Vol.11, NO.4, 2000

Display Method:
NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON THE PRECIPITATION AND VARIATION OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
Liu Huanzhu, Yao Mingming
2000, 11(4): 385-391.
Abstract:

The operational numerical weather forecasting model T63 is employed to study the impacts of precipitation on the movement of the anticyclone overthe Western Pacific. Sensitivity experiments are designed by using different vertical profiles ofconvective latent heating. Results show that in response to the change of vertically non-uniform diabatic heating, the in-situ wind fields change correspondingly and thus the location and intensity of the subtropical high are changed. Meanwhile, the changed subtropical high also affects the location of precipitation. It is then concluded that in short and medium terms, there exists interaction between precipitation and variation of the subtropical high.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF TRANSVERSAL WAVE INSTABILITY FOR THE "96.1" SNOWSTORM EVENT
Wang Wen, Chang Linsheng
2000, 11(4): 392-399.
Abstract:
Using the output data of an MM4 mesoscale numerical model which fairly well simulated the developing structure and the evolution of the "96.1" snow storm event over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a nonlinear transversal wave instability model and simulation system is developed to validate the formation mechanism of the snow storm process. The results show that the fields of vertical velocity are coincident with not only with those of the stream function, but also with the observations. It indicates that the transversal wave instability is substantially a formation mechanism for the occurrence of the "96.1" snow storm.
KINETIC ENERGY BUDGET OF SUMMER MONSOON OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE BAY OF BENGAL IN 1998
Liang Jianyin, Wu Shangsen
2000, 11(4): 400-409.
Abstract:
With the assimilation data of the IOP period of South China Sea Monsoon Experiment, the comparison and study of mechanisms responsible for the generation, evolution laws and maintenance of kinetic energy in the South China Sea (Region C) and the Bay of Bengal (Region B) are made. The analysis shows that mean kinetic energy of the general flow in Region B grows explosively and the kinetic energy increases gradually with amplitude smaller than that in Region B when monsoon breaks out. The transport of kinetic energy in the cross-equatorial flow is important for the establishment of southwest monsoon in Region B. The kinetic energy flowing into the west boundary in Region C is also significant for the establishment of monsoon there. During the prevalence of monsoon, the evolution and variation of kinetic energy in southwest monsoon in Region B mainly depend on the contribution of divergence of horizontal flux while the kinetic-energy generating terms within Region C play the maximum role. For the 850 hPa layer, however, the baro clinic generation of kinetic energy plays a dominant role in Region B but more kinetic energy is reduced by the baro tropic process; energy is produced baro trocally in Region C. In the upper layers of the troposphere in both regions can be found the outflow of kinetic energy, but in the lower layers inflow of energy can be found in Region B and outflow of energy be found in Region C.
NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON QUALITY CONTROL AND VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION OF SATELLITE IMAGE RETRIEVAL
Min Jinzhong, Sheng Tongli, Zhen Haishan, Shu Linping
2000, 11(4): 410-418.
Abstract:

According to the characteristics of numerical GMS infrared imagery the improved statistic retrievalmethod is applied to estim the temperature and humidity. Several schemes are developed to control the quality of retrieved temperature and humidity in order to correct the errors from the image and the retrieval scheme. The variational assimilation is performed of the corrected retrieval field with the conventional observations followed by a control expenment by the MM4 model. Results show that the quality control is critical to the forecasting based onthe rationaldesigned function. The correction with the grid values is better than that of the conventional observation, and with the systematic error correction to the retrieval field included the accuracy of rainfall forecasting is improved. It is worth notice that the scheme with satellite image included can obviously improve the intensity and region forecasting of model rainfall and the prediction is more close to measured precipitation as compared with that only using the convendonal observations.

