—24日沙尘暴过程起沙阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5PM10质量浓度预报(填色)和天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 6 Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in onset stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 7 2023年3月19—24日沙尘暴过程传输阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5PM10质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 7 Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in transportation stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 7 2023年3月19—24日沙尘暴过程传输阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0、CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5PM10质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 7 Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in transportation stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 8 2023年4月9—13日沙尘暴过程CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 8 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) of sand and dust storm event from 9 Apr to 13 Apr in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 8 2023年4月9—13日沙尘暴过程CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 8 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) of sand and dust storm event from 9 Apr to 13 Apr in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 9 2023年5月18—21日沙尘暴过程起沙阶段和传输阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 9 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) in onset and transportation stages of sand and dust event from 18 May to 21 May in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
图 9 2023年5月18—21日沙尘暴过程起沙阶段和传输阶段CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5沙尘质量浓度预报(填色)与天气现象观测(符号)
Fig. 9 Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) in onset and transportation stages of sand and dust event from 18 May to 21 May in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)
表 1 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5中MBA机制释放沙尘的三模态分布的几何平均直径(d)、几何标准差(σ)和缔结动能(e)
Table 1 Geometric mean diameter(d), geometric standard deviation(σ) and binding energy(e) of three modes of dust released in MBA scheme in CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5
分布参数 模态Ⅰ 模态Ⅱ 模态Ⅲ V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 d/μm 1.50 5.75 6.70 13.75 14.2 27.5 σ 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 e/(g·cm2·s-2) 3.61 3.61 3.52 3.52 3.42 3.42 
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表 1 CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0和CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5中MBA机制释放沙尘的三模态分布的几何平均直径(d)、几何标准差(σ)和缔结动能(e)
Table 1 Geometric mean diameter(d), geometric standard deviation(σ) and binding energy(e) of three modes of dust released in MBA scheme in CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5
分布参数 模态Ⅰ 模态Ⅱ 模态Ⅲ V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 d/μm 1.50 5.75 6.70 13.75 14.2 27.5 σ 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 e/(g·cm2·s-2) 3.61 3.61 3.52 3.52 3.42 3.42
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表 2 我国春季沙尘强度等级与PM10质量浓度(单位：μg·m-3)的转换阈值
Table 2 Thresholds of PM10 concentration(unit:μg·m-3) for spring dust intensity in China
地区 扬沙或浮尘 沙尘暴 强沙尘暴 特强沙尘暴 新疆地区 [245, 4890] [4891, 12388] [12389, 16235] 不低于16236 西北地区 [408, 6031] [6032, 8150] 不低于8151 东北地区 [408, 3260] [3261, 7824] 不低于7825 其余地区 [408, 4727] [4728, 7172] 不低于7173
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表 2 我国春季沙尘强度等级与PM10质量浓度(单位：μg·m-3)的转换阈值
Table 2 Thresholds of PM10 concentration(unit:μg·m-3) for spring dust intensity in China
地区 扬沙或浮尘 沙尘暴 强沙尘暴 特强沙尘暴 新疆地区 [245, 4890] [4891, 12388] [12389, 16235] 不低于16236 西北地区 [408, 6031] [6032, 8150] 不低于8151 东北地区 [408, 3260] [3261, 7824] 不低于7825 其余地区 [408, 4727] [4728, 7172] 不低于7173
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表 3 2023年春季3—5月沙尘暴及以上级别过程
Table 3 Processes above sand and dust storm from Mar to May in 2023
编号 起止时间 级别 主要影响系统 202306 03-19—03-24 强沙尘暴 地面冷锋、蒙古气旋 202308 04-09—04-13 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋 202310 04-18—04-21 强沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋 202312 04-27—04-29 沙尘暴 冷锋 202314 05-18—05-21 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋、冷锋
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表 3 2023年春季3—5月沙尘暴及以上级别过程
Table 3 Processes above sand and dust storm from Mar to May in 2023
编号 起止时间 级别 主要影响系统 202306 03-19—03-24 强沙尘暴 地面冷锋、蒙古气旋 202308 04-09—04-13 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋 202310 04-18—04-21 强沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋 202312 04-27—04-29 沙尘暴 冷锋 202314 05-18—05-21 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋、冷锋
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