ENSO SIMULATED BY A HYBRID COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL AND ITS MECHANISMS
Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi
2000, 11(4): 419-429.
Abstract:
A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is developed, with which a 45-year simulation is performed. Analysis shows that the model can reproduce ENSO interannual variability over the tropical Pacific. The principal period is about 4 to 5 years. The negative feedback mechanism of ENSO is investigated. The results show that the damping of warm phase can be attributed to the strength ening of the cold water upwelling accompanied with the strong anomalous easterly over the eastern Pacific during the developing period of El Nino and the cold advection along the equator. The damping of cold phase is mainly related to the delaying effects of the equatorial wave reflection.
THE SENSATION OF HUMAN TO TEMPERATURE& HUMILITY& WIND SPEED AND THE CLOTHING
Xu Dahai, Zhu Rong
2000, 11(4): 430-439.
Abstract:
Some indexes such as mean skin temperature (TS), effective temperature, discomfort index (DI) and clothing index (CI) are able to quantilize the sensations of human to the heat in an environment with various combinations of air temperature, humility and wind. These indexes are analyzed in detail to show the specific scopes in which each index could work well respectively. The results calculated by those indexes with the meteorological data from Wuhan, are applied to compare with the synch ronic number of sunstroke among residents of the city. The demarcation of these indexes for the sensation of residents in summer are given based on the analyzes stated above. Finally the prediction problems of these indexes are discussed.
AN OBJECTIVE METHOD FOR ANALYZING THE HORIZON OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR STATIONS
Wan Yufa, Yang Hongping, Xiao Yanjiao, Wu Cuihong, Xu Xiangming
2000, 11(4): 440-447.
Abstract:
A software for analyzing objectively the horizon of Doppler weather radar stations is developed. According to the geographic information of the selected radar station and its periphery, the software can calculate speedily and display automatically the barricaded elevation map as well as the range-azimuth distribution maps for different heights of a single radar station and the composite map for multiple radars under the Mercator or Lambert projection mode. It provides an objective tool to analyze and appraise the possible horizon of Doppler radars, the combined coverage effect of the conjoint radar network and the quantitative application of radar data.
FEATURES OF NORTHERN SPRING ATMOSPHERIC OZONE VARIATION AND ITS EFFECT ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE AND CIRCULATION
Zhu Qiangen, Guo Pinwen
2000, 11(4): 448-454.
Abstract:
Pronounced change has been found in the trend of total ozone in an atmosphere column at extra-tropics north of 40°N around 1987, which abruptly reduced for much of the studied area, accompanied by the sudden rise (drop) in the troposphere (stratospheric) mean temperature and in the 300 hPa (30 hPa) height. Meanwhile, unexpected increase of total O3 occurred over the northern North Atlantic and Huson Bay, accompanied by the drop (rise) of the tropospheric (stratospheric) mean temperature and geopotential height at 300 hPa (30 hPa). The unexpected reduction of 10-30 DU ozone in NE China was associated with the abrupt increase (decrease) of 1-2 ℃ in the troposphere (stratosphere) mean temperature there over. The variation in the trend of the atmospheric temperature and circulation was mainly attributed to the total ozone the atmosphere.
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION WITH SELF-MEMORIAL SPECTRAL MODEL
Cao Hongxing, Gu Xiangqian
2000, 11(4): 455-466.
Abstract:
Applying a memory concept to numerical weather prediction and introducing a memorial function, an appropriate difference-integral equation which is called a selfmemorization one has been formulated. Meanwhile the spherical harmonic representation of the equation is drieved too. Setting up and solving the equation establish a new approach of numerical weather prediction. Using T42L9 spectral model as a dynamic kernel, a global self-memorial T42 model (SMT42) was setup, with which several cases of 15-day integration experiments were carried out. Compared with T42, SMT42 is much better in 500 hPa forecast in daily up to 15 days, whose root mean square error (RMSE) is significantly reduced.
PHYSICAL IMPLICATION OF MEMORY COEFFIENTS IN REGIONAL CLIMATIC SELF-MEMORIAL MODEL AND FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER
Wei Fengying, Feng Guolin, Cao Hongxing
2000, 11(4): 467-473.
Abstract:
The boundary conditions and calculating scheme of the regional climatic Self-Memorial model, were adjusted to operational forecast for seasonal precipitation in summer in China and the numerical experiments were carried out. The periodic variation of the memory coefficients in the model was analyzed and potential relationship between the coefficients and the other physical factors in the climatic system were also discussed. The hindcasts for 1988 to 1997 and operational forecast for 1998 show that the model is useful in forecasting seasonal precipitation.
ESTABLISHMENT OF PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH USING NEURAL NETWORK CALCULATION METHOD
Zhang Ren, Jiang Guorong, Yu Zhihao, Jiang Quanrong
2000, 11(4): 474-483.
Abstract:
Based on the observational facts and correlative study results about the equatorial SST and Subtropical High, a prediction model between West-Pacific Subtropical High and equatorial SST is established by using the BP neural network model and its improved calculation method. By using this model, we can predict Subtropical High's basic changes and trend ahead of 3 months according to the early data of equatorial SST and subtropical high. This prediction model has better coupling precision. The forecasting accuracy and valid time of this model are meaningful in application.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTH ROTATION SPEED AND TEMPERATURE OF NORTHEAST CHINA IN SUMMER
Zhang Shuqing
2000, 11(4): 484-490.
Abstract:
The relationship between temperature of Northeast China in summer and the earth rotation speed is studied. The results indicate that temperature of Northeast China is lower when earth rotation speed decreases and higher when earth rotation speed increases. The temperature of Northeast China in summer has also relevance to the phases of amplitude of polar motion.
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR TRANSPORTATION OVER THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATION WITH THE RUN-OFF IN 1997 AND 1998
Ma Lan, Xu Xi, Gao Yun, Ma Zailan
2000, 11(4): 491-498.
Abstract:
Using the radiosonde data in summer of 1997 to 1998, the water vapor flux over the upper reaches of the Changjiang River from 925 hPa to 200 hPa are calculated. The relationship between the inflow of water vapor and the run-off over the area and contrast analysis between 1997 and 1998 is made based on the five-day and ten-day averages of net inflow water vapor. The statistical dependence is described and the relation between water vapor transportation and circulation situation is discussed.
A STUDY OF MODELS FOR MONITORING WINTER DROUGHT AND HEAVY SNOW AND THE DETERMINATION OF GRADING INDEXES IN THE ANIMAL HUSBANDRY AREA OF THE INNER MONGOLIA AUTONOMOUS REGION
Li Youwen, Liu Shoudong
2000, 11(4): 499-504.
Abstract:
Based on the grassland-livestock-atmosphere system analysis, monitoring models for winter drought and heavy snow were established. Some primary factors (such as continuous snow-free days, possible incidence periods, maximum snow depth and continuous snow-covering days) and basic factors (such as the stress-resistance index of livestock and the average depth of mixture grass before winter) are selected in building the models. Grading indexes for the disasters were determined according to appraisal coefficients, livestock's performance and grazing condition. The verifications show that both the monitoring models and the grading indexes could be put to practical use.
A DYNAMIC STUDY OF OCEAN EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPMENT
Zhang Yonggang, Zhang Lei, Lu Meizhong, Ouyang Ziji
2000, 11(4): 505-508.
Abstract:
A diagnostic analysis of two explosive cyclogenesis and a general cyclone over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 1979 is made by using both potential vorticity and E-P flux. The analysis results demonstrate that explosive cyclogenesis development is caused by the concentrated condensation heating resulted from abnormal stratospheric potential vorticity and tropospheric turbulence. The main dynamic mechanism is upper-level forcing and middle-tropospheric aqueous vapor transportation, which result in large-scale convergence condensation latent heating